Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 25, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,745 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 28/10/14

2 weeks ago

11/11/14

Last week

18/11/14

This week

25/11/14

Liberal

 

36%

36%

37%

38%

National

3%

4%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

40%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

38%

38%

39%

Greens

8.6%

9%

10%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

9%

9%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 28/10/14

2 weeks ago

11/11/14

Last week

18/11/14

This week

25/11/14

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

53%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

G20

Nov 25, 2014

Q. Australia hosted the G20 summit of world leaders in Brisbane last weekend. Which of the following is closest to your view? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

18 Nov

The G20 summit delivered real outcomes for Australia and the global economy

26%

23%

40%

24%

13%

16%

The G20 was an expensive talk fest, it’s unlikely to change anything

55%

63%

43%

65%

72%

62%

Don’t know

18%

14%

17%

11%

15%

21%

55% were more likely to agree that the G20 is an expensive talk fest, it’s unlikely to change anything and 26% agreed more that the G20 summit delivered real outcomes for Australia and the global economy. This represents a shift to a slightly more positive view of the G20 since this question was asked over the weekend of the G20.

Prime Minister’s performance at G20

Nov 25, 2014

Q. How would you rate the Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s performance at the G20?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total good

31%

11%

67%

4%

15%

Total poor

37%

59%

6%

75%

46%

Very good

9%

2%

22%

-

6%

Good

22%

9%

45%

4%

9%

Neither good nor poor

24%

23%

21%

20%

31%

Poor

13%

19%

6%

17%

15%

Very poor

24%

40%

*

58%

31%

Don’t know

9%

7%

5%

1%

9%

31% think that Tony Abbott’s performance at the G20 was good and 37% think it was poor – 24% think it was neither good nor poor.

Those most likely to rate his performance good were Liberal/National voters (67%) and respondents aged 65+ (52%).

Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations

Nov 25, 2014

Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations? 

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2013

Jun 2014

Oct 2014

Total a lot/some

38%

15%

79%

7%

24%

41%

35%

40%

Total little/no trust

57%

82%

19%

93%

75%

53%

59%

53%

A lot of trust

15%

2%

38%

-

4%

20%

17%

17%

Some trust

23%

13%

41%

7%

20%

21%

18%

23%

A little trust

20%

22%

16%

18%

28%

18%

16%

18%

No trust

37%

60%

3%

75%

47%

35%

43%

35%

Don’t know

6%

4%

2%

1%

2%

7%

5%

6%

15% of people have “a lot of trust” in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations.

37% have no trust.

Labor (60%) and Greens (75%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. Liberal/National voters were far less likely (3%) to have no trust. 38% of Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”.

Since this question was asked in October, those saying they have a lot or some trust has decreased by 2% and those saying they have little/no trust increased by 4%.

Right or wrong approach to climate change

Nov 25, 2014

Q. Do you think Australia is taking the right or the wrong approach to handling the issue of climate change?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Taking the right approach

28%

13%

56%

4%

25%

Taking the wrong approach

42%

64%

14%

91%

36%

Don’t know

30%

23%

30%

6%

39%

28% think that Australia is taking the right approach to handling the issue of climate change and 42% think Australia is taking the wrong approach – 30% don’t know.

Those most likely to think Australia is taking the wrong approach were Labor voters (64%), Greens voters (91%), aged under 35 (48%) and university educated (46%).

Free trade agreement with China

Nov 25, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Australia signing a Free Trade Agreement with China? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

18 Nov

Total approve

51%

44%

69%

37%

46%

44%

Total disapprove

20%

27%

12%

37%

29%

18%

Strongly approve

11%

8%

16%

11%

9%

10%

Approve

40%

36%

53%

26%

37%

34%

Disapprove

14%

19%

9%

26%

18%

12%

Strongly disapprove

6%

8%

3%

11%

11%

6%

Don’t know

29%

29%

19%

26%

26%

39%

51% approve of Australia signing a Free Trade Agreement with China and 20% disapprove. 29% could not give an opinion. This is an improvement in approval (up 7%) since the official announcement of the agreement was made last week.

Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (69%), aged 55+ (61%) and men (61%).

Those most likely to disapprove were Greens (37%) and other voters (29%).

Trust in media

Nov 25, 2014

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?

 

Total a lot/ some
trust

 

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

Don’t use

 

Total a lot/ some

Mar
10

Total a lot/ some

Jul
11

Total a lot/ some Dec 11

Total a lot/ some

Jun
12

Total a lot/ some

Jan
13

ABC TV news and current affairs

69%

24%

45%

11%

9%

3%

8%

70%

71%

72%

74%

73%

SBS TV news and current affairs

66%

22%

44%

13%

6%

4%

11%

ABC radio news and current affairs

62%

19%

43%

13%

8%

4%

12%

62%

67%

67%

69%

70%

News and opinion in local news
papers

53%

5%

48%

26%

8%

4%

10%

-

54%

52%

56%

55%

News and opinion in daily news
papers

50%

5%

45%

28%

10%

3%

9%

62%

53%

46%

52%

48%

ABC radio talkback pro-
grams

48%

8%

40%

22%

11%

5%

15%

45%

47%

47%

50%

49%

Comm-
ercial TV news and current affairs

48%

5%

43%

31%

13%

4%

5%

64%

48%

43%

46%

44%

Comm-
ercial radio news and current affairs

45%

4%

41%

29%

12%

4%

10%

54%

46%

45%

45%

46%

News and opinion websites

42%

3%

39%

30%

12%

4%

12%

49%

41%

38%

40%

40%

Comm-
ercial radio talkback pro-
grams

33%

3%

30%

28%

22%

4%

14%

38%

33%

33%

33%

32%

Internet blogs

22%

1%

21%

30%

25%

5%

17%

20%

20%

17%

20%

23%

Overall, trust in media has changed little since this question was asked last year.

The most trusted media by a wide margin were ABC TV news and current affairs (69% a lot/some trust), SBS TV news and current affairs (66%) and ABC radio news and current affairs (62%).

The least trusted were internet blogs (22%) and commercial radio talkback programs (33%).

Approval of funding cuts to ABC

Nov 25, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the 5% annual funding cut to the ABC? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total approve

25%

13%

45%

7%

23%

Total disapprove

52%

67%

36%

87%

54%

Strongly approve

8%

2%

18%

-

10%

Approve

17%

11%

27%

7%

13%

Disapprove

27%

27%

29%

27%

24%

Strongly disapprove

25%

40%

7%

60%

30%

Don’t know

23%

20%

19%

6%

23%

25% approve the cuts to the ABC and 52% disapprove – 23% don’t know.

Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (87%), Labor voters (67%) and respondents aged 45-64 (60%).

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