Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 June |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
41% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
81% |
6% |
62% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
36% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
37% |
39% |
39% |
6% |
78% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
22% |
24% |
13% |
16% |
32% |
37% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott. This is the first time since August 2012 that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
89% |
5% |
84% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
1% |
73% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
10% |
22% |
14% |
42% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 39%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
43% |
92% |
6% |
80% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
34% |
4% |
71% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
23% |
23% |
5% |
23% |
19% |
43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 81% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 40% | 5% | 79% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 16% | 23% |
36% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 40% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Tony Abbott of 6% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +4%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 43%/37% and women favour Tony Abbott 37%/36%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 82% | 7% | 73% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 1% | 73% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 17% | 20% | 20% |
38% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Julia Gillard of 4% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +2%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/35% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.
Preferred Leader of the Labor Party
Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Kevin Rudd | 37% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 30% |
| Julia Gillard | 12% | 31% | 2% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 11% | 6% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Stephen Smith | 7% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Bob Brown | 3% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Greg Combet | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Bill Shorten | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 9% | 32% | 18% | 22% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.
Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.
Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 85% | 6% | 68% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 5% | 75% | 9% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 23% |
37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
Vote if Kevin Rudd Labor Leader
Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 36% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 41% | 45% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 5% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.
Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.
Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.
Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader
Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 44% | 49% |
| National | 4% | 4% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 53% |
| Labor | 28% | 31% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.
Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.
The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 84% | 7% | 65% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 5% | 73% | 11% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 11% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).
Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.
Party trusted to handle important election issues
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 29% | 47% | 3% | 22% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 38% | 35% | 5% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 33% | 35% | 6% | 25% |
| Protecting the environment | 18% | 21% | 39% | 23% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 40% | 31% | 4% | 24% |
| Political leadership | 26% | 38% | 5% | 31% |
| Addressing climate change | 21% | 24% | 29% | 26% |
| Controlling interest rates | 26% | 44% | 3% | 28% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 35% | 35% | 4% | 26% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 21% | 28% | 22% | 29% |
| Housing affordability | 26% | 34% | 4% | 35% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 29% | 37% | 4% | 30% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 25% | 40% | 3% | 32% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 19% | 39% | 11% | 31% |
| Managing population growth | 21% | 36% | 7% | 36% |
Labor is the most trusted party on only one issue – a fair industrial relations system. There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
This represents a weakening in Labor’s position over the last few months. In January Labor was trusted most to handle ensuring a quality education for all children and in October Labor also had a significant lead on protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
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Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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