Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 29, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,982 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 1/7/14

2 weeks ago

15/7/14

Last week

22/7/14

This week

29/7/14

Liberal

 

37%

35%

36%

38%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

40%

38%

39%

41%

Labor

33.4%

38%

40%

39%

38%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

6%

6%

6%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 1/7/14

2 weeks ago

15/7/14

Last week

22/7/14

This week

29/7/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

47%

48%

49%

Labor

46.5%

52%

53%

52%

51%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Putin at G20

Jul 29, 2014

Q. Based on Russia’s response to the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine, do you think the Russian President, Vladimir Putin should be allowed to attend the G20 meeting in Brisbane in November? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Should be allowed to attend

29%

32%

26%

37%

27%

Should not be allowed to attend

49%

47%

54%

44%

51%

Don’t know

23%

21%

20%

19%

22%

About half (49%) of respondents think that based on Russia’s response to the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 meeting in Brisbane in November and 29% think he should be allowed to attend.

Although Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to think he should not be allowed to attend (54%), there were not major differences by voting intention.

58% of those aged 55+ think he should not be allowed to attend while those aged under 35 were more evenly divided (34% allow/37% not allow).

Actions against Russia

Jul 29, 2014

Q. If Russia is found to be involved in the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine, what actions should Australia take?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Trade sanctions against Russia

62%

63%

68%

59%

53%

Withdraw from diplomatic relations with Russia

46%

47%

47%

54%

42%

Give support to the Ukraine Government against the rebels

28%

32%

26%

26%

25%

Take no action

8%

11%

6%

5%

10%

62% support trade sanctions against Russia and 46% support withdrawing from diplomatic relations with Russia if Russia is found to be involved in the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

Only 8% support taking no action.

There were broadly similar levels of support across voter groups.

Approval of Tony Abbott’s handling of Malaysia Airlines disaster

Jul 29, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott’s handling of Australia’s response to the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total approve

67%

55%

89%

58%

62%

Total disapprove

13%

22%

3%

17%

14%

Strongly approve

23%

9%

46%

7%

18%

Approve

44%

46%

43%

51%

44%

Disapprove

10%

15%

3%

15%

10%

Strongly disapprove

3%

7%

*

2%

4%

Don’t know

20%

22%

8%

26%

25%

67% approve of Tony Abbott’s handling of Australia’s response to the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane and 13% disapprove.

Although approval by Liberal/National voters is very high (89%) a majority of each voter group also approve.

81% of those aged 55+ approve while 35% of those aged under 35 have no opinion.

Approval of handling of Malaysia Airlines disaster

Jul 29, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following have handled the Malaysian Airlines disaster?

 

Total approve

Total disapprove

 

Strongly approve

Approve

Disapprove

Strongly disapprove

Don’t know

Malaysian Airlines

50%

25%

6%

44%

18%

7%

25%

The Russian Government

8%

77%

2%

6%

32%

45%

16%

The Australian Government

71%

13%

22%

49%

11%

2%

16%

The United Nations

56%

19%

9%

47%

15%

4%

24%

71% approve of the Australian Government’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster and 77% disapprove of the Russian Government’s handling of the issue.

A majority also approve of the United Nations handling (56%) and Malaysia Airlines handling (50%).

Impact of repeal of carbon tax

Jul 29, 2014

Q. As a result of the repeal of the carbon tax, do you expect your electricity bill to change in any of the following ways? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total decrease

33%

27%

46%

21%

24%

Total increase

16%

20%

10%

23%

13%

Decrease a lot

5%

6%

5%

-

6%

Decrease a little

28%

21%

41%

21%

18%

Stay much the same

43%

46%

39%

48%

52%

Increase a little

10%

11%

8%

20%

6%

Increase a lot

6%

9%

2%

3%

7%

Don’t know

9%

7%

5%

8%

10%

43% expect their electricity bill to stay much the same after the repeal of the carbon tax, 33% expect it to decrease (5% a lot, 28% a little) and 16% expect it to increase.

Those most likely to think it will decrease were Liberal/National voters (46%), aged 55+ (42%) and incomes over $1,600pw (38%).

Actions on climate change

Jul 29, 2014

Q. Now that the carbon tax has been repealed, which of the following actions on climate change would you most support? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Incentives for renewable energy

43%

43%

38%

54%

52%

An emissions trading scheme

19%

30%

13%

31%

8%

The Government’s direct action policy

5%

4%

7%

1%

6%

No action required

14%

7%

25%

1%

13%

Don’t know

19%

18%

18%

13%

21%

The most favoured action on climate change was incentives for renewable energy (43%). Only 5% preferred the Government’s direct action policy while 19% favoured an emissions trading scheme.

The emissions trading scheme received higher support from Greens voters (31%) and Labor voters (30%).

25% of Liberal/National voters and 19% of those aged 45+ think no action is required.

Childcare proposals

Jul 29, 2014

Q. Thinking about Government assistance for childcare, do you support or oppose the following proposals? 

 

Total support

Total oppose

 

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Don’t know

Investment to create more childcare places

72%

13%

17%

55%

9%

4%

16%

Means testing of the childcare rebate

71%

14%

31%

40%

10%

4%

15%

Greater government subsidies to reduce the cost of childcare

57%

25%

16%

41%

17%

8%

18%

Childcare rebate extended to include nannies

46%

35%

12%

34%

22%

13%

19%

A substantial majority supported investment to create more childcare places (72%) and means testing of the childcare rebate (71%). A majority supported Greater government subsidies to reduce the cost of childcare (57%) while they were somewhat more divided over childcare rebate extended to include nannies (46% support/35% oppose).

For those aged 25-44, support was a little higher for greater Government subsidies (61%), investment to create more places (76%) and extending the rebate to nannies (51%) but lower for means testing the rebate (65%).

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