Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
4/10/16 |
2 weeks ago
27/9/16 |
4 weeks ago
13/9/16 |
Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 34% | 36% | 36% | 35% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 38% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 36% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |||
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 48% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 52% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 49.6% |
NB. Sample = 1,769. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | |||
| Total approve | 38% | 21% | 74% | 28% | 25% | 56% | 45% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 35% | ||
| Total disapprove | 41% | 64% | 15% | 57% | 58% | 23% | 35% | 40% | 48% | 43% | 43% | ||
| Strongly approve | 5% | 3% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 4% | ||
| Approve | 33% | 18% | 64% | 23% | 20% | 43% | 39% | 32% | 29% | 32% | 31% | ||
| Disapprove | 25% | 35% | 11% | 38% | 38% | 16% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 26% | 27% | ||
| Strongly disapprove | 16% | 29% | 4% | 19% | 20% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 16% | ||
| Don’t know | 20% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 19% | 22% |
38% (up 3% from 4 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 41% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from -8 to -3.
74% (up 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 15% (down 2%) disapproving. 21% (up 5%) of Labor voters and 28% (up 5%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.
By gender, men were 44% approve/43% disapprove and women 33% approve/40% disapprove.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Nov 2013 | Dec 2014 | Dec 2015 | Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | |||
| Total approve | 37% | 65% | 25% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 35% | 27% | 39% | 36% | ||
| Total disapprove | 40% | 18% | 61% | 35% | 65% | 27% | 39% | 47% | 41% | 41% | ||
| Strongly approve | 5% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 6% | ||
| Approve | 32% | 52% | 23% | 36% | 21% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 28% | 30% | ||
| Disapprove | 23% | 15% | 28% | 30% | 32% | 17% | 23% | 26% | 21% | 24% | ||
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 3% | 33% | 5% | 33% | 10% | 16% | 21% | 20% | 17% | ||
| Don’t know | 22% | 18% | 14% | 22% | 13% | 43% | 26% | 25% | 20% | 22% |
37% (up 1% in last 4 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 40% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -5 to -3.
65% (up 3%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 18% (down 1%) disapprove.
42% of men and 32% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 43% of men and 37% of women disapprove.
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Sep 2015 | Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | |||
| Malcolm Turnbull | 41% | 15% | 79% | 27% | 41% | 53% | 54% | 48% | 40% | 41% | ||
| Bill Shorten | 28% | 59% | 7% | 35% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 19% | 30% | 26% | ||
| Don’t know | 31% | 26% | 14% | 38% | 44% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 31% | 33% |
41% (no change in last 4 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 28% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.
46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 32% prefer Bill Shorten.
36% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 25% prefer Bill Shorten.
Q. Overall, has multiculturalism (that is, the acceptance of people from different countries, cultures and religions) made a positive or negative contribution to Australian society?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Feb 2011 | Sep 2014 | Mar 2015 | |||
| Total positive | 61% | 66% | 66% | 74% | 48% | 57% | 57% | 57% | ||
| Total negative | 23% | 21% | 22% | 15% | 38% | 29% | 30% | 29% | ||
| Very positive | 17% | 21% | 13% | 35% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 18% | ||
| Positive | 44% | 45% | 53% | 39% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 39% | ||
| Negative | 15% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 18% | ||
| Very negative | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 18% | 11% | 11% | 11% | ||
| Made no difference | 7% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% | ||
| Don’t know | 9% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
61% believe that multiculturalism has made a positive contribution to Australian society and 23% believe the contribution has been negative. This is the most positive view of multiculturalism since this question was asked in 2011.
Older respondents tend to have a somewhat more negative view – those aged 65+ were split 55% positive/34% negative while those aged under 35 were 67% positive and 16% negative.
Q. When a family applies to migrate to Australia, should it be possible for them to be rejected purely on the basis of their religion?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Feb 2011 | Sep 2014 | |||
| Should be rejected on basis of religion | 24% | 19% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 21% | ||
| Should not be rejected on basis of religion | 56% | 64% | 51% | 73% | 45% | 65% | 63% | ||
| Don’t know | 20% | 17% | 19% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
56% believed that when a family applies to migrate to Australia, they should not be rejected purely on the basis of their religion and 24% think it should be possible to reject purely based on religion. This represents a drop in opposition to rejecting migrants purely on the basis of religion.
Liberal voters were a little more supportive of being able to reject based on religion (30%) and Greens voters were strongly opposed (73%). 64% of those aged under 35 were opposed.
Q. Are you concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | 1-2% | 3-5% | 6-10% | Over 10% | Don’t know | Feb 2011 | |||
| Total concerned | 53% | 49% | 61% | 32% | 69% | 38% | 59% | 61% | 75% | 43% | 57% | ||
| Total not concerned | 42% | 47% | 36% | 67% | 30% | 60% | 40% | 39% | 21% | 36% | 38% | ||
| Very Concerned | 25% | 24% | 27% | 13% | 39% | 13% | 26% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 28% | ||
| Somewhat concerned | 28% | 25% | 34% | 19% | 30% | 25% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 21% | 29% | ||
| Not very concerned | 22% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 15% | 28% | 22% | 24% | 11% | 20% | 21% | ||
| Not at all concerned | 20% | 24% | 13% | 43% | 15% | 32% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 16% | 17% | ||
| Don’t know/Refused | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | – | – | 3% | 22% | 5% |
53% were very or somewhat concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia while 42% were not very or not at all concerned. Concern is higher among Liberal/National (61%) and other party voters (69%) and lower among Greens voters (32%). 60% of people aged 55+ say they are concerned.
However, level of concern has dropped a little since this question was asked in 2011.
Level of concern is strongly related to perceptions of the number of Muslim people in Australia.
Q. What percentage of Australian residents do you think are Muslim?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Feb 2011 | |||
| 1% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 6% | ||
| 2% | 19% | 23% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 11% | ||
| 3-5% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 31% | 23% | 26% | ||
| 6-10% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 20% | ||
| More than 10% | 15% | 18% | 12% | 9% | 17% | 19% | ||
| Don’t know | 19% | 14% | 205 | 14% | 13% | 18% |
28% think that Muslims make up 1-2% of Australia’s population, 24% think they make up 3-5% and 27% think it is over 5%. The actual figure is 2.2% – meaning 51% have over-estimated the number of Muslims in Australia.
Those who think it is 1-2% were more likely to be men (33%) and aged 55+ (37%).