Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 26, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,823 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 29/7/14

2 weeks ago

12/8/14

Last week

19/8/14

This week

26/8/14

Liberal

 

38%

38%

37%

36%

National

2%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

41%

41%

40%

39%

Labor

33.4%

38%

39%

38%

37%

Greens

8.6%

9%

8%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

6%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

7%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 29/7/14

2 weeks ago

12/8/14

Last week

19/8/14

This week

26/8/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

49%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

51%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Australian Constitution

Aug 26, 2014

Q. If a referendum was held to include recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Australian Constitution, would you vote for or against? 

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Vote for

58%

69%

50%

74%

50%

Vote against

10%

6%

16%

2%

15%

Not sure

32%

24%

35%

24%

35%


58% would vote in a referendum to include recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Australian Constitution and only 10% would vote against. 32% were not sure how they would vote.

74% of Greens voters and 69% of Labor voters would vote for the change compared to 50% of Liberal/National voters.

Social Class

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Do you believe social classes still exist in Australia? 

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Income under $600pw

Income $600 – $1,000pw

Income $1,000 – $1,600pw

Income $1,600+

Yes

79%

82%

78%

81%

78%

74%

80%

77%

84%

No

7%

5%

9%

8%

8%

8%

6%

9%

5%

Don’t know

14%

12%

13%

11%

15%

18%

14%

14%

11%

79% agreed that social class still exists in Australia – only 7% disagreed. There was little variation across voter and demographic groups.

Social Class Identification

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Do you consider yourself -

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Income under $600
pw

Income $600 – $1,000
pw

Income $1,000 – $1,600
pw

Income $1,600+

 

April 2013

Working class

31%

36%

27%

24%

38%

39%

42%

32%

24%

33%

Middle class

49%

46%

58%

51%

39%

29%

36%

54%

64%

53%

Upper class

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

2%

*

1%

3%

2%

None of them

13%

11%

10%

16%

17%

25%

17%

10%

6%

10%

Don’t know

6%

5%

3%

8%

3%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

49% of respondents described themselves as “middle class” and 31% as “working class” – only 2% claimed to be “upper class”.

Those on higher incomes were more likely to identify as “middle class” while those on lower incomes were less likely to identify with any of these descriptions.

The results are not substantially different from those when this question was asked last year.

Parties and Social Class

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Whose interests do you think the Labor Party mainly represent? 

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Working class

Middle class

 

April 2013

Working class

41%

53%

39%

27%

35%

44%

45%

30%

Middle class

14%

18%

10%

27%

16%

10%

18%

16%

Upper class

8%

3%

10%

14%

13%

11%

6%

13%

All of them

8%

14%

3%

11%

6%

6%

8%

8%

None of them

16%

3%

30%

6%

19%

17%

15%

22%

Don’t know

13%

10%

8%

15%

11%

12%

8%

11%


41% believe that the Labor Party mainly represents working class people and 16% don’t think they represent any class. 53% of Labor voters think the Labor Party mainly represents the working class and 27% of Greens voters think they mainly represent the middle class. 30% of Liberal/National voters don’t think they represent any class.

44% of respondents who describe themselves as working class and 45% of those who say they are middle class think the Labor Party mainly represents the working class.

Since this question was asked in April 2013, the proportion thinking that Labor represents the working class has increased from 30% to 41%.

Parties and Social Class

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Whose interests do you think the Liberal Party mainly represent? 

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Working class

Middle class

 

April 2013

Working class

4%

2%

7%

-

3%

7%

3%

5%

Middle class

17%

7%

31%

12%

11%

13%

22%

20%

Upper class

47%

74%

20%

65%

55%

54%

49%

40%

All of them

14%

4%

32%

2%

8%

11%

15%

17%

None of them

8%

6%

6%

6%

10%

7%

5%

8%

Don’t know

11%

7%

4%

14%

13%

8%

7%

9%


47% believe that the Liberal Party mainly represents upper class people and 17% think they represent the middle class. 74% of Labor voters and 65% of Greens voters think the Liberal Party mainly represent the upper class. 31% of Liberal/National voters think they represent the middle class and 32% think they represent all classes.

54% of respondents who describe themselves as working class and 49% of those who say they are middle class think the Liberal Party mainly represents the upper class.

Since this question was asked in April 2013, the proportion thinking that the Liberals represent the upper class has increased from 40% to 47%.

Best Treasurer

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Which of the following do you think has been Australia’s best Treasurer?

  

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Paul Keating

23%

36%

12%

21%

29%

Peter Costello

30%

16%

54%

18%

24%

Wayne Swan

8%

16%

3%

8%

6%

Joe Hockey

5%

-

10%

1%

4%

Don’t know

35%

33%

21%

52%

38%

Of the four options given, 30% think Peter Costello has been Australia’s best Treasurer and 23% think Paul Keating had been the best Treasurer.

36% of Labor voters favour Paul Keating and 54% of Liberal/National voters favour Peter Costello.

Managing the economy

Aug 26, 2014

Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:

 

Labor

Liberal

No Difference

Don’t Know

Difference (Labor v. Liberal)

 

Difference May 2014

Representing the interests of Australian working families

48%

17%

25%

11%

+31%

+27%

Representing the interests of you and people like you

35%

27%

27%

11%

+8%

+10%

Standing up for the middle class in Australia

30%

28%

27%

15%

+2%

+14%

Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests

9%

59%

19%

13%

-50%

-41%

Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests

47%

15%

24%

14%

+32%

+29%

Handling the economy overall

23%

37%

27%

14%

-14%

-14%

Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups

34%

23%

27%

15%

+11%

+10%

Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business

24%

32%

27%

17%

-8%

-5%

Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class

25%

32%

28%

14%

-7%

+1%

Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most.

32%

27%

27%

14%

+5%

+8%

Labor was more likely to be selected as the party best at all of the items, except for ‘Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests’ (59% Liberal, 9% Labor), ‘Handling the economy overall’ (37% Liberal, 23% Labor), ‘Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business’ (32% Liberal, 24% Labor) and ‘Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class’ (32% Liberal, 25% Labor).

Since this question was asked in May, the main shifts have been for “Standing up for the middle class in Australia “ (Labor down 12%), “Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” (Labor down 8%) and “Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (Liberals up 9%).

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