Essential Report

Likelihood of voting

Aug 22, 2017

Q. How likely are you to vote in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Support same sex marriage Don’t support same sex marriage
Total will vote 81%   84% 84% 89% 81%   78% 84% 78% 79% 87%   92% 74%
Total will not vote 10%   8% 10% 4% 12%   12% 10% 11% 12% 7%   4% 19%
Will definitely vote 63%   63% 70% 57% 65%   59% 67% 55% 63% 72%   74% 58%
Will probably vote 18%   21% 14% 32% 16%   19% 17% 23% 16% 15%   18% 16%
Will probably not vote 4%   4% 3% 1% 7%   5% 4% 7% 4% 2%   2% 7%
Will definitely not vote 6%   4% 7% 3% 5%   7% 6% 4% 8% 5%   2% 12%
Not sure 9%   8% 6% 7% 8%   10% 7% 10% 9% 6%   4% 7%

 

63% say they will definitely vote in the same-sex marriage national vote and 18% will probably vote.

A similar question asked in August 2016 showed – Definitely vote 48%, Probably vote 24%, Probably not vote 13%, Definitely not vote 6%, Not sure 8%.

Those most likely to definitely vote are Liberal/National voters (70%), women (67%) and aged 55+ (72%).

74% of those in favour of same-sex marriage will definitely vote compared to 58% of those opposed.

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