Reasons Government is unpopular
Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Voters don’t trust the Prime Minister |
28% |
27% |
19% |
35% |
31% |
| The Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly |
na |
19% |
15% |
23% |
23% |
| The economy is doing well for other reasons, like China and the mining boom, not because of the government |
15% |
13% |
9% |
19% |
11% |
| Voters would prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister |
na |
9% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
| Voters aren’t benefitting from the strong economy. |
12% |
9% |
10% |
5% |
12% |
| The carbon tax has increased (will increase) the cost of living |
17% |
7% |
6% |
9% |
- |
| Some other reason |
8% |
12% |
21% |
3% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
5% |
7% |
2% |
5% |
* Based on those who agree the economy is good.
Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (27%) and the Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly (19%).
Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue.
Since May last year, those blaming the impact of the carbon tax has declined from 17% to 7%.
Trust in People and Organisations
Q. How much trust do you have that the following people or organisations can be relied on to act in the community’s interest?
|
|
Total a lot/some trust |
Total little/no trust |
A lot of trust |
Some trust |
A little trust |
No trust |
Don’t know |
Net trust |
| Kevin Rudd |
37% |
56% |
14% |
23% |
26% |
30% |
7% |
-19 |
| Malcolm Turnbull |
33% |
54% |
8% |
25% |
29% |
25% |
14% |
-21 |
| Tony Abbott |
29% |
63% |
10% |
19% |
20% |
43% |
7% |
-34 |
| Julia Gillard |
26% |
67% |
8% |
18% |
22% |
45% |
6% |
-41 |
| Mining magnates like Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart |
14% |
73% |
3% |
11% |
23% |
50% |
13% |
-59 |
| Australian companies |
46% |
47% |
8% |
38% |
35% |
12% |
7% |
-1 |
| Banks |
17% |
66% |
2% |
15% |
32% |
44% |
7% |
-49 |
| Foreign companies |
8% |
81% |
1% |
7% |
24% |
57% |
10% |
-73 |
There was a substantial lack of trust in all people and organisations tested with the exception of Australian companies – which split 46% a lot/some trust and 47% little/no trust.
For both the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, the current leaders were less trusted than the previous leaders. However, all political leaders were more trusted than mining magnates like Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart.
Among Labor voters, 58% had a lot/some trust in Julia Gillard and 58% had a lot/some trust in Kevin Rudd. Among Liberal/National voters, 58% had a lot/some trust in Tony Abbott and 44% had a lot/some trust in Malcolm Turnbull.
Reasons Government is Unpopular
Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Voters don’t trust the Prime Minister |
28% |
21% |
35% |
44% |
| The carbon tax will increase the cost of living |
17% |
17% |
19% |
8% |
| The economy is doing well for other reasons, like China and the mining boom, not because of the government |
15% |
13% |
19% |
5% |
| Voters are still angry about the treatment of Kevin Rudd. |
12% |
18% |
6% |
14% |
| Voters aren’t benefiting from the strong economy. |
12% |
10% |
14% |
8% |
| The government looks sleazy because of Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper. |
4% |
5% |
3% |
8% |
| Some other reason |
8% |
12% |
3% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
5% |
1% |
3 |
* Based on those who agree the economy is good.
Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (28%), that the carbon tax will increase the cost of living (17%) and that the economy is doing well for other reasons, not because of the Government (15%).
Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue, while Labor voters were somewhat more likely to nominate anger over the treatment of Kevin Rudd.
Best Leader of the Labor Party
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
|
30 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
16% |
40% |
4% |
21% |
| Kevin Rudd |
32% |
31% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Wayne Swan |
2% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
| Greg Combet |
4% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
| Bill Shorten |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
| Someone else |
19% |
23% |
6% |
33% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
17% |
6% |
19% |
19% |
33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.
Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.
Kevin Rudd’s Future
Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Stay in Parliament and challenge again |
29% |
30% |
28% |
29% |
| Stay in Parliament and not challenge again |
28% |
44% |
17% |
46% |
| Resign from Parliament |
30% |
17% |
44% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
8% |
10% |
5% |
Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.
Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.
Performance during Leadership Challenge
Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?
|
Total good |
Total poor |
Very good |
Good |
Average |
Poor |
Very poor |
Don’t know |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
49% |
10% |
13% |
24% |
17% |
32% |
4% |
| Kevin Rudd |
33% |
35% |
12% |
21% |
27% |
16% |
19% |
4% |
| Labor Party Ministers |
10% |
52% |
2% |
8% |
30% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
| Tony Abbott |
25% |
40% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
18% |
22% |
8% |
| The media |
14% |
43% |
3% |
11% |
35% |
20% |
23% |
6% |
Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.
33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.
However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.
Labor Leadership issue
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Kevin Rudd |
18% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
| Julia Gillard |
39% |
28% |
55% |
16% |
| Other people in the Labor Party |
23% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
| The media |
10% |
16% |
4% |
25% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
7% |
4% |
12% |
39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.
A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.
Australia’s Best Prime Minister
Q. Choosing from the following list, who do you think has been Australia’s best Prime Minister?
| Term of office | Total
19 Jan 2009 |
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | |
| John Curtin | 7 Oct 1941 – 5 Jul 1945 | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Ben Chifley | 13 Jul 1945 – 19 Dec 1949 | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Robert Menzies | 19 Dec 1949 – 26 Jan 1966 | 11% | 11% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 21% |
| Harold Holt | 26 Jan 1966 – 19 Dec 1967 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | 1% | 1% | - |
| John Gorton | 10 Jan 1968 – 10 Mar1971 | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| William McMahon | 10 Mar 1971 – 5 Dec 1972 | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gough Whitlam | 5 Dec 1972 – 11 Nov 1975 | 9% | 9% | 15% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| Malcolm Fraser | 11 Nov 1975 – 11 Mar 1983 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6% | - | 3% | 6% |
| Bob Hawke | 11 Mar 1983 – 20 Dec 1991 | 12% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 12% | 21% | 10% |
| Paul Keating | 20 Dec 1991 – 11 Mar 1996 | 8% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| John Howard | 11 Mar 1996 – 3 Dec 2007 | 28% | 33% | 8% | 61% | 5% | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Kevin Rudd | 3 Dec 2007 – 24 Jun 2010 | 20% | 15% | 21% | 6% | 27% | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| Julia Gillard | 24 Jun 2010 – present | na | 3% | 8% | - | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
Note: Percentages based on those who gave an answer.
33% thought that John Howard has been Australia’s best Prime Minister, 15% chose Kevin Rudd and 15% Bob Hawke.
Among Liberal/National voters, 61% chose John Howard and 18% Robert Menzies. With 23%, Bob Hawke received the highest rating from Labor voters, just ahead of Kevin Rudd on 21% with Gough Whitlam on 15%. Greens voters favoured Kevin Rudd (27%) and Bob Hawke (22%).
While John Howard received similar scores across age groups, the 18-34 group were more likely to favour Kevin Rudd (25%), the 35-54’s Bob Hawke (21%) and the 55+ group Robert Menzies (21%). Compared to the results when this question was asked 3 years ago (when Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister), John Howard (+5%) and Bob Hawke (+3%) have improved their ratings while Kevin Rudd’s has dropped 5%.
2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
Best Leader for GFC
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | - |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 17 June 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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