Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,802 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 5/8/14

2 weeks ago

19/8/14

Last week

26/8/14

This week

2/9/14

Liberal

 

39%

37%

36%

36%

National

2%

3%

3%

4%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

41%

40%

39%

40%

Labor

33.4%

39%

38%

37%

38%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

6%

6%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 5/8/14

2 weeks ago

19/8/14

Last week

26/8/14

This week

2/9/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.


 

Federal politics – voting intention

May 13, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,883 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

15/4/14

2 weeks ago

29/4/14

 

Last week

06/5/14

 

This week

12/5/14

Liberal

 

40%

38%

38%

38%

National

3%

2%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

42%

40%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

37%

38%

38%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

5%

5%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

6%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

15/4/14

2 weeks ago

29/4/14

 

Last week

06/5/14

 

This week

12/5/14

Liberal National

53.5%

50%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

50%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Party attributes comparison – Labor vs Liberal

Aug 19, 2013
 

Labor

Liberal

Difference

Divided

66%

31%

+35

Looks after the interests of working people

53%

36%

+17

Have good policies

46%

38%

+8

Understands the problems facing Australia

50%

48%

+2

Will promise to do anything to win votes

65%

65%

-

Moderate

48%

48%

-

Has a good team of leaders

36%

36%

-

Trustworthy

30%

30%

-

Have a vision for the future

49%

51%

-2

Extreme

34%

39%

-5

Keeps its promises

27%

32%

-5

Out of touch with ordinary people

51%

58%

-7

Clear about what they stand for

38%

45%

-7

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

31%

60%

-29

The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of looking after the interest of working people, being too close to the big corporate and financial interests, having good policies and less out of touch with ordinary people.

The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of being divided and clear about what they stand for.

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 25, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,899 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

29/1/13

2 weeks ago

11/2/13

Last week

18/2/13

This week

25/2/13

Liberal

44%

45%

44%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

47%

49%

Labor

38.0%

35%

34%

35%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

55%

54%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

45%

46%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Party that represents blue-collar workers

Feb 25, 2013

Q. Which is the party that best represents the interests of blue-collar workers? 

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Labor

34%

67%

18%

32%

Liberal

21%

5%

39%

2%

Greens

2%

1%

1%

20%

No difference

15%

7%

19%

16%

None of them

10%

6%

10%

17%

Don’t know

18%

13%

14%

13%

34% think that the Labor Party best represents the interests of blue-collar workers and 21% think the Liberal Party does.

43% said none, no difference of did not know.

67% of Labor voters nominated the Labor Party and 39% of Liberal/National voters nominated the Liberal Party.

Senate voting intention

Feb 20, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Senate? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward for the Senate?

If don’t know –

Q. Well which party are you currently leaning to for the Senate?

 

Total Australia

NSW

Queensland

Victoria

SA

WA

Sample

3,755

1,282

744

974

307

352

Labor

33%

32%

32%

37%

31%

31%

Liberal/National

47%

48%

44%

43%

39%

55%

Greens

11%

10%

10%

12%

11%

10%

Katter Party

2%

1%

7%

1%

1%

*

Others/independents

8%

9%

7%

7%

18%

4%

* Based on Interviewing conducted across 4 weeks of Essential Report – 24 January-17 February.

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 11, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,897 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

14/1/13

2 weeks ago

29/1/13

Last week

5/02/13

This week

11/02/13

Liberal

44%

44%

45%

45%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

35%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

8%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

54%

55%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

46%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Trust to deal with GFC

Jan 29, 2013

Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?

 

15 Aug 11

7 May 12

Total 29 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Labor Party

31%

25%

26%

68%

2%

23%

The Liberal Party

40%

42%

40%

4%

84%

6%

No difference

20%

23%

22%

18%

10%

52%

Don’t know

9%

10%

11%

10%

4%

19%

If there was another GFC, 40% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 26% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a slight shift to the Labor Party from net -17% to net -14% since May last year.

The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups except for low income earners – 35% of those earning under $600pw would trust the Labor Party more and 29% the Liberal Party. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were aged 55+ (52%), full-time workers (45%) and income over $1,600 pw (44%).

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