Lib/Nat majority in the Senate
Q. If the Liberal and National Parties win the next election, do you think it would be good or bad if they also won a majority in the Senate?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total Good | 38% | 10% | 73% | 6% |
| Total Bad | 31% | 63% | 3% | 72% |
| Very good | 17% | 3% | 35% | 0% |
| Good | 21% | 7% | 38% | 6% |
| Neither good nor bad | 18% | 18% | 16% | 15% |
| Bad | 12% | 23% | 3% | 18% |
| Very bad | 19% | 40% | 0% | 54% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
Most respondents think that having the Liberal and National Parties holding a majority in the Senate is a good outcome (38%), than those that think it is a bad outcome (31%).
Greens voters are the most likely to regard the outcome as bad (72%), followed by Labor voters (63%).
Male respondents are more likely to regard this outcome as good (45% total good) compared to female respondents (33% total good).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,847
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 31% | 32% | 30% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 57% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 11% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has been at a similar level for the past 4 months. 39% (up 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (no change) disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -11 over the last 4 weeks.
74% (up 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 18% (down 2%) disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/52% disapprove, women 36% approve/48% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 81% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 40% | 5% | 79% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 16% | 23% |
36% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 40% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Tony Abbott of 6% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +4%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 43%/37% and women favour Tony Abbott 37%/36%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,878
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 47% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 50% | 50% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 30% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 56% | 57% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 82% | 11% | 80% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 9% | 84% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
40% think that the Labor Government should run its full term and 48% think there should be an election held now.
Opinions closely follow voting preference – 82% of Labor voters and 80% of Greens voters think the Government should run its full term while 84% of Liberal/National voters want an election now.
Best Leader for GFC
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | - |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,865
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 49% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 31% | 31% | 32% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8 |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 56% | 57% | 56% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Government Decisions and Policies
Q. Thinking about what the Labor Government has done over the last few years, do you approve or disapprove of the following Government actions?
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Approve | Disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Don’t know | |
| Increased funding of health services | 89% | 5% | 42% | 47% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Increasing the age pension | 78% | 14% | 34% | 44% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
| Increasing superannuation to 12% | 75% | 13% | 28% | 47% | 9% | 4% | 12% |
| Managing the economy to keep unemployment and interest rates low | 70% | 21% | 21% | 49% | 12% | 9% | 10% |
| Spending on new school buildings | 68% | 24% | 19% | 49% | 15% | 9% | 8% |
| Introducing a national disability insurance scheme | 63% | 13% | 18% | 45% | 9% | 4% | 24% |
| Stimulus spending to tackle the GFC | 61% | 28% | 21% | 40% | 15% | 13% | 11% |
| Paid parental leave | 60% | 30% | 19% | 41% | 17% | 13% | 10% |
| Introducing a tax on large profits of mining companies | 58% | 29% | 27% | 31% | 16% | 13% | 13% |
| Building the NBN (National Broadband Network) | 54% | 34% | 19% | 35% | 17% | 17% | 12% |
| Stopping live cattle exports until welfare concerns were addressed | 53% | 34% | 24% | 29% | 17% | 17% | 12% |
| Abolished WorkChoices | 51% | 33% | 23% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 16% |
| Sending asylum seekers to Malaysia | 39% | 45% | 17% | 22% | 20% | 25% | 16% |
| Introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change | 33% | 53% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 39% | 14% |
Government decisions and policies with highest approval were increased funding of health services (89% approve), increasing the age pension (78%) and increasing superannuation to 12% (75%).
Only two of the actions listed received less than majority approval – sending asylum seekers to Malaysia was 39% approve/45% disapprove and introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change was 33% approve/53% disapprove.
Labor voters showed majority approval of all decisions and policies, Greens voters showed majority approval for all except sending asylum seekers to Malaysia (21% approve/63% disapprove).
Liberal/National voters approved of half the items listed – increased funding of health services (89% approve), increasing the age pension (79%), increasing superannuation to 12% (71%), managing the economy to keep unemployment and interest rates low (54%), spending on new school buildings (54%), introducing a national disability insurance scheme (60%) and paid parental leave (52%).
Opposition Leader’s proposal on Carbon Tax
Q. Do you think the Opposition Leader’s proposal to ditch the carbon tax but keep the personal tax cuts will -
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Help Australia’s economy | 44% | 19% | 73% | 11% |
| Hurt Australia’s economy | 30% | 58% | 8% | 67% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 24% | 19% | 22% |
44% think Tony Abbott’s proposal to ditch the carbon tax but keep the tax cuts will help Australia’s economy and 30% think it will hurt the economy. Opinions were closely associated with voting intention – 73% of Liberal/National voters think it will help the economy while 58% of Labor voters and 67% of Greens voters think it will hurt the economy.
Those on higher incomes are more likely to think it will help the economy – 50% of those on $1,600+pw compared to only 39% of those earning less than $1,000pw.
Tony Abbott’s Support for Rallies
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Tony Abbott giving his support to these rallies?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 38% | 14% | 68% | 8% |
| Total disapprove | 36% | 65% | 9% | 75% |
| Strongly approve | 18% | 3% | 37% | 1% |
| Approve | 20% | 11% | 31% | 7% |
| Disapprove | 15% | 25% | 8% | 14% |
| Strongly disapprove | 21% | 40% | 1% | 61% |
| No opinion | 26% | 21% | 22% | 18% |
38% approve and 36% disapprove of Tony Abbott giving his support to the Canberra rallies. Views are closely associated with voting intention.
Groups most likely to approve were aged 65+ (54%) and full-time workers (45%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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