Essential Report

Expected Winner

May 16, 2019

Q. Which party do you expect will win the 2019 Federal election and form Government?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other Last week


Two weeks ago


Labor 59% 92% 29% 75% 55% 54% 59%
Liberal/National 41% 8% 71% 25% 45% 46% 41%
  • Heading into the final week of campaigning, 59% of voters believe Labor will triumph over the Liberal/National coalition in the 2019 Federal election, up 5%pts from last week from 54% and equivalent to the start of the campaign at the end of April.
  • 92% of Labor voters are confident that Labor will win on Saturday. Similarly, the majority of Greens voters (75%) and those voting for independents or minor parties (55%) expect a Labor victory.
  • Voters for the Coalition expect them to form the next Government following the result on Saturday (71%). This has decreased from 79% last week.


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