Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,899 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 29/1/13 |
2 weeks ago 11/2/13 |
Last week 18/2/13 |
This week 25/2/13 |
| Liberal |
44% |
45% |
44% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
34% |
35% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
45% |
46% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Party that represents blue-collar workers
Q. Which is the party that best represents the interests of blue-collar workers?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labor |
34% |
67% |
18% |
32% |
| Liberal |
21% |
5% |
39% |
2% |
| Greens |
2% |
1% |
1% |
20% |
| No difference |
15% |
7% |
19% |
16% |
| None of them |
10% |
6% |
10% |
17% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
34% think that the Labor Party best represents the interests of blue-collar workers and 21% think the Liberal Party does.
43% said none, no difference of did not know.
67% of Labor voters nominated the Labor Party and 39% of Liberal/National voters nominated the Liberal Party.
Senate voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Senate? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward for the Senate?
If don’t know –
Q. Well which party are you currently leaning to for the Senate?
|
Total Australia |
NSW |
Queensland |
Victoria |
SA |
WA |
|
| Sample |
3,755 |
1,282 |
744 |
974 |
307 |
352 |
| Labor |
33% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
31% |
31% |
| Liberal/National |
47% |
48% |
44% |
43% |
39% |
55% |
| Greens |
11% |
10% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
| Katter Party |
2% |
1% |
7% |
1% |
1% |
* |
| Others/independents |
8% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
18% |
4% |
* Based on Interviewing conducted across 4 weeks of Essential Report – 24 January-17 February.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,897 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 14/1/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/1/13 |
Last week 5/02/13 |
This week 11/02/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Trust to deal with GFC
Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?
|
15 Aug 11 |
7 May 12 |
Total 29 Jan 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Labor Party |
31% |
25% |
26% |
68% |
2% |
23% |
| The Liberal Party |
40% |
42% |
40% |
4% |
84% |
6% |
| No difference |
20% |
23% |
22% |
18% |
10% |
52% |
| Don’t know |
9% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
4% |
19% |
If there was another GFC, 40% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 26% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a slight shift to the Labor Party from net -17% to net -14% since May last year.
The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups except for low income earners – 35% of those earning under $600pw would trust the Labor Party more and 29% the Liberal Party. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were aged 55+ (52%), full-time workers (45%) and income over $1,600 pw (44%).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,878 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 17/12/12 |
This week 14/01/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
The past year – political parties
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
|
Total good (Dec 10) |
Total bad (Dec 10) |
Total good (Dec 11) |
Total bad (Dec 11) |
Total good (Dec 12) |
Total bad (Dec 12) |
Very good |
Good |
Neither good nor bad |
Bad |
Very bad |
Don’t know |
|
| The Liberal Party |
33% |
27% |
27% |
30% |
19% |
40% |
5% |
14% |
34% |
27% |
13% |
7% |
| The Labor Party |
21% |
47% |
16% |
53% |
15% |
57% |
4% |
11% |
21% |
30% |
27% |
6% |
| The Greens |
42% |
21% |
33% |
29% |
14% |
44% |
2% |
12% |
32% |
23% |
21% |
12% |
| The independents |
na |
na |
na |
na |
13% |
33% |
2% |
11% |
39% |
18% |
15% |
14% |
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|||||
|
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
Total good |
Total bad |
|
| The Liberal Party |
19% |
40% |
9% |
62% |
37% |
19% |
6% |
69% |
| The Labor Party |
15% |
57% |
37% |
35% |
4% |
80% |
23% |
51% |
| The Greens |
14% |
44% |
20% |
31% |
6% |
64% |
48% |
9% |
| The independents |
13% |
33% |
18% |
24% |
9% |
50% |
31% |
17% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a relatively bad year for all political parties. 57% think it has been a bad year for the Labor Party and 40% think it has been a bad year for the Liberal Party.
Among their own voters 48% (down 22%) think it has been a good year for the Greens , 37% (down 8%) the Liberal Party and 37% (up 2%) the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +4% to -30%, Liberals from net -3% to -21% and Labor from net -37% to -42%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,799respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 7/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 19/11/12 |
Last week 26/11/12 |
This week 3/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 24/9/12 |
2 weeks ago 8/10/12 |
Last week 15/10/12 |
This week 22/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 2,100 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 10/09/2012 |
2 weeks ago 24/09/2012 |
Last week 01/10/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
35% |
36% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 10/09/2012 |
2 weeks ago 24/09/2012 |
Last week 01/10/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1992 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/08/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/9/2012 |
Last week 17/09/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/08/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/9/2012 |
This week 17/09/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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