Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 30, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,796 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 2/9/14

2 weeks ago

16/9/14

Last week

23/9/14

This week

30/9/14

Liberal

 

36%

35%

36%

37%

National

4%

3%

3%

2%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

39%

39%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

38%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

9%

11%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

9%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 2/9/14

2 weeks ago

16/9/14

Last week

23/9/14

This week

30/9/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

46.5%

52%

53%

53%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Climate change

Sep 30, 2014

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

Jun 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Jan 14

Apr 14

Jun 14

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

56%

72%

32%

92%

55%

53%

45%

50%

48%

52%

51%

56%

53%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

30%

19%

51%

4%

35%

34%

36%

39%

39%

36%

39%

34%

35%

Don’t know

14%

9%

16%

4%

10%

13%

19%

12%

13%

12%

11%

10%

12%

56% (up 3% since June) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 30% (down 5%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is the equal highest recorded belief in climate change – and the lowest level of disbelief.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 70%/16% and those aged 55+ split 50%/41%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 69%/20%.

Concern about climate change

Sep 30, 2014

Q. Over the last 2 years, have you become more concerned or less concerned about the environmental effects of global warming or do you feel about the same as you did 2 years ago?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total more concerned

52%

61%

34%

89%

52%

Total less concerned

9%

10%

14%

2%

6%

Much more concerned

22%

27%

11%

65%

18%

A little more concerned

30%

34%

23%

24%

34%

About the same

35%

28%

49%

7%

40%

A little less concerned

6%

8%

8%

2%

1%

Much less concerned

3%

2%

6%

-

5%

Don’t know

4%

2%

3%

2%

3%

52% say they have become more concerned about the environmental effects of global warming over the last two years and 9% have become less concerned – 35% feel about the same.

Those most likely to have become more concerned were Labor voters (61%), Greens voters (89%), aged 18-34 (59%) and people with university degrees (63%).

Action on climate change

Sep 30, 2014

Q. Which of the following actions on climate change would you most support?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Incentives for renewable energy

50%

52%

45%

61%

59%

An emissions trading scheme

12%

20%

5%

24%

6%

The Government’s direct action policy

10%

10%

12%

7%

14%

No action required

11%

4%

21%

-

13%

Don’t know

17%

14%

17%

8%

8%

In taking action on climate change, 50% most support incentives for renewable energy, 12% most support an emissions trading scheme and 10% most support the Government‘s direct action policy – while 11% say no action is required.

All groups are most likely to support incentives for renewable energy. Those more likely to support an emissions trading scheme were Greens voters (24%) and Labor voters (20%).

Concern about funding cuts to ABC

Sep 30, 2014

Q. How concerned are you that funding cuts may result in the ABC cutting back or dropping some of its current affairs programs? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total concerned

53%

64%

34%

85%

57%

Total not concerned

39%

29%

57%

12%

39%

Very concerned

25%

32%

10%

59%

31%

Somewhat concerned

28%

32%

24%

26%

26%

Not very concerned

21%

18%

26%

8%

28%

Not at all concerned

18%

11%

31%

4%

11%

Don’t know

9%

7%

9%

4%

4%

53% were concerned that funding cuts may result in the ABC cutting back or dropping some of its current affairs programs and 39% were not concerned.

Those most likely to be concerned were Greens voters (85%), Labor voters (64%) and university educated (62%).

National security

Sep 30, 2014

Q. When it comes to issues of national security, do you think there should be more restrictions on rights and freedom for some people so there can be more security for others or do you think our current laws strike the right balance between freedom and security?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Should be more restrictions

50%

48%

66%

14%

50%

Current laws strike the right balance

34%

38%

21%

72%

42%

Don’t know

16%

14%

13%

13%

8%

50% think there should be more restrictions on rights and freedom for some people so there can be more security for others and 34% are more likely to think the current laws strike the right balance between freedom and security.

Those most in favour of more restrictions on rights and freedoms were Liberal/National voters (66%), aged 55+ (68%) and people who hadn’t completed secondary education (66%).

Those most likely to think current laws strike the right balance were Greens voters (72%), men (41%), aged 18-34 (43%) and university educated (43%).

Detention without charge

Sep 30, 2014

Q. Do you agree or disagree with restrictions such as detention of people without charging them in relation to allegations of terrorism?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total agree

59%

58%

78%

19%

58%

Total disagree

24%

26%

10%

64%

30%

Strongly agree

28%

23%

43%

7%

28%

Agree

31%

35%

35%

12%

30%

Disagree

14%

18%

7%

20%

19%

Strongly disagree

10%

8%

3%

44%

11%

Don’t know

17%

16%

12%

16%

12%

59% agree with restrictions such as detention of people without charging them in relation to allegations of terrorism and 24% disagree.

Those most likely to agree were Liberal/National voters (78%), aged 55+ (70%) and people who hadn’t completed secondary education (67%).

Those most likely to disagree were Greens voters (64%) and university educated (32%).

Concern about surveillance of social media

Sep 30, 2014

Q. How concerned are you about privacy and surveillance of social media? 

 

Total

 

Men

Women

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

Total concerned

71%

69%

73%

76%

71%

65%

Total not concerned

25%

27%

24%

20%

26%

35%

Very concerned

28%

27%

29%

31%

27%

26%

Somewhat concerned

43%

42%

44%

45%

43%

39%

Not very concerned

19%

19%

19%

16%

18%

28%

Not at all concerned

6%

8%

5%

4%

8%

7%

Don’t know

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

-

(based on the  74% of respondents who use social media)

71% of social media users were concerned about privacy and surveillance of social media.
Those most likely to be concerned were aged under 35 (76%) and university educated (77%).

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