Essential Report

Expectation of national vote

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Do you expect this national vote on same sex marriage will pass?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Vote yes Vote no
Yes 47%   48% 48% 58% 46%   48% 45% 53% 43% 46%   63% 24%
No 24%   22% 26% 17% 31%   28% 20% 18% 28% 23%   11% 55%
Not sure 30%   29% 26% 25% 23%   24% 35% 30% 29% 31%   26% 21%

47% believe that the vote on same-sex marriage will pass and 24% think it will not pass.

63% of those voting “yes” think it will pass but 55% of those voting “no” think it will not pass.

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