Essential: the polling slide that evicted Rudd from the Lodge
First Published on Crikey Thursday 24th June
Essential Reports polls taken over the last 2 years show how Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have declined since he almost unprecedented figures he achieved following his election through to early last year. Up to March last year approval hovered around the high 60% level into the low 70%. Is net approval (i.e. approve minus disapprove) was around the mid 40% level.
Throughout 2009 and early 2010 his approval went into steady decline but still remained in positive territory. At the end of March he recorded 53% approval and 36% disapproval. However, the most dramatic shift occurred in April and May when his approval first entered negative territory with 41% approve and 47% disapprove. The decline appeared to be accelerating.
Some of the reasons for this sudden decline can be found in how the personal perceptions of Kevin Rudd changed from 2009 to May this year. His attribute ratings showed significant falls in the percentage of people who considered him to be a capable leader (72% to 55%), good in a crisis (60%-44%) and trustworthy (51%-41%). Meanwhile his ratings for “out of touch with ordinary people” increased from 41% to 55%. It indicates a significant loss of confidence in his performance as Prime Minister.
Last week’s Essential Report showed only weak support for Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next election – 40% thought the Labor Party would have better chance of winning the election if they changed leader and 37% thought Kevin Rudd was the best person to lead the labor Party. Even among Labor voters only 66% supported Kevin Rudd as leader and 23% though they should change. (more…)
The real leadership story: Abbott remains unelectable
First published in The Punch 21st June 2010
This is the week when another round of disastrous opinion polls was meant to spark a mass uprising within the Labor Caucus, as members convinced they were facing one-term oblivion hitched their wagon to Julia Gillard.
Everything was in place, a bunch of unsourced comment pieces predicting a move on the PM, an early Newspoll published in Monday’s Australian. And then? Well apart from a slight narrowing in preferred PM, no real movement in the polls.
Entering the spirit of leadership speculation, Essential Research asked our own series of leadership questions. What emerges is a completely different story – the failure of Tony Abbott to convince voters he is the man to lead the Coalition to the election. Now before you all start flaming me (again) for being a Left-ist agent of the evil ALP, let’s have a look at the questions we asked. (more…)
Changing Leaders – Tony Abbott
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott is the best person to lead the Liberal Party to the next election or would the Liberal Party have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | |
| Tony Abbott is the best person to lead the Liberal Party to the next election | 29% | 14% | 62% |
| The Liberal Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders | 47% | 65% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 21% | 13% |
47% of respondents thought the Liberal Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leader – 29% thought Tony Abbott was the best person to be leader.
Liberal/National voters supported Tony Abbott as leader by 62% to 25%. 79% of Greens voters and 49% of other/independent voters thought the Liberal Party should change their leader. Men (34%) and those aged 65+ (34%) were the strongest supporters of Tony Abbott remaining as leader. (more…)
The Doddcast: Canberra Report 21st June
While Canberra doesn’t look like getting above 15 degrees this week, there’s a chance the term of this government is heating up.
Whether they’re currently half baked or have they been left too long, today’s poll shows that they’re the same stale position they’ve been in for the last week.
Kevin looks like spending the day explaining to the Chinese dep pres what rat fucker means.
Today’s opinion poll will fuel speculation about a mid September poll, with sources suggesting that Kevin Rudd is aware of fact that football finals exist but doesn’t think his team can do any worse than Andrew Johns. (more…)
RSPT
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view in relation to the Government’s proposed resources super profits tax?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | |
| The new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs | 42% | 16% | 72% |
| Mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax. | 40% | 69% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 15% | 11% |
Respondents were split over which statement best described their view of the Government’s proposed resources super profits tax – 42% agreed “the new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs” and 40% agreed “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax”.
Opinions were strongly related to party preference – 69% of Labor voters agreed that “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax” and 72% of Liberal/National voters agreed that “the new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs”.
53% of those on low incomes (<$600pw) agreed that “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax”. (more…)
Opinion of Leaders
Q. From the following list of current and recent leaders of the Liberal/Labor Party – rate each in terms of whether you think they were a good or poor leader of their party.
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Average | Poor | Very poor | Don’t know | |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 34% | 7% | 23% | 29% | 14% | 20% | 7% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 28% | 33% | 6% | 22% | 32% | 20% | 13% | 8% |
| Brendan Nelson | 13% | 44% | 2% | 11% | 33% | 28% | 16% | 11% |
| John Howard | 51% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 18% | 11% | 15% | 5% |
| Kevin Rudd | 38% | 34% | 10% | 28% | 23% | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Kim Beazley | 29% | 29% | 7% | 22% | 36% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| Mark Latham | 7% | 62% | 2% | 5% | 23% | 26% | 36% | 8% |
| Simon Crean | 9% | 47% | 2% | 7% | 32% | 29% | 18% | 12% |
| Paul Keating | 40% | 26% | 14% | 26% | 27% | 12% | 14% | 8% |
Overall, John Howard (51% good/26% poor) was considered the best Liberal Party leader of recent times and Paul Keating (40%/26%) the best Labor leader.
However the current leaders – Kevin Rudd (38% good/34% poor) and Tony Abbott (30%/34%) – were both considered better than the leaders they succeeded.
Among Liberal/National voters Tony Abbott was rated good by 63%, compared to John Howard at 86% and Malcolm Turnbull at 37%.
Among Labor voters Kevin Rudd was rated good by 78%, compared to Paul Keating at 58% and Kim Beazley at 40%. (more…)
Polling to the People
The Essential Report is fast becoming one of the nation’s most-quoted polls – after all it’s regular, it’s insightful and it’s free.
The fact that EMC has been able to produce and promote the poll highlights much that is good with the capacity of new media to create and share information.
So how do we get to give away so much polling every week?
Well it starts with relationships. Your Source are one of the companies who pioneered the development of online panels. They have built up a panel of more than 70,000 participants, who receive incentives (redeemable credits to shop at Myer) and work a weekly national omnibus, mainly for commercial clients. (more…)
Trust to handle issue of asylum seekers
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the issue of asylum seekers?
| % | |
| The Labor Party | 23% |
| The Liberal Party | 34% |
| No difference | 28% |
| Don’t know | 15% |
34% of people trust the Liberal Party most to handle the issue of asylum seekers and 23% trust the Labor Party more. 28% think there is no difference and 15% don’t know.
Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to trust Labor (46%) and Coalition voters were more likely to trust Liberal most (77%). Green voters were more likely to trust Labor when it comes to handling the issue of asylum seekers (38%).
34% of Labor voters think there is no difference when it comes to which party they trust to handle the issue.
People aged 55 years and over were more likely to trust the Liberal party to handle the issue (49%), while those aged 18 – 24 were more likely to trust Labor (38%).
In November 2009, we asked people which party they think is best to handle the issue of asylum seekers. We found that 23% thought Labor, 27% thought Liberal and 37% thought there would be no difference in terms of which party would be best to handle the issue. (more…)
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