Essential Report Returns With New 2PP Formula
Tuesday 28 July
Essential Research will today publish polling on voting intention for the first time since the 2019 Federal election, with a new methodology that gives deeper insight into the public mood.
The Essential Report, published with Guardian Australia, will now include undecided voters in its reporting, creating a “2PP+” index that will give voice to the least engaged in the electorate.
Critically, Essential will only publish these figures quarterly to mitigate the tendency to report on minor movements as some sort of political horse race.
The 2PP+ is part of an overhaul of the Essential Report following a 12-month review into the performance of political polls in Australia and internationally in recent times.
Essential Director Peter Lewis says the Essential Report’s renewed 2PP+ addresses a lack of nuance in traditional voting intention statistics.
“Even in the final poll of the campaign seven per cent of Australians could not give an opinion, even though they were required by law to vote,” says Mr Lewis.
“In the name of simplicity we removed them from the analysis – effectively disenfranchising the disengaged.”
Mr Lewis says he is confident the new polling model will provide valuable insight into the national mood without purporting to be a political scoreboard.
“The simple fact that one side is not polling above 50 per cent will help dispel the idea that polls are about predicting winners.
“Additionally, by only releasing the series of fortnightly polls on a quarterly basis, we will be removing the tendency to read surplus meaning into statistically irrelevant movements.
“In the absence of voting intention, we have gleaned rich insights from the issues research we have been undertaken since the election and this will continue to be released on a fortnightly basis.”
The first quarterly numbers released today shows that while the federal government has been attracting more support than the Labor Opposition this has shifted in recent weeks, with between seven and 10 per cent of voters unable to name a preference.
Media contact: Hannah Craft, 0423 377 965