Essential Report

State Voting Intention

Oct 11, 2016

State Voting Intention – NSW

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016   July August Sept-ember
Sample     3,205 3,220 3,769 3,867   1,177 1,499 1,191
First preference vote                    
Liberal/National 45.6%   48% 47% 44% 44%   45% 45% 42%
Labor 34.1%   33% 34% 37% 37%   36% 36% 39%
Greens 10.3%   10% 10% 9% 9%   9% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 10.0%   10% 10% 10% 10%   10% 11% 11%
                     
2PP                    
Liberal/National 54.3%   56% 56% 52% 52%   53% 53% 50%
Labor 45.7%   44% 44% 48% 48%   47% 47% 50%

State Voting Intention – Queensland

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Jan 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016   July August Sept-ember
Sample     1,873 1,893 2,251 2,386   711 844 701
First preference vote                    
LNP 41.3%   42% 40% 40% 38%   41% 35% 37%
Labor 37.5%   39% 40% 37% 37%   37% 40% 35%
Greens 8.4%   8% 9% 8% 8%   7% 9% 8%
One Nation             10%
Katter Party 1.9%   3% 2% 3% 2%   2% 1% 1%
Other/Independent 10.9%   8% 10% 12% 15%   13% 15% 9%
                     
2PP                    
LNP 48.9%   50% 48% 49% 47%   49% 44% 48%
Labor 51.1%   50% 52% 51% 53%   51% 56% 52%

State Voting Intention – Victoria

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016   July August Sept-ember
Sample     2,402 2,383 2,803 2,880   895 1,093 892
First preference vote                    
Liberal/National 42.0%   40% 41% 41% 40%   39% 40% 41%
Labor 38.1%   38% 38% 38% 38%   39% 38% 38%
Greens 11.5%   13% 13% 12% 12%   11% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 8.4%   9% 8% 9% 10%   11% 10% 9%
                     
2PP                    
Liberal/National 48.0%   47% 47% 47% 47%   47% 47% 47%
Labor 52.0%   53% 53% 53% 53%   53% 53% 53%

State Voting Intention – South Australia

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016
Sample     797 803 912 942
First preference vote            
Liberal 44.8%   32% 29% 30% 30%
Labor 35.8%   39% 37% 34% 38%
Greens 8.7%   10% 9% 7% 7%
Nick Xenophon Team       15% 20% 16%
Other/Independent 10.7%   19% 10% 9% 9%
             
2PP            
Liberal 53.0%   46% 46% 49% 46%
Labor 47.0%   54% 54% 51% 54%

State Voting Intention – Western Australia

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2013

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016
Sample     946 931 1,105 1,115
First preference vote            
Liberal 47.1%   37% 40% 37% 34%
National 6.1%   6% 4% 5% 4%
Labor 33.1%   35% 34% 39% 39%
Greens 8.4%   12% 12% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 5.3%   10% 10% 10% 12%
             
2PP            
Liberal/National 57.3%   51% 52% 49% 47%
Labor 42.7%   49% 48% 51% 53%

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