Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Victoria |
Election Nov 2010 |
|
Total |
|
Mar 14 |
June 14 |
Sep 14 |
Oct 14 |
| Sample |
|
794 |
962 |
1,184 |
1,084 |
899 |
||
| First preference vote |
|
|||||||
| Liberal/National |
44.8% |
40% |
42% |
41% |
39% |
39% |
||
| Labor |
36.2% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
39% |
38% |
||
| Greens |
11.2% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
||
| Other/Independent |
7.8% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
||
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Liberal/National |
51.6% |
47% |
50% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
||
| Labor |
48.4% |
53% |
50% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
Aggregated weekly polls over the past 3 weeks show first preferences at 40% Liberal-National, 39% Labor and 13% Greens for a two party preferred vote of 53% Labor/47% Liberal-National. This represents a swing to Labor of 4-5%.
NB. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election.