Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,802 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 5/8/14

2 weeks ago

19/8/14

Last week

26/8/14

This week

2/9/14

Liberal

 

39%

37%

36%

36%

National

2%

3%

3%

4%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

41%

40%

39%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

38%

37%

38%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

6%

6%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 5/8/14

2 weeks ago

19/8/14

Last week

26/8/14

This week

2/9/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.


 

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 11, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,916 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 13/5/14

2 weeks ago

27/05/14

Last week

3/6/14

This week

11/6/14

Liberal

 

38%

37%

35%

35%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

40%

40%

38%

37%

Labor

33.4%

39%

39%

39%

40%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

6%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

7%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 13/5/14

2 weeks ago

27/05/14

Last week

3/6/14

This week

11/6/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

47%

46%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

53%

54%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 3, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,936 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 6/5/14

2 weeks ago

20/05/14

Last week

27/5/14

This week

3/6/14

Liberal

 

38%

38%

37%

35%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

40%

40%

40%

38%

Labor

33.4%

38%

40%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

5%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 6/5/14

2 weeks ago

20/05/14

Last week

27/5/14

This week

3/6/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

52%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Best leader of the Liberal Party

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

 

Total

 

Male

Female

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Vote other

29 Jul 13

23 Apr 12

30 May 11

28 Feb 11

27 Sep 10

Tony Abbott

18%

21%

15%

3%

43%

2%

13%

17%

23%

22%

24%

26%

Malcolm Turnbull

31%

33%

28%

37%

27%

35%

28%

37%

30%

25%

18%

20%

Joe Hockey

6%

7%

5%

2%

11%

5%

5%

10%

14%

17%

16%

15%

Julie Bishop

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

5%

3%

5%

3%

4%

5%

Christopher Pyne

<1%

<1%

-

<1%

-

-

-

na

na

na

na

na

Scott Morrison

1%

1%

<1%

2%

<1%

-

1%

na

na

na

na

na

Andrew Robb

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

*

1%

1%

1%

na

Someone else

19%

18%

21%

28%

5%

25%

28%

12%

12%

13%

14%

na

Don’t know

21%

16%

27%

24%

10%

30%

21%

19%

16%

19%

22%

33%

31% (down 6% since July last year) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 6% (down 4%) Joe Hockey. Note the previous poll was taken prior to the 2013 election when the Liberal Party were in Opposition.

Among Liberal/National voters, 43% (up 7%) prefer Tony Abbott, 27% (down 8%) Malcolm Turnbull and 11% (down 2%) Joe Hockey.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% (down 6%) of men and 28% (down 8%) of women, Tony Abbott by 21% (no change) of men and 15% (up 1%) of women.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 27, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,895 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 29/4/14

2 weeks ago

13/05/14

Last week

20/5/14

This week

27/05/14

Liberal

 

38%

38%

38%

37%

National

2%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

39%

40%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

9%

8%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

6%

8%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 29/4/14

2 weeks ago

13/05/14

Last week

20/5/14

This week

27/05/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 20, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,855 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 22/4/14

2 weeks ago

06/05/14

Last week

12/5/14

This week

19/05/14

Liberal

 

39%

38%

38%

38%

National

2%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

41%

40%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

37%

38%

39%

40%

Greens

8.6%

11%

10%

9%

8%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

5%

5%%

Other/Independent

6.9%

6%

8%

8%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 8/4/14

2 weeks ago

06/05/14

Last week

12/5/14

This week

19/05/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 6, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,929 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 8/4/14

2 weeks ago

22/4/14

Last week

29/4/14

This week

06/05/14

Liberal

 

40%

39%

38%

38%

National

3%

2%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

42%

41%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

37%

38%

38%

Greens

8.6%

9%

11%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

3%

5%

5%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

6%

6%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 8/4/14

2 weeks ago

22/4/14

Last week

29/4/14

This week

06/05/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

49%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

51%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 30, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,837 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 1/4/14

2 weeks ago

15/4/14

Last week

22/4/14

This week

29/4/14

Liberal

 

40%

40%

39%

38%

National

2%

3%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

42%

42%

41%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

37%

37%

38%

Greens

8.6%

9%

10%

11%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

3%

4%

5%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

6%

6%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 1/4/14

2 weeks ago

15/4/14

Last week

22/4/14

This week

29/4/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

50%

49%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

50%

51%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

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