Best Leader of the Labor Party

Apr 23, 2012

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

 

30 May 2011

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

23%

16%

40%

4%

21%

Kevin Rudd

32%

31%

33%

32%

32%

Wayne Swan

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

Greg Combet

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

Bill Shorten

3%

6%

8%

5%

3%

Someone else

19%

23%

6%

33%

18%

Don’t know

17%

17%

6%

19%

19%

33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents  declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.

Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.

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Best Leader of the Liberal Party

Apr 23, 2012

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

 

27 Sep 2010

28 Feb 2011

30 May 2011

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Tony Abbott

26%

24%

22%

23%

11%

39%

3%

Malcolm Turnbull

20%

18%

25%

30%

37%

26%

53%

Joe Hockey

15%

16%

17%

14%

12%

17%

12%

Julie Bishop

5%

4%

3%

5%

4%

5%

5%

Andrew Robb

na

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

-

Someone else

na

14%

13%

12%

16%

6%

18%

Don’t know

33%

22%

19%

16%

18%

7%

10

30% (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-3%) Joe Hockey.

Among Liberal/National voters, 39% (-1%) prefer Tony Abbott, 26% (+7%) Malcolm Turnbull and 17% (-5%) Joe Hockey.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% of men and 28% of women, Tony Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.

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Labor Leadership issue

Feb 27, 2012

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Kevin Rudd

18%

27%

16%

21%

Julia Gillard

39%

28%

55%

16%

Other people in the Labor Party

23%

23%

21%

25%

The media

10%

16%

4%

25%

Don’t know

10%

7%

4%

12%

39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.

A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

19 Jul 2010 20 Dec 2010 14 Mar

2011

14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec 16 Jan 2012 13 Feb
Total approve 52% 43% 41% 34% 28% 34% 37% 34% 37% 36%
Total disapprove 30% 40% 46% 54% 64% 59% 55% 54% 52% 53%
Strongly approve 11% 10% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6%
Approve 41% 33% 34% 28% 23% 27% 29% 28% 31% 30%
Disapprove 17% 24% 22% 29% 28% 27% 25% 25% 27% 26%
Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 24% 25% 36% 32% 30% 29% 25% 27%
Don’t know 18% 17% 13% 13% 8% 7% 9% 11% 12% 11%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).

By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010 14 Mar

2011

14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec 16 Jan 2012 13 Feb
Total approve 37% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 40% 36% 32% 35% 35%
Total disapprove 37% 47% 39% 47% 48% 50% 51% 52% 53% 51% 53%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6%
Approve 32% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 26% 28% 29%
Disapprove 20% 23% 21% 24% 25% 23% 23% 26% 25% 25% 23%
Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 18% 23% 23% 27% 28% 26% 28% 26% 30%
Don’t know 26% 16% 22% 16% 15% 11% 9% 12% 14% 13% 12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.

67% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.

By gender – men 40% approve/52% disapprove, women 31% approve/54% disapprove.

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Leaders at the Next Election

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard Yes 31% 54% 19% 43%
No 47% 22% 70% 26%
Don’t know 22% 24% 11% 31%
Tony Abbott Yes 47% 37% 67% 34%
No 25% 37% 12% 31%
Don’t know 28% 26% 21% 35%

31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.

47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.

Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.

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2012 Outlook – Politicians

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good

Dec 10

Total bad

Dec10

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 28% 36% 19% 56% 4% 15% 17% 29% 27% 9%
Tony Abbott 29% 27% 24% 38% 6% 18% 29% 24% 14% 10%
Kevin Rudd 21% 30% 30% 25% 5% 25% 35% 17% 8% 10%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 21% 22% 22% 3% 19% 42% 17% 5% 14%
Bob Brown 20% 30% 16% 39% 2% 14% 31% 20% 19% 14%

Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).

45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.

Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).

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Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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