Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 28, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,772 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 30/9/14

2 weeks ago

14/10/14

Last week

21/10/14

This week

28/10/14

Liberal

 

37%

38%

37%

36%

National

2%

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

41%

40%

39%

Labor

33.4%

39%

39%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

3%

3%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 30/9/14

2 weeks ago

14/10/14

Last week

21/10/14

This week

28/10/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

53%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Importance of international relationships

Oct 28, 2014

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

 

Very 

Quite 

Not very 

Don’t know

 

Very 

Mar 11

Very 

Nov 13

Very 

Jun 14

Change

United States

53%

37%

5%

4%

60%

59%

57%

-4

United Kingdom

48%

41%

7%

4%

56%

48%

48%

-

China

44%

45%

6%

6%

48%

54%

46%

-2

Indonesia

32%

46%

15%

7%

31%

40%

35%

-3

Japan

31%

51%

11%

7%

39%

35%

32%

-1

Canada

26%

47%

20%

7%

na

na

28%

-2

India

22%

46%

24%

8%

26%

26%

23%

-1

Germany

22%

43%

27%

8%

23%

20%

21%

+1

Saudi Arabia

17%

38%

35%

10%

na

na

na

na

Russia

16%

39%

37%

8%

na

na

na

na

More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the United States (53%). Relations with Russia (16%) and Saudi Arabia (17%) were thought to be the least important.

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 67% of Liberal/National voters, 50% of Labor voters and 41% of Greens voters.

Since this question was last asked in June, there has been a 4% decrease in the rating of the importance of relations with the United States.

Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations

Oct 28, 2014

Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations? 

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2013

Jun 2014

Total a lot/some

40%

16%

82%

19%

26%

41%

35%

Total little/no trust

53%

81%

15%

80%

71%

53%

59%

A lot of trust

17%

1%

44%

2%

8%

20%

17%

Some trust

23%

15%

38%

17%

18%

21%

18%

A little trust

18%

24%

13%

10%

20%

18%

16%

No trust

35%

57%

2%

70%

51%

35%

43%

Don’t know

6%

3%

3%

1%

2%

7%

5%

17% of people have “a lot of trust” in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations.

35% have no trust.

Labor (57%) and Greens (70%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. Liberal/National voters were far less likely (2%) to have no trust. 44% of Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”.

Since this question was asked in June, those saying they have a lot or some trust has increased by 5% and those saying they have no trust decreased by 6% – a similar position to the poll in November last year.

Tony Abbott representing Australia

Oct 28, 2014

Q. When you think of Tony Abbott representing Australia at international conferences and meetings, how confident are you that he will do a good job in representing Australia to the international community? 

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Jun 2014

Total very/somewhat confident

49%

23%

91%

16%

34%

45%

Very confident

17%

2%

42%

2%

8%

18%

Somewhat confident

32%

21%

49%

14%

26%

27%

Not at all confident

47%

74%

9%

82%

63%

50%

Don’t know

4%

3%

1%

2%

3%

5%

49% (up 4% since June) say they are very or somewhat confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job in representing Australia to the international community and 47% (down 3%) say they are not at all confident.

Relations with Indonesia

Oct 28, 2014

Q. How would you rate the performance of Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government in handling relations with Indonesia?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2013

May 2014

Total good

32%

8%

71%

7%

17%

29%

25%

Total poor

39%

63%

8%

70%

48%

42%

43%

Very good

12%

1%

31%

*

3%

11%

8%

Good

20%

7%

40%

7%

14%

18%

17%

Neither good nor poor

22%

23%

18%

14%

29%

21%

19%

Poor

18%

28%

6%

26%

19%

16%

19%

Very poor

21%

35%

2%

44%

29%

26%

24%

Don’t know

8%

6%

4%

9%

6%

8%

13%

32% of respondents would rate Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government handling of relations with Indonesia as good. 39% would rate them as poor. This represents an improvement since May of 11 points from net -18 to net -7.

Importance of G20

Oct 28, 2014

Q. In November, Australia will host the G20, an annual meeting of the leaders of the 20 major economies of the world to discuss economic issues.  How important do you think the G20 meeting is to Australia’s economy?

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Jun 2014

Total important

73%

77%

79%

82%

60%

72%

 
Total not important

17%

14%

16%

14%

33%

20%

 
Very important

29%

27%

36%

31%

22%

29%

 
Somewhat important

44%

50%

43%

51%

38%

43%

 
Not very important

12%

9%

14%

9%

20%

14%

 
Not at all important

5%

5%

2%

5%

13%

6%

 
Don’t know

10%

10%

5%

4%

7%

9%

 

73% think the G20 meeting is very or somewhat important to Australia’s economy and 17% think it is not very or not at all important. These figures have changed little since this question was asked in June.

A substantial majority of all voters groups think it is very/somewhat important. There were no major demographic differences.

Whitlam Government

Oct 28, 2014

Q. Below is a list of some of the achievements of Gough Whitlam’s Government from 1972-75. Which of them do you think were the three most important achievements?

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

Established Medibank – the national health insurance system

68%

73%

66%

75%

67%

61%

65%

84%

Abolished university fees

39%

47%

32%

57%

32%

42%

39%

35%

Ended conscription

28%

28%

30%

17%

41%

20%

29%

38%

Protected the Great Barrier Reef

25%

21%

28%

22%

30%

24%

27%

22%

Established diplomatic relations with China

25%

26%

31%

13%

20%

23%

22%

31%

Aboriginal land rights

22%

26%

14%

30%

23%

23%

19%

26%

Passed the Racial Discrimination Act

22%

25%

16%

39%

18%

27%

25%

11%

Direct Commonwealth funding to non-Government schools

14%

13%

17%

3%

10%

14%

16%

10%

Introduced the policy of multiculturalism

13%

11%

11%

25%

9%

20%

12%

5%

Lowered voting age to 18

11%

6%

15%

9%

20%

7%

13%

13%

Cut tariffs on imports

10%

6%

14%

5%

5%

10%

10%

10%

Independence for PNG

5%

2%

6%

*

9%

8%

4%

4%

The most important achievements of the Whitlam Government were thought to be establishing Medibank (68%), abolishing university fees (39%) and ending conscription (28%).

Among those aged 55+ (who were more likely to recall the Whitlam Government) the most important achievements were establishing Medibank (84%), ending conscription (38%), abolishing university fees (35%) and establishing diplomatic relations with China (31%).

Republic

Oct 28, 2014

Q.  Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Jan 2010

March 2011

Oct 2011

Jun 2012

Apr 2014

 

Shift since April 2014

In favour

31%

42%

23%

42%

29%

41%

39%

41%

39%

33%

-2

Against

31%

20%

48%

15%

34%

32%

34%

33%

35%

42%

-11

No opinion

38%

38%

29%

43%

37%

27%

27%

26%

27%

25%

+13

31% of respondents were in favour of Australian becoming a republic and 31% were against. 38% could not give an opinion – the highest response in the last 4 years.

Greens (42%) and Labor (42%) voters were more likely to be in favour of a republic. Lib/Nat voters (23%) were less likely.

Males (40%) were far more likely than females (22%) to be in favour of a republic.

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