State voting intention

Nov 26, 2014
Essential Research

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Victoria

Election

Nov 2010

 

Total

 

Mar 14

June 14

Sep 14

Oct 14

Sample

 

794

962

1,184

1,084

899

First preference vote

 

Liberal/National

44.8%

40%

42%

41%

39%

39%

Labor

36.2%

39%

39%

40%

39%

38%

Greens

11.2%

13%

9%

10%

11%

12%

Other/Independent

7.8%

8%

10%

9%

11%

11%

2PP
Liberal/National

51.6%

47%

50%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

48.4%

53%

50%

52%

52%

52%

Aggregated weekly polls over the past 3 weeks show first preferences at 40% Liberal-National, 39% Labor and 13% Greens for a two party preferred vote of 53% Labor/47% Liberal-National. This represents a swing to Labor of 4-5%.

NB. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election.

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