Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,924 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 22/4/13 |
2 weeks ago 6/5/13 |
Last week 13/5/13 |
This week 20/5/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
33% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Liberal Party and WorkChoices
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
|
31 May 10 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
18
|
Total 20 May |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Total likely |
58% |
56% |
51% |
53% |
51% |
48% |
51% |
78% |
28% |
84% |
50% |
47% |
| Total unlikely |
21% |
24% |
27% |
22% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
9% |
48% |
7% |
29% |
25% |
| Very likely |
28% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
25% |
26% |
49% |
5% |
57% |
25% |
19% |
| Quite likely |
30% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
28% |
23% |
25% |
29% |
23% |
27% |
25% |
28% |
| Not very likely |
18% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
5% |
29% |
7% |
18% |
14% |
| Not at all likely |
3% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
4% |
19% |
- |
11% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
20% |
22% |
26% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
12% |
24% |
9% |
22% |
28% |
Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in March. 51% (up 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (down 1%) think it is unlikely.
78% (up 11%) of Labor voters and 84% (up 17%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters split 28% likely (down 3%) to 48% unlikely (up 4%).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,945 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 15/4/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/4/13 |
Last week 6/5/13 |
This week 13/5/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
33% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,905 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 25/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/4/13 |
Last week 15/4/13 |
This week 22/4/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,896 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 11/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 25/2/13 |
Last week 2/4/13 |
This week 8/4/13 |
| Liberal |
45% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
|
| National |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
33% |
31% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,797 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 25/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 11/2/13 |
Last week 18/3/13 |
This week 25/3/13 |
| Liberal |
46% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
55% |
54% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,874 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 4/2/13 |
Last week 11/3/13 |
This week 18/3/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
32% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
55% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Liberal Party and WorkChoices
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
|
31 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
Total |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Total likely |
58% |
56% |
51% |
53% |
51% |
48% |
67% |
31% |
67% |
48% |
49% |
| Total unlikely |
21% |
24% |
27% |
22% |
25% |
28% |
17% |
44% |
10% |
31% |
20% |
| Very likely |
28% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
25% |
45% |
7% |
42% |
27% |
22% |
| Quite likely |
30% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
28% |
23% |
22% |
24% |
25% |
21% |
27% |
| Not very likely |
18% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
19% |
12% |
31% |
8% |
22% |
12% |
| Not at all likely |
3% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
5% |
13% |
2% |
9% |
8% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
20% |
22% |
26% |
24% |
25% |
15% |
26% |
23% |
21% |
31% |
Respondents were a little less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in September. 48% (down 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 28% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.
67% (down 7%) of Labor voters and 67% (down 1%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 31% likely (down 2%) to 44% unlikely (up 1%).
Concern about Liberals bringing back WorkChoices
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
|
31 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
Total 18 |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Very concerned |
28% |
29% |
26% |
30% |
27% |
27% |
48% |
6% |
48% |
30% |
29% |
| Quite concerned |
17% |
19% |
15% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
24% |
10% |
25% |
17% |
23% |
| A little concerned |
20% |
16% |
20% |
15% |
19% |
17% |
14% |
21% |
8% |
17% |
17% |
| Not concerned |
24% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
4% |
50% |
3% |
23% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
11% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
10% |
12% |
16% |
13% |
17% |
Concern about the re-introduction of WorkChoices has not changed significantly since this question was last asked in September. 43% (up 1%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 42% (down 3%) were only a little or not concerned.
72% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters would be concerned. 71% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 16% concerned. 47% of full-time workers and 52% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.
52% of those aged 45-54 said they would be very/quite concerned.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,894 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 5/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
Last week 25/2/13 |
This week 4/3/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Liberals ready to govern
Q. Do you think the Liberal Party led by Tony Abbott has shown it has the policies and leadership to be ready to govern?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Liberals are ready to govern |
36% |
6% |
72% |
4% |
| Liberals are not ready to govern |
45% |
82% |
12% |
79% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
13% |
16% |
17% |
36% think that the Liberal Party has the policies and leadership to be ready to govern and 45% think they do not. 72% of Liberal/National voters think they are ready to govern.
41% of men and 32% of women think they are ready to govern.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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