Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 85% | 6% | 68% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 5% | 75% | 9% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 23% |
37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
approval, Essential Report, federal politics, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister
Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 36% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 41% | 45% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 5% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.
Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.
Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.
approval, Bill Shorten, Essential Media, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Greg Combet, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Voting intention, Wayne Swan
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 23% | 51% | 10% | 26% |
| Kevin Rudd | 32% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Wayne Swan | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Greg Combet | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% |
| Bill Shorten | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Someone else | 19% | 5% | 31% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 5% | 18% | 19% |
32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.
EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Foreign Minister, Greens, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 61% | 83% | 47% | 74% |
| Total disapprove | 19% | 5% | 33% | 9% |
| Strongly approve | 17% | 27% | 9% | 25% |
| Approve | 44% | 56% | 38% | 49% |
| Disapprove | 11% | 4% | 18% | 7% |
| Strongly disapprove | 8% | 1% | 15% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 12% | 21% | 18% |
61% approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister and 19% disapprove. 83% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters approve.
Coalition voters are also more likely to approve than disapprove (47% approve/33% disapprove).
Better Prime Minister, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb 2011 | 14 Mar 2011 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 88% | 8% | 73% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 34% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 3% | 70% | 4% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 9% | 22% | 22% | 23% |
44% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from +17% to +11%).
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 42%/37% and women 46%/29%.
ALP, better leader, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Labor Party, PM, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think that Julia Gillard has been a better or a worse leader than Kevin Rudd?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 28% | 47% | 13% | 30% |
| Total worse | 33% | 18% | 48% | 35% |
| A lot better | 7% | 15% | 2% | 3% |
| A little better | 21% | 32% | 11% | 27% |
| No difference | 33% | 32% | 37% | 30% |
| A little worse | 15% | 10% | 17% | 23% |
| A lot worse | 18% | 8% | 31% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
Overall, respondents were split over whether Julia Gillard has been a better or worse leader than Kevin Rudd – 28% thought she had been better, 33% worse and 33% no different.
Labor voters were more likely to think she had been better (47%/18%) while Liberal/National voters though she had been worse (13%/48%). Greens voters were split 30% better/35% worse and 30% no different.
By gender – men split 24% better/37% worse compared to women 31% better/29% worse.
ALP, Approval of Julia Gillard, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Labor voters, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb 2011 | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 48% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 41% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% | 39% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% |
48% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 41% (up 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +15 to +7 over the last 4 weeks.
88% of Labor voters approve and 8% disapprove.
By gender – men 45% approve/45% disapprove, women 51% approve/36% disapprove.
2011, 2011 outlook, Bob Brown, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, politicians, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).