Essential Report
Likelihood of voting
Q. How likely are you to vote in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage?
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Support same sex marriage | Don’t support same sex marriage | ||||
Total will vote | 81% | 84% | 84% | 89% | 81% | 78% | 84% | 78% | 79% | 87% | 92% | 74% | |||
Total will not vote | 10% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 19% | |||
Will definitely vote | 63% | 63% | 70% | 57% | 65% | 59% | 67% | 55% | 63% | 72% | 74% | 58% | |||
Will probably vote | 18% | 21% | 14% | 32% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 16% | |||
Will probably not vote | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 7% | |||
Will definitely not vote | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 12% | |||
Not sure | 9% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 7% |
63% say they will definitely vote in the same-sex marriage national vote and 18% will probably vote.
A similar question asked in August 2016 showed – Definitely vote 48%, Probably vote 24%, Probably not vote 13%, Definitely not vote 6%, Not sure 8%.
Those most likely to definitely vote are Liberal/National voters (70%), women (67%) and aged 55+ (72%).
74% of those in favour of same-sex marriage will definitely vote compared to 58% of those opposed.

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