Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 18, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,768 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 21/10/14

2 weeks ago

4/11/14

Last week

11/11/14

This week

18/11/14

Liberal

 

37%

37%

36%

37%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

38%

38%

38%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

3%

4%

4%

3%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

8%

9%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 21/10/14

2 weeks ago

4/11/14

Last week

11/11/14

This week

18/11/14

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

53%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Free trade agreement with China

Nov 18, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Australia signing a Free Trade Agreement with China? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total approve

44%

44%

58%

31%

34%

Total disapprove

18%

21%

9%

27%

35%

Strongly approve

10%

10%

16%

2%

5%

Approve

34%

34%

42%

29%

29%

Disapprove

12%

11%

7%

22%

24%

Strongly disapprove

6%

10%

2%

5%

11%

Don’t know

39%

36%

34%

42%

31%

44% approve of Australia signing a Free Trade Agreement with China and 18% disapprove. 39% could not give an opinion.

Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (58%), aged 55+ (58%) and men (54%).

Those most likely to disapprove were Greens (27%) and other voters (35%).

Country that benefits most from free trade agreement

Nov 18, 2014

Q. Which country do you think will benefit most from a Free Trade Agreement with China?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Australia

12%

13%

17%

4%

7%

China

35%

39%

22%

53%

54%

Both equally

24%

22%

34%

16%

16%

Neither

2%

2%

1%

1%

4%

Don’t know

28%

23%

26%

26%

20%

35% think that China would benefit most from a Fee Trade Agreement, 24% think both countries would benefit equally and 12% think Australia would benefit most.

Those most likely to think China would benefit most were Greens (53%) and other voters (54%) and aged 55% (43%),

Groups that benefit from free trade agreement

Nov 18, 2014

Q. How much do you think the following would benefit from a Free Trade Agreement with China? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lot/some benefit

 

Total a lot/
some benefit

 

A lot of benefit

Some benefit

Little benefit

No benefit

Don’t know

Vote ALP

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Green

Vote Other

Australian
Government

52%

17%

35%

13%

5%

30%

51%

65%

49%

47%

Mining companies

48%

22%

26%

14%

7%

31%

49%

57%

44%

43%

Australian businesses overall

44%

11%

33%

20%

5%

31%

44%

58%

39%

32%

Tourism operators

41%

12%

29%

17%

10%

32%

44%

53%

37%

32%

Farmers

37%

12%

25%

18%

15%

30%

35%

50%

29%

28%

The Australian economy in general

37%

9%

28%

23%

9%

31%

34%

53%

29%

22%

Manufactur-ing firms

34%

10%

24%

18%

18%

31%

37%

43%

22%

26%

Working people

25%

6%

19%

25%

22%

29%

22%

39%

15%

13%

Respondents thought those most likely to benefit from a Free Trade Agreement with China were the Australian Government (52%), mining companies (48%) and Australian business overall (44%).

Only 25% thought that there would be a lot or some benefit for working people. 47% though there would be little or no benefit for working people.

Support for free trade measures

Nov 18, 2014

Q. Would you support or oppose the following measures in a Free Trade Agreement with China? 

 

Total support

Total oppose

 

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Don’t know

Fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia

20%

57%

6%

14%

25%

32%

24%

Greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses

61%

12%

20%

41%

8%

4%

26%

Reduced tariffs on imported manufactured goods from China

43%

28%

11%

32%

16%

12%

28%

Fewer restrictions on Chinese investment in Australia

23%

52%

7%

16%

22%

30%

26%

A majority (61%) support a free trade agreement that gives greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses and respondents were also more likely to support reduced tariffs on imported manufactured goods from China (43%).

A majority oppose fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia (57%) and fewer restrictions on Chinese investment in Australia (52%).

There were few significant differences between Labor and Liberal/National voters – except that 51% of Liberal/National voters supported reduced tariffs on imported manufactured goods from China.

Opinion of G20

Nov 18, 2014

Q. Australia is hosting the G20 summit of world leaders in Brisbane on the weekend of 15th and 16th November. Which of the following is closest to your view? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

The G20 summit will deliver real outcomes for Australia and the global economy

16%

16%

23%

8%

9%

The G20 is an expensive talk fest, it’s unlikely to change anything

62%

66%

54%

75%

79%

Don’t know

21%

18%

23%

17%

11%

62% were more likely to agree that the G20 is an expensive talk fest, it’s unlikely to change anything.

Those most likely to favour this statement were aged 55+ (72%) and live in Queensland (72%).

Number of refugees

Nov 18, 2014

Q. How many refugees do you think Australia takes in every year?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

About 5,000

10%

12%

7%

18%

9%

About 10,000

12%

14%

13%

15%

6%

About 15,000

15%

15%

15%

16%

20%

About 25,000

19%

19%

20%

17%

24%

About 50,000

14%

13%

16%

6%

19%

Don’t know

31%

28%

29%

28%

22%

10% think we take in about 5,000 refugees every year, 27% think we take in 10,000 or 15,000 and 33% think we take in 25,000 or more. The official figure is around 13,000.

There were not large differences in the responses across voter groups although Greens voters were more likely to give a lower estimate (33% said 5,000 or 10,000 – compared to 22% of the total) and other party voters were more likely to give a higher estimate (43% said 25,000 or 50,000).

Refugee intake compared to other countries

Nov 18, 2014

Q. As far as you know which of the following statements is true?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Australia takes in fewer refugees than comparable nations

32%

40%

22%

60%

31%

Australia takes in about the same number of refugees as comparable nations

20%

18%

26%

12%

21%

Australia takes in more refugees than comparable nations

25%

25%

28%

8%

34%

Don’t know

23%

17%

24%

20%

14%

32% think that Australia takes in fewer refugees than comparable nations and 45% think we take in about the same number or more. 23% could not give an answer.

60% of Greens voters and 40% of Labor voters think we take in fewer – as did 45% of those with university education.

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