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  • May, 2013

    , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,945 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    15/4/13

    2 weeks ago

    29/4/13

    Last week

    6/5/13

    This week

    13/5/13

    Liberal

    44%

    45%

    44%

    44%

    National

    3%

    3%

    4%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    34%

    33%

    34%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    10%

    10%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    55%

    55%

    56%

    55%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    45%

    44%

    45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • May, 2013

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec

    14 June 2011

    12 Dec

    12 Jun 2012

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    11 Feb

    11 Mar

    15 Apr

    13 May

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    34%

    34%

    32%

    37%

    41%

    36%

    36%

    34%

    38%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    54%

    54%

    56%

    53%

    49%

    55%

    56%

    56%

    54%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    10%

    9%

    7%

    8%

    8%

    10%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    28%

    28%

    26%

    27%

    32%

    29%

    28%

    26%

    28%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    29%

    25%

    22%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    24%

    23%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    25%

    29%

    34%

    28%

    26%

    30%

    32%

    33%

    31%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    11%

    12%

    11%

    10%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    38% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 2%) disapprove – a 6-point change in net rating from -22 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.

    78% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 16% disapprove (down 2%).

    By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/51% disapprove.  In net terms this represents no change with men and an improvement with women (from -25 to -13).

  • May, 2013

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 June  2011

    12 Dec

    12 Jun 2012

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    11 Feb

    11 Mar

    15 Apr

    13 May

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    33%

    36%

    37%

    37%

    40%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    48%

    53%

    54%

    56%

    57%

    53%

    51%

    52%

    50%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    8%

    7%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    32%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    29%

    30%

    29%

    31%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    25%

    25%

    24%

    25%

    27%

    22%

    22%

    24%

    18%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    28%

    30%

    31%

    30%

    31%

    29%

    28%

    32%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    15%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -10 over the last 4 weeks, Tony Abbott’s best rating since July 2011.

    77% (up 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 8%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 42% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -9 to -7 and with women from -22 to -13.

  • May, 2013

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 June

    2011

    12 Dec

    12 Jun 2012

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    11 Feb

    11 Mar

    15 Apr

    13 May

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    41%

    39%

    37%

    43%

    42%

    39%

    39%

    37%

    39%

    86%

    2%

    76%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    36%

    35%

    37%

    34%

    33%

    37%

    39%

    39%

    41%

    3%

    84%

    2%

    Don’t know

    21%

    24%

    26%

    26%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    22%

    24%

    20%

    11%

    13%

    22%

    39% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 41% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 44%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 43%/38%.

  • May, 2013

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    NDIS

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    57%

    77%

    45%

    75%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    14%

    42%

    18%

    Strongly approve

    20%

    37%

    6%

    40%

    Approve

    37%

    40%

    39%

    35%

    Disapprove

    17%

    10%

    24%

    12%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    4%

    18%

    6%

    Don’t know

    13%

    9%

    12%

    7%

    57% approve and 30% disapprove the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%.

    A substantial majority of Labor (77%) and Greens voters (75%) approve but Liberal/National voters are split 45% approve/42% disapprove.

    Respondents most likely to approve were aged 55+ (68% approve/22% disapprove) and those earning less than $600pw (72%/19%).

  • May, 2013

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    House of Representatives

    Q. Thinking about the House of Representatives, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives

    49%

    47%

    61%

    25%

    The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives

    25%

    28%

    18%

    56%

    Don’t know

    26%

    24%

    21%

    19%

    49% think that the best Government would be if the governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives while 25% think the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power.

    A majority (56%) of Greens voters would prefer to see the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power while a majority (61%) of Liberal/National voters think the governing party should have an absolute majority.

  • May, 2013

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    The Senate

    Q. Now thinking about the Senate, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The Government also has a majority in the Senate

    32%

    36%

    39%

    18%

    The Opposition has a majority in the Senate

    8%

    6%

    11%

    3%

    The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the Senate

    25%

    31%

    15%

    54%

    It doesn’t matter who has control or balance of power in the Senate

    7%

    4%

    8%

    3%

    Don’t know

    28%

    23%

    27%

    23%

    32% think that the Government should also have a majority in the Senate while 25% think the independents and minor parties hold the balance of power. 8% think the Opposition should have a majority.

    Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to favour the Government having a majority in the Senate (39%) while Greens (54%) and Labor (31%) were more likely to favour the independents and minor parties holding the balance of power.

  • May, 2013

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    Rating of Independents

    Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?

     

    Total good

    Total bad

    Very Good

    Good

    Bad

    Very Bad

    Don’t know

     

    Oct 11

    Total Good

    Oct 11 Total Bad

    Rob Oakeshott

    30%

    30%

    6%

    24%

    14%

    16%

    41%

    23%

    34%

    Tony Windsor

    29%

    29%

    7%

    22%

    14%

    15%

    42%

    23%

    32%

    Andrew Wilkie

    28%

    30%

    4%

    24%

    17%

    13%

    42%

    24%

    34%

    Bob Katter

    26%

    41%

    4%

    22%

    19%

    22%

    34%

    27%

    36%

    There were mixed opinions about the performance of the independents in Parliament. Respondents were similarly split over the performances of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie but somewhat more negative about Bob Katter.

    In NSW, Rob Oakeshott was rated 30% good/37% bad and Tony Windsor 29% good/36% bad. In Queensland Bob Katter was rated 33% good/36% bad.

    Since this question was last asked in October 2011, the ratings of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie have improved a little while Bob Katter’s has declined.

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