Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,924 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 22/4/13 |
2 weeks ago 6/5/13 |
Last week 13/5/13 |
This week 20/5/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
33% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Impact of Budget
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for you personally?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for average working people?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for Australian businesses?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for the Australian economy overall?
|
You |
Working people |
Australian |
Economy |
|||||||||||
|
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
| Total good |
22% |
11% |
17% |
13% |
31% |
17% |
27% |
20% |
10% |
15% |
36% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
| Total bad |
26% |
29% |
26% |
36% |
24% |
40% |
32% |
25% |
43% |
33% |
28% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
| Very good |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
| Good |
19% |
9% |
15% |
11% |
27% |
15% |
24% |
17% |
9% |
13% |
30% |
23% |
22% |
21% |
| Neither good nor bad |
33% |
44% |
44% |
38% |
33% |
30% |
9% |
31% |
29% |
32% |
10% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
| Bad |
18% |
21% |
17% |
22% |
19% |
27% |
22% |
19% |
28% |
20% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
21% |
| Very bad |
8% |
8% |
9% |
14% |
5% |
13% |
10% |
6% |
15% |
13% |
10% |
8% |
11% |
13% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
31% |
23% |
18% |
19% |
26% |
20% |
17% |
15% |
In terms of the economy overall, there was a similar response to the 2013 budget as to the last two year’s budgets. 26% (no change from last year) thought the budget was good for the economy and 34% (up 2%) thought it was bad. 56% of Labor voters thought the budget was good for the economy and 8% bad while only 8% of Liberal/national voters thought it was good and 56% bad.
38% of respondents thought the Federal budget was neither good nor bad for them personally – 13% (down 4% on last year) said it was good and 36% (up 10%) bad. 51% of those aged 55+ thought it was neither.
17% (down 14%) thought it was good for working people and 40% (up 16%) thought it was bad.
15% (up 5%) thought the budget was good for businesses, 33% (down 10%) bad and 32% said it was neither.
Government spending cuts
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, not enough or about the right amount?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Cut spending too much |
20% |
20% |
19% |
23% |
| Not cut spending enough |
34% |
13% |
54% |
25% |
| Cut spending about right amount |
21% |
42% |
9% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
25% |
18% |
23% |
34% thought that the Federal budget had not cut Government spending enough. 20% thought it had cut spending too much and 21% thought it had cut spending about right.
42% of Labor voters thought the spending cuts were about right while 54% of Liberal/National voters thought spending had not been cut enough.
Liberal Party and WorkChoices
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
|
31 May 10 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
18
|
Total 20 May |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Total likely |
58% |
56% |
51% |
53% |
51% |
48% |
51% |
78% |
28% |
84% |
50% |
47% |
| Total unlikely |
21% |
24% |
27% |
22% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
9% |
48% |
7% |
29% |
25% |
| Very likely |
28% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
25% |
26% |
49% |
5% |
57% |
25% |
19% |
| Quite likely |
30% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
28% |
23% |
25% |
29% |
23% |
27% |
25% |
28% |
| Not very likely |
18% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
5% |
29% |
7% |
18% |
14% |
| Not at all likely |
3% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
4% |
19% |
- |
11% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
20% |
22% |
26% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
12% |
24% |
9% |
22% |
28% |
Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in March. 51% (up 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (down 1%) think it is unlikely.
78% (up 11%) of Labor voters and 84% (up 17%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters split 28% likely (down 3%) to 48% unlikely (up 4%).
Concern about Liberals bringing back WorkChoices
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
|
31 May 10 |
12 July |
21 Nov 11 |
23 Jul 12 |
3 |
18 Mar 13 |
Total 20 May |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
Work full time |
Work part time |
|
| Very concerned |
28% |
29% |
26% |
30% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
50% |
5% |
62% |
25% |
24% |
| Quite concerned |
17% |
19% |
15% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
15% |
22% |
12% |
15% |
16% |
13% |
| A little concerned |
20% |
16% |
20% |
15% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
12% |
22% |
5% |
20% |
18% |
| Not concerned |
24% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
48% |
13% |
27% |
25% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
11% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
14% |
8% |
14% |
4% |
11% |
19% |
Concern about the re-introduction of WorkChoices has not changed significantly since this question was last asked in March. 41% (down 2%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 44% (up 2%) were only a little or not concerned.
72% of Labor voters and 77% of Greens voters would be concerned. 70% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 17% concerned. 41% of full-time workers and 37% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.
45% of those aged 25-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.
Importance of unions
Q. And how important are unions for Australian working people today?
|
19 Mar 2012 |
10 Sept 12 |
Total 20 May 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Work full time |
Work part time |
|
| Total important |
56% |
52% |
56% |
80% |
38% |
70% |
54% |
57% |
| Total not Important |
35% |
38% |
36% |
12% |
59% |
23% |
39% |
36% |
| Very important |
19% |
16% |
21% |
35% |
8% |
38% |
18% |
26% |
| Quite important |
37% |
36% |
35% |
45% |
30% |
32% |
36% |
31% |
| Not very important |
27% |
28% |
24% |
11% |
36% |
18% |
25% |
27% |
| Not at all important |
8% |
10% |
12% |
1% |
23% |
5% |
14% |
9% |
| Don’t know |
9% |
10% |
8% |
7% |
3% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
The majority of respondents regarded unions to be important for Australian working people today (56%), whilst 36% believe that they were not important. Belief that they are important increased 4 points from 52% in September 2012 to 56% in this week’s results.
80% of Labor voters and 70% of Greens voters believed that unions were important for Australian working people today, while Coalition voters were the most likely to regard unions as not important (59%).
The majority of full time workers (54%) and part time workers (57%) regarded unions as important for Australian working people today.
Better or worse off with stronger unions
Q. Overall, would workers be better off or worse off if unions in Australia were stronger?
|
10 Sept 12 |
Total 20 May 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Work full time |
Work part time |
|
| Total better off |
39% |
43% |
65% |
28% |
61% |
43% |
44% |
| Total worse off |
30% |
29% |
11% |
50% |
10% |
32% |
28% |
| A lot better off |
13% |
14% |
23% |
7% |
26% |
15% |
14% |
| A little better off |
26% |
29% |
42% |
21% |
35% |
28% |
30% |
| A little worse off |
15% |
14% |
9% |
19% |
9% |
15% |
16% |
| A lot worse off |
15% |
15% |
2% |
31% |
1% |
17% |
12% |
| Make no difference |
15% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
16% |
13% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
14% |
13% |
10% |
12% |
12% |
17% |
The perception that workers would be better off with stronger unions has increased since this question was asked in September last year. 43% (up 4%) felt that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger and 29% (down 1%) that believed workers would be worse off.
By voting intention, 65% of Labor voters and 61% of Greens voters believed that workers would be better off while Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe that workers would be worse off (50%).
51% of respondents on incomes of $600-$1,000pw thought that workers would be better off with stronger unions.
Penalty rates
Q. Do you think people who are required to work outside of normal hours – like night shifts, weekends or public holidays – should receive a higher hourly rate of pay?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes |
81% |
88% |
74% |
92% |
| No |
12% |
7% |
19% |
5% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
5% |
7% |
3% |
81% of respondents agreed that people who are required to work outside of normal hours – like night shifts, weekends or public holidays – should receive a higher hourly rate of pay.
79% of full-time workers and 88% of part-time workers agreed.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,945 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 15/4/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/4/13 |
Last week 6/5/13 |
This week 13/5/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
33% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 Apr |
13 May |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
34% |
34% |
32% |
37% |
41% |
36% |
36% |
34% |
38% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
53% |
49% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
54% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
28% |
28% |
26% |
27% |
32% |
29% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
29% |
25% |
22% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
25% |
29% |
34% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
32% |
33% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
38% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 2%) disapprove – a 6-point change in net rating from -22 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.
78% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 16% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents no change with men and an improvement with women (from -25 to -13).
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 Apr |
13 May |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
40% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
54% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
24% |
18% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
30% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
28% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -10 over the last 4 weeks, Tony Abbott’s best rating since July 2011.
77% (up 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 8%) disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -9 to -7 and with women from -22 to -13.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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