Q. Do you think the following types of crime have increased or decreased over the last few years?
| Increas-ed a lot | Increas-ed a little | Stayed about the same | Decreas-ed a little | Decreas-ed a lot | Don’t know | Total increas-ed | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Drug-related crime | 53% | 23% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 76% | 76% | 79% | 65% | 86% | |
| Youth gang crime | 49% | 21% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 70% | 65% | 73% | 52% | 86% | |
| Domestic violence | 32% | 31% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 63% | 66% | |
| Violent crime – e.g. assault, murder | 30% | 30% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 8% | 60% | 58% | 63% | 53% | 72% | |
| Burglary | 30% | 27% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 57% | 56% | 57% | 49% | 66% | |
| White collar crime – e.g. fraud, corporate crime | 24% | 31% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 55% | 52% | 61% | 58% | 55% | |
| Car theft | 27% | 26% | 28% | 10% | 2% | 8% | 53% | 51% | 55% | 41% | 58% |
A majority believed that all crimes have increased.
More than two-thirds believe that drug-related crime (76%) and youth gang crime (70%) have increased – and about half think they have increased a lot.
Those more likely to think youth gang crime has increased were Liberal/National voters (73%), other party voters (86%) and aged 45+ (83%).
Q. And which of these types of crime are the most important for the Government to address?
| Most import-ant | 2nd | 3rd | Total import-ant | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Drug-related crime | 26% | 27% | 19% | 72% | 72% | 75% | 60% | 73% | |
| Domestic violence | 29% | 22% | 16% | 67% | 71% | 68% | 76% | 56% | |
| Violent crime – e.g. assault, murder | 16% | 21% | 25% | 62% | 66% | 53% | 67% | 57% | |
| Youth gang crime | 20% | 16% | 17% | 53% | 46% | 57% | 31% | 72% | |
| White collar crime – e.g. fraud, corporate crime | 7% | 8% | 13% | 28% | 27% | 28% | 44% | 22% | |
| Burglary | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 15% | 15% | |
| Car theft | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% |
More than two-thirds think that drug-related crime (72%) and domestic violence (67%) are the most important types of crime for the Government to address.
53% thought youth gang crime was one of the most important. Those most likely to think it important were Liberal/National voters (57%), other party voters (72%) and aged 55+ (60%).
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Mar 2015 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | ||
| Sample | 3,205 | 3,220 | 3,769 | 3,867 | 3,477 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 45.6% | 48% | 47% | 44% | 44% | 43% | |
| Labor | 34.1% | 33% | 34% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| Greens | 10.3% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | |
| Other/Independent | 10.0% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | |
| 2PP | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 54.3% | 56% | 56% | 52% | 52% | 51% | |
| Labor | 45.7% | 44% | 44% | 48% | 48% | 49% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 3,169 | 3,757 | 3,723 | 3,456 | 1,442 | 1,146 | 868 | |
| 43% | 42% | 43% | 40% | 39% | 43% | 40% | |
| 36% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 40% | |
| 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | |
| 12% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | |
| 52% | 51% | 51% | 49% | 47% | 51% | 48% | |
| 48% | 49% | 49% | 51% | 53% | 49% | 52% |
Labor leads the Liberal/National parties on the two-party preferred vote for the first time since the 2015 election – shifting from 51/49 to the LNP in the September quarter to 51/49 to Labor. On first preferences, the LNP is on 40% (down 5.6% since the election), Labor on 39% (up 4.9%) and Greens 9% (down 1.3%).
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Nov 2017 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | ||
| Sample | 1,873 | 1,893 | 2,251 | 2,386 | 2,085 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||
| LNP | 33.7% | 42% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 34% | |
| Labor | 35.4% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 36% | |
| Greens | 10.0% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | |
| One Nation | 13.7% | 12% | |||||
| Katter Party | 2.3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | |
| Other/Independent | 4.9% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 7% | |
| 2PP | |||||||
| LNP | 48.8% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 47% | 46% | |
| Labor | 51.2% | 50% | 52% | 51% | 53% | 54% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | Oct-ober | Nov-ember | Dec-ember | |
| 1,963 | 2,321 | 2,319 | 2,205 | 919 | 732 | 554 | |
| 31% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 38% | 29% | 30% | |
| 35% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 33% | 39% | 38% | |
| 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | |
| 15% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 14% | |
| 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 45% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 52% | 45% | 45% | |
| 55% | 54% | 54% | 52% | 48% | 55% | 55% |
Labor has maintained their lead on 2PP – which dropped a little to 52/47. First preference votes were Labor 36%, LNP 33%, Greens 10% and One Nation 15% – similar figures to the November election.
However, the monthly figures suggest that Labor is enjoying a post-election boost recording a 55/45 2PP for November and December.
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Nov 2014 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | ||
| Sample | 2,402 | 2,383 | 2,803 | 2,880 | 2,631 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 42.0% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 41% | |
| Labor | 38.1% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | |
| Greens | 11.5% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% | |
| Other/Independent | 8.4% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | |
| 2PP | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 48.0% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | |
| Labor | 52.0% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 2,413 | 2,838 | 2,859 | 2,633 | 1,096 | 870 | 667 | |
| 40% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 46% | |
| 39% | 38% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 37% | 37% | |
| 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | |
| 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 8% | |
| 47% | 47% | 48% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| 53% | 53% | 52% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 49% |
First preference votes were Labor 38%, LNP 43%, Greens 10% – very similar figures to the 2014 election.
Over the last half of 2017 the LNP has closed the 2PP gap on Labor – currently at 51/49 to Labor. However, the monthly figures suggest that the LNP is continuing to make gains, recording a lead of 51/49 in December.
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Mar 2017 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | ||
| Sample | 946 | 931 | 1,105 | 1,115 | 1,035 | 1,023 | 1,205 | 1,212 | 1,145 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 31.2% | 37% | 40% | 37% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 32% | 29% | |
| National | 5.4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | |
| Labor | 42.2% | 35% | 34% | 39% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 44% | 39% | 41% | |
| Greens | 8.9% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 13% | |
| One Nation | 4.9% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 7% | ||||||
| Other/Independent | 7.4% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | |
| 2PP | |||||||||||
| Liberal/National | 44.5% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 43% | |
| Labor | 55.5% | 49% | 48% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 57% |
Labor has maintained a very strong 2PP lead over the Liberal and National parties since the March election – up 3 points on the previous quarter to 57/43.
On first preference votes Labor is on 41% (down 1.2% since the election), Liberal 29% (down 2.2%), Nationals 4% (down 1.4%) and Greens 13% (up 4.1%).
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Mar 2014 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | ||
| Sample | 797 | 803 | 912 | 942 | 880 | 779 | 911 | 948 | 876 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 44.8% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 32% | 28% | 31% | 30% | 31% | |
| Labor | 35.8% | 39% | 37% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 35% | 36% | 37% | 34% | |
| Greens | 8.7% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | |
| Nick Xenophon ‘s SA-Best | 15% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 18% | 22% | |||
| Other/Independent | 10.7% | 19% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 6% | |
| 2PP | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 53.0% | 46% | 46% | 49% | 46% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 49% | |
| Labor | 47.0% | 54% | 54% | 51% | 54% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 51% |
On first preference votes Labor is on 34%, Liberals 31%, SA-Best 22% and Greens 8%. SA-Best (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) is up 4 points on the previous quarter.
The 2PP favours Labor 51/49, but is very much dependent on the flow of SA-Best preferences (approximated at 60/40 to the Liberals which is the pollster’s estimate based on current polling).
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week 12/12/17 | 2 weeks ago 5/12/17 | 4 weeks ago 21/11/17 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 34% | 33% | 32% | 32% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 37% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | |||
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 47% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 53% | 54% | 55% | 54% | 49.6% |