Essential Report

Changing Leaders – Likelihood of Voting Labor

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Does having Julia Gillard as Prime Minister make you more or less likely to vote for the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total more likely 26% 44% 11% 31%
Total less likely 24% 11% 38% 22%
Much more likely 10% 24% 1% 5%
A bit more likely 16% 20% 10% 26%
A bit less likely 8% 8% 6% 12%
Much less likely 16% 3% 32% 10%
Makes no difference 41% 40% 47% 40%
Don’t know 8% 5% 3% 7%

Sample = 818

In aggregate, the results indicate the change will have little impact on voting intentions. 41% say it makes no difference to their vote, 26% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 24% less likely. Among Labor voters 44% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 11% less likely.

Greens voters were overall a little more positive about voting Labor – 31% more likely and 22% less likely.

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