State voting intention VIC

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

	Election Nov 2014		Oct-Dec 2015	Jan-Mar 2016	Apr-Jun 2016	Jul-Sep 2016	Oct-Dec 2016
Sample			2,402	2,383	2,803	2,880	2,631
First preference vote
Liberal/National	42.0%		40%	41%	41%	40%	41%
Labor	38.1%		38%	38%	38%	38%	38%
Greens	11.5%		13%	13%	12%	12%	11%
Other/Independent	8.4%		9%	8%	9%	10%	9%
2PP
Liberal/National	48.0%		47%	47%	47%	47%	47%
Labor	52.0%		53%	53%	53%	53%	53%

Jan-Mar 2017	Apr-Jun 2017	Jul-Sep 2017	Oct-Dec 2017		Oct	Nov	Dec
2,413	2,838	2,859	2,633		1,096	870	667
40%	41%	42%	43%		40%	43%	46%
39%	38%	39%	38%		38%	37%	37%
11%	12%	10%	10%		11%	10%	9%
10%	9%	9%	10%		10%	11%	8%
47%	47%	48%	49%		47%	49%	51%
53%	53%	52%	51%		53%	51%	49%

First preference votes were Labor 38%, LNP 43%, Greens 10% – very similar figures to the 2014 election.
Over the last half of 2017 the LNP has closed the 2PP gap on Labor – currently at 51/49 to Labor. However, the monthly figures suggest that the LNP is continuing to make gains, recording a lead of 51/49 in December.