Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Mar 2013 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | ||
| Sample | 946 | 931 | 1,105 | 1,115 | 1,035 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||
| Liberal | 47.1% | 37% | 40% | 37% | 34% | 34% | |
| National | 6.1% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | |
| Labor | 33.1% | 35% | 34% | 39% | 39% | 36% | |
| Greens | 8.4% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 11% | |
| Other/Independent | 5.3% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 13% | |
| 2PP | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 57.3% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 49% | |
| Labor | 42.7% | 49% | 48% | 51% | 53% | 51% |
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
13/12/16 |
2 weeks ago
6/12/16 |
4 weeks ago
22/11/16 |
Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 34% | 34% | 35% | 36% | |||
| National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 37% | 37% | 38% | 38% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 47% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 53% | 53% | 52% | 52% | 49.6% |
NB. Sample = 1,779. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good | Total bad | NET | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | 2013 NET | 2014 NET | 2015 NET | |||
| The Australian economy | 17% | 36% | -19 | 2% | 15% | 40% | 30% | 6% | 6% | -13 | -13 | -11 | ||
| Australian politics in general | 9% | 62% | -53 | 1% | 8% | 24% | 40% | 22% | 5% | -62 | -53 | -41 | ||
| Large companies and corporations | 26% | 21% | +5 | 3% | 23% | 43% | 17% | 4% | 10% | -9 | +14 | +5 | ||
| Small business | 15% | 37% | -22 | 2% | 13% | 38% | 30% | 7% | 10% | -45 | -28 | -12 | ||
| Trade unions | 13% | 31% | -18 | 2% | 11% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 17% | -25 | -18 | -27 | ||
| The average Australian | 18% | 36% | -18 | 2% | 16% | 41% | 27% | 9% | 5% | -22 | -23 | -14 | ||
| Your personal financial situation | 26% | 34% | -8 | 2% | 24% | 38% | 23% | 11% | 3% | -8 | -11 | -6 | ||
| Your workplace (workers) | 37% | 25% | +12 | 6% | 31% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 4% | +8 | -5 | +14 | ||
| You and your family overall | 36% | 24% | +12 | 6% | 30% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 4% | +18 | +3 | +21 | ||
| The planet | 12% | 44% | -32 | 2% | 10% | 37% | 29% | 15% | 7% | – | – |
Respondents believed that 2016 has been a bad year for all groups except large companies (+5), your workplace (+12) and you and your family overall (+12). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-53) and the planet (-32).
Relative to 2015 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered worse for politics in general (down 12), small businesses (down 10), you and your family overall (down 9) and the Australian economy (down 8) but better for trade unions (up 9).
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2017 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good | Total bad | NET | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | 2013 NET | 2014 NET | 2015 NET | |||
| The Australian economy | 20% | 37% | -17 | 2% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 8% | 10% | -10 | -10 | +2 | ||
| Australian politics in general | 13% | 50% | -37 | 1% | 12% | 27% | 35% | 15% | 10% | -24 | -29 | -5 | ||
| Large companies and corporations | 28% | 20% | +8 | 4% | 24% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 14% | – | +13 | +14 | ||
| Small business | 21% | 31% | -10 | 2% | 19% | 35% | 25% | 6% | 13% | -24 | -17 | +3 | ||
| Trade unions | 14% | 28% | -14 | 2% | 12% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 19% | -26 | -16 | -16 | ||
| The average Australian | 19% | 31% | -12 | 2% | 17% | 40% | 24% | 7% | 9% | -9 | -17 | -2 | ||
| Your personal financial situation | 31% | 25% | +6 | 4% | 27% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 8% | +6 | – | +12 | ||
| Your workplace (workers) | 39% | 19% | +20 | 6% | 33% | 33% | 13% | 6% | 9% | +15 | – | +21 | ||
| You and your family overall | 39% | 18% | +21 | 6% | 33% | 35% | 13% | 5% | 8% | +25 | +10 | +28 | ||
| The planet | 14% | 41% | -27% | 2% | 12% | 35% | 27% | 14% | 10% | – | – | – |
Overall, there was a positive outlook for large companies and corporations (net +8), your personal financial situation (+6), your workplace (+20), and you and your family overall (+21). Expectations were especially negative for Australian politics in general (-37) and the planet (-27).
Compared to last year, respondents were more pessimistic about all items measured except for trade unions (up 2) and particularly more pessimistic for Australian politics in general (down 32), small business (down 13) and the average Australian (down 10).
Q. For each of the following groups of people – do you think the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull understands their issues and is likely to act in their interests?
| Understands their issues and is likely to act in their interests | Understands their issues but is unlikely to act in their interests | Does not understand their issues | Don’t know | |
| Students | 11% | 31% | 38% | 20% |
| Working mothers | 14% | 27% | 40% | 18% |
| Unemployed | 14% | 25% | 45% | 16% |
| Casual and part time workers | 14% | 29% | 40% | 17% |
| Full time workers | 20% | 37% | 25% | 17% |
| People on low incomes | 11% | 26% | 48% | 15% |
| People on high incomes | 56% | 17% | 10% | 17% |
| Pensioners | 13% | 28% | 45% | 15% |
| Self-funded retirees | 18% | 33% | 30% | 19% |
| Small business owners | 20% | 36% | 25% | 18% |
| People who work for small businesses | 13% | 37% | 32% | 18% |
| People who run large corporations | 57% | 17% | 8% | 18% |
| People who work for large corporations | 34% | 30% | 15% | 20% |
57% think Malcolm Turnbull understands the issues of people who run large corporations and will act in their interests and 56% think he will act in the interests of people on high incomes.
37% think Malcolm Turnbull understands the issues for full time workers and people who work for small businesses but is unlikely to act in their interests. 36% think he understands the issues for small business owners but is unlikely to act in their interests.
People whose issues he does not understand included people on low incomes (48%), pensioners (45%) and the unemployed (45%).
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
| Total
|
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | May 2012 | Apr 2013 | Apr 2014 | Mar 2015 | Jan 2016 | Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | |||
| Total good | 23% | 19% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 35% | 45% | 38% | 27% | 28% | 30% | 30% | ||
| Total poor | 36% | 40% | 24% | 35% | 59% | 29% | 26% | 24% | 33% | 31% | 26% | 27% | ||
| Very good | 2% | 3% | 3% | – | 2% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ||
| Good | 21% | 16% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 29% | 37% | 35% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 27% | ||
| Neither good nor poor | 37% | 38% | 37% | 44% | 25% | 33% | 28% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 41% | 40% | ||
| Poor | 28% | 30% | 22% | 32% | 41% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 24% | 24% | 20% | 20% | ||
| Very poor | 8% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 7% | ||
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
23% (down 7% since September) described the economy as good or very good and 36% (up 9%) poor/very poor – 37% said it was neither.
This is the most negative result for this question over the past 4 years.
Liberal National voters were somewhat more optimistic than other voters. Among Labor voters 19% (down 11%) thought it was good and 40% (up 13%) poor; for Liberal/National voters 39% (up 3%) said it was good and 24% (up 3%) poor.
Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
| Total
|
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | May 2010 | May 2011 | Jun 2012 | Apr 2013 | Apr 2014 | May 2015 | Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | |||
| The right direction | 26% | 18% | 50% | 11% | 11% | 51% | 45% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 33% | ||
| The wrong direction | 45% | 54% | 24% | 62% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 32% | 39% | 34% | 40% | 35% | 36% | ||
| Don’t know | 29% | 27% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 31% | 31% |
26% (down 7% since September) of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction and 45% (up 9%) think it is heading in the wrong direction. This is the most negative result for this question over the past 6 years.
18% (down 8%) of Labor voters, 50% (down 2%) of Liberal/National voters and 11% (down 15%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 54% (up 9%) of Labor voters, 24% (up 2%) of Liberal/National voters and 62% (up 22%) of Greens voters think it is heading in the wrong direction.
Q. In the next two years, do you expect your job to be more secure, less secure or about the same?
| Total
|
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Work full time | Work part time | Oct 2014 | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | Apr 2016 | Sep 2016 | ||||
| More Secure | 13% | 12% | 15% | 5% | 15% | 16% | 6% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 14% | 14% | |||
| Less secure | 30% | 35% | 22% | 40% | 40% | 27% | 35% | 31% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 27% | |||
| Much more secure | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 5% | |||
| Somewhat more secure | 9% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 9% | |||
| About the same | 51% | 50% | 61% | 52% | 38% | 53% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 49% | 53% | |||
| Somewhat less secure | 16% | 17% | 11% | 36% | 17% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 19% | 16% | |||
| Much less secure | 14% | 18% | 11% | 4% | 23% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | |||
| Don’t know | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 6% |
13% of respondents (down 1% since September) feel that their job will become more secure over the next two years. 30% (up 3%) feel it will become less secure while the largest proportion (51%) feel it will stay about the same.
Liberal/National voters were more likely to say their job security would be about the same (61%) and less likely to say it would be less secure (22%).
35% of part time workers say they expect their job to be less secure compared to 27% of full time workers.