Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,795 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election 7 Sep 13 | 4 weeks ago 17/3/15 |
2 weeks ago 31/3/15 | Last week 7/4/15 |
This week 14/4/15 | |
| Liberal | 37% | 36% | 36% | 37% | ||
| National | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ||
| Total Liberal/National | 45.6% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 41% | |
| Labor | 33.4% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 39% | |
| Greens | 8.6% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |
| Palmer United Party | 5.5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Other/Independent | 6.9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2 Party Preferred | Election 7 Sep 13 | 4 weeks ago 17/3/15 |
2 weeks ago 31/3/15 | Last week 7/4/15 |
This week 14/4/15 | |
| Liberal National | 53.5% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 48% | |
| Labor | 46.5% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote Greens | Vote Other | Sep 2013 | Mar 2014 | June 2014 | Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | |||
| Total approve | 33% | 9% | 75% | 4% | 15% | 41% | 40% | 35% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 31% | ||
| Total dis- approve |
58% | 88% | 18% | 89% | 76% | 36% | 47% | 58% | 55% | 53% | 62% | 56% | ||
| Strongly approve | 7% | 1% | 17% | 1% | 2% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | ||
| Approve | 26% | 8% | 58% | 3% | 13% | 27% | 29% | 25% | 24% | 28% | 22% | 24% | ||
| Dis- approve |
28% | 34% | 16% | 31% | 44% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 26% | 22% | ||
| Strongly dis- approve |
30% | 54% | 2% | 58% | 32% | 23% | 27% | 40% | 33% | 30% | 36% | 34% | ||
| Don’t know | 9% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 12% |
58% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – up 2% since the last time this question was asked in March – and 33% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (up 2%). This represents no change in his net rating of -25.
75% (up 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 18% (down 2%) disapproving. 88% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.
By gender men were 36% approve/57% disapprove and women 30% approve/59% disapprove.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote Greens | Vote Other | Nov 2013 | Mar 2014 | June 2014 | Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | |||
| Total approve | 33% | 61% | 18% | 30% | 9% | 31% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 34% | ||
| Total dis- approve |
42% | 18% | 65% | 40% | 59% | 27% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 33% | 38% | 39% | ||
| Strongly approve | 6% | 14% | 3% | 4% | – | 5% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | ||
| Approve | 27% | 47% | 15% | 26% | 9% | 26% | 28% | 31% | 28% | 32% | 25% | 29% | ||
| Dis- approve |
25% | 17% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 17% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 19% | 21% | 21% | ||
| Strongly dis- approve |
17% | 1% | 35% | 7% | 23% | 10% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 17% | 18% | ||
| Don’t know | 25% | 22% | 18% | 30% | 32% | 43% | 29% | 22% | 26% | 28% | 29% | 27% |
33% (down 1% since March) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 42% (up 3%) disapprove – for a change in net rating from -5 to -9.
61% (no change) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 18% (no change) disapprove.
35% of men and 30% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 46% of men and 39% of women disapprove.
Abbott, Better Prime Minister, Shorten
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote Greens | Vote Other | Oct 2013 | Mar 2014 | June 2014 | Dec 2104 | Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | |||
| Tony Abbott | 32% | 4% | 76% | 2% | 19% | 41% | 39% | 36% | 31% | 35% | 31% | 33% | ||
| Bill Shorten | 35% | 69% | 5% | 62% | 23% | 22% | 33% | 40% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 37% | ||
| Don’t know | 33% | 26% | 19% | 36% | 57% | 37% | 28% | 24% | 33% | 28% | 30% | 30% |
32% (down 1% since March) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 35% (down 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.
36% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 36% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Bill Shorten 34% to 29%.
asylum seeker, genuine, refugees
Q. As far as you know, are most asylum seekers arriving by in Australia boat genuine refugees or are most of them not genuine refugees?
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Total
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Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Jan 2014 | ||
| Most of them are genuine refugees | 32% | 37% | 26% | 64% | 27% | 30% | ||
| Most of them are not genuine refugees | 43% | 40% | 53% | 16% | 50% | 47% | ||
| Don’t know | 25% | 22% | 21% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
43% of respondents believe that most asylum seekers arriving by boat are not genuine refugees – 32% believe most are genuine refugees. This is a shift toward believing they are genuine since this question was asked in January last year.
Those more likely to think most are not genuine refugees were Liberal/National voters (53%) and aged 55+ (59%). Those more likely to think most are genuine refugees were Greens voters (64%), Labor voters (37%) and those with university education (42%).
Q. Which of the following comes is closest to your view?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Jan 2014 | |||
| All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees | 21% | 21% | 27% | 4% | 16% | 26% | ||
| Asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees | 49% | 56% | 43% | 72% | 42% | 46% | ||
| Asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees | 16% | 12% | 20% | 8% | 21% | 15% | ||
| All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia whether they are genuine refugees or not | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 3% | ||
| Don’t know | 11% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
49% (up 3% since January 2014) think that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees and 21% (down 5%) think all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees. Only 16% think asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees.
Those more likely to think they should be sent back to the country they came from were Liberal/National voters (27%) and aged 55+ (25%).
Those more likely to think they should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees were Greens voters (72%), Labor voters (56%) and those with university education (56%).
approach to asylum seekers, asylum seeker
Q. Do you think the Federal Liberal/National Government is too tough or too soft on asylum seekers or is it taking the right approach?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Oct 2010 | Jul 2012 | Jan 2014 | Mar 2014 | Jul 2014 | Jan 2015 | |||
| Too tough | 22% | 31% | 6% | 67% | 26% | 7% | 12% | 22% | 25% | 27% | 26% | ||
| Too soft | 27% | 27% | 27% | 12% | 36% | 63% | 60% | 25% | 28% | 18% | 23% | ||
| Taking the right approach | 34% | 24% | 58% | 8% | 20% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 34% | 36% | 35% | ||
| Don’t know | 17% | 17% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 16% |
27% think the Government is too soft on asylum seekers, 22% think they are too tough and 34% think they are taking the right approach.
Since this question was last asked in January, those thinking the Government are too soft has increased a little from 23% to 27%.
Those most likely to think they are taking the right approach were Liberal/National voters (58%) and aged 55+ (46%).
Q. If a politician voluntarily leaves their party (for example, Jacquie Lambie and Glen Lazarus have both left the Palmer United Party) which of the following actions would you favour?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote Other | ||
| The should be allowed to remain in Parliament | 24% | 31% | 16% | 30% | 35% | |
| They should leave Parliament and a new election be held for their seat | 41% | 34% | 52% | 36% | 40% | |
| They should be replaced with a new member nominated by their former party | 19% | 23% | 20% | 14% | 15% | |
| Don’t know | 16% | 13% | 12% | 20% | 10% |
41% think that if a politician voluntarily leaves their party they should leave Parliament and a new election be held for their seat. 24% think they should be allowed to remain in Parliament and 19% think they should be replaced with a new member nominated by their former party.
52% of Liberal/National voters favour a new election and other party voters are more likely to think they should be allowed to remain in Parliament (35%).