Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 16, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,792 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 18/11/14

2 weeks ago

2/12/14

Last week

9/12/14

This week

16/12/14

Liberal

 

37%

37%

35%

35%

National

3%

3%

4%

4%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

40%

39%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

40%

39%

38%

Greens

8.6%

10%

9%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

3%

3%

2%

2%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

8%

10%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 18/11/14

2 weeks ago

2/12/14

Last week

9/12/14

This week

16/12/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

46.5%

52%

53%

53%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Climate change

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

Jun 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Sep 14

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

57%

70%

42%

87%

49%

53%

45%

50%

48%

52%

56%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

29%

21%

44%

3%

38%

34%

36%

39%

39%

36%

30%

Don’t know

14%

9%

14%

9%

13%

13%

19%

12%

13%

12%

14%

57% (up 1% since June) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 29% (down 1%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is the highest level of belief in climate change recorded in Essential polls – and the lowest level of disbelief.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 67%/20% and those aged 55+ split 41%/48%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 68%/22%.

Concern about climate change

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Over the last 2 years, have you become more concerned or less concerned about the environmental effects of global warming or do you feel about the same as you did 2 years ago?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Sep 14

Total more concerned

51%

62%

38%

78%

47%

52%

Total less concerned

9%

5%

16%

3%

9%

9%

Much more concerned

21%

31%

11%

40%

16%

22%

A little more concerned

30%

31%

27%

38%

31%

30%

About the same

35%

29%

43%

17%

43%

35%

A little less concerned

6%

4%

10%

3%

6%

6%

Much less concerned

3%

1%

6%

-

3%

3%

Don’t know

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

4%

51% say they have become more concerned about the environmental effects of global warming over the last two years and 9% have become less concerned – 35% feel about the same.

These results are very similar to those when this question was asked in September.

Those most likely to have become more concerned were Labor voters (62%), Greens voters (78%) and people with university degrees (62%).

Countries doing enough on climate change

Dec 16, 2014

Q. As far as you know, do you think the following countries are doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change? 

 

Doing enough

Not doing enough

Doing too much

Don’t know

Australia

26%

51%

6%

16%

USA

17%

53%

5%

25%

China

9%

63%

3%

25%

51% of respondents think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change – while 53% think the USA is not doing enough and 63% think China is not doing enough. Only 26% think that Australia is doing enough.

Those most likely to think Australia is not doing enough were aged 18-34 (57%), Greens voters (91%), Labor voters (65%) and people with university education (59%).

Next election

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election due in 2016? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Labor Party

46%

84%

16%

66%

40%

Liberal/National Party

27%

2%

64%

7%

16%

Can’t say

27%

14%

20%

27%

44%

46% think the Labor Party is most likely to win the next election and 27% think the Liberal/National Party is most likely to win. 27% could not give an opinion.

84% of Labor voters think the Labor Party is most likely to win and 64% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal/National Party will win.

Tony Abbott leader at next election

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott is likely or unlikely to still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the next election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Likely

29%

16%

50%

19%

29%

Unlikely

51%

72%

29%

68%

60%

Don’t know

20%

12%

21%

13%

11%

51% think that Tony Abbott is unlikely to still be leader of the Liberal Party at the next election and 29% think it is likely.

72% of Labor voters and 68% of Greens voters think it is unlikely and 50% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely he will still be leader.

Bill Shorten leader at next election

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Do you think Bill Shorten is likely or unlikely to still be the leader of the Labor Party at the next election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Likely

47%

59%

45%

47%

44%

Unlikely

20%

12%

28%

13%

29%

Don’t know

33%

29%

27%

40%

27%

47% think that Bill Shorten is likely to still be leader of the Labor Party at the next election and 20% think it is unlikely.

All voter groups were more likely to think he would still be leader.

Great Barrier Reef

Dec 16, 2014

Q. The UNESCO World Heritage Committee has indicated it might declare the Great Barrier Reef “in danger” due to the impact of climate change, crown of thorns starfish and port development. The Australian Government says the Reef is not in danger and they are doing enough to preserve it. Who do you agree with more?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

UNESCO World Heritage Committee

55%

69%

34%

86%

63%

Australian Government

20%

12%

38%

1%

17%

Don’t know

25%

19%

29%

13%

20%

55% agree more with the UNESCO World Heritage Committee that the Great Barrier Reef is in danger and 20% agree more that the Government is doing enough to preserve it.

Labor voters (69%) and Greens voters (86%) are much more likely to agree with the World Heritage Committee while Liberal/National voters are split 34% UNESCO and 38% Government.

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