Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader
Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 44% | 49% |
| National | 4% | 4% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 53% |
| Labor | 28% | 31% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.
Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.
The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.
Attributes to describe the Prime Minister
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 87% | 81% | 75% | 73% | -2% |
| Hard-working | 89% | 82% | 76% | 75% | -1% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 59% | 52% | 42% | -10% |
| Arrogant | 37% | 39% | 44% | 48% | +4% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 35% | 44% | 50% | 60% | +10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 68% | 55% | 52% | 44% | -8% |
| Visionary | 48% | 38% | 30% | 26% | -4% |
| Superficial | 51% | 52% | +1% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 61% | 46% | 46% | 41% | -5% |
| Narrow-minded | 28% | 35% | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 45% | 37% | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Trustworthy | 49% | 42% | 40% | 30% | -10% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (73%) and out of touch with ordinary people (60%).
Major changes since this question was asked in February were an increase of 10% for out of touch (to 60%) and decreases for a capable leader (down 10% to 42%) and trustworthy (down 10% to 30%).
Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 70% | 71% | 64% | 61% | -3% |
| Hard-working | 76% | 78% | 72% | 75% | +3% |
| A capable leader | 47% | 52% | 48% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 59% | 60% | 58% | 60% | +2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 57% | 53% | 54% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 50% | 53% | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Visionary | 32% | 31% | 27% | 27% | - |
| Superficial | 45% | 49% | +4% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 40% | 42% | 41% | 40% | -1% |
| Narrow-minded | 56% | 53% | 51% | 54% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 33% | 32% | 31% | 32% | +1% |
| Trustworthy | 33% | 35% | 34% | 32% | -2% |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (61%) and arrogant (60%).
There have only been minor changes since this question was asked in February.
Comparison of Leader Attributes
| Julia Gillard | Tony Abbott | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 73% | 61% | +12% |
| Hard-working | 75% | 75% | - |
| A capable leader | 42% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 48% | 60% | -12% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 60% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 44% | 48% | -4% |
| Visionary | 26% | 27% | -1% |
| Superficial | 52% | 49% | +3% |
| Good in a crisis | 41% | 40% | +1% |
| Narrow-minded | 46% | 54% | -8% |
| More honest than most politicians | 29% | 32% | -3% |
| Trustworthy | 30% | 32% | -2% |
Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.
Is Australia a Better/Worse Place?
Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| A better place | 13% | 32% | 4% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 11% |
| A worse place | 51% | 17% | 82% | 27% | 57% | 46% | 42% | 53% | 61% |
| A much better place | 3% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| A better place | 10% | 23% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
| A worse place | 32% | 14% | 47% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| A much worse place | 19% | 3% | 35% | 3% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 20% | 29% |
| No change | 29% | 44% | 12% | 46% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.
82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.
The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,921
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 36% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
19 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | |
| Total approve | 41% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 30% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% |
34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.
76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).
By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 84% | 7% | 65% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 5% | 73% | 11% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 11% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).
Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.
Best Leader of the Labor Party
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 23% | 51% | 10% | 26% |
| Kevin Rudd | 32% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Wayne Swan | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Greg Combet | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% |
| Bill Shorten | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Someone else | 19% | 5% | 31% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 5% | 18% | 19% |
32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% |
41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.
86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 91% | 7% | 71% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 34% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 4% | 76% | 2% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 5% | 17% | 27% | 23% |
43% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 1% on last month’s figures (from +9% to +8%).
Men are split 41%/41% and women favour Julia Gillard 45%/29%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
Essential Tags
Recent Comments
- Workers Care About Kids At Risk on Would You Ask Your Grandmother To Live On $35 A Day?
- Morgan on Federal politics – voting intention
- Krusha on Time for Activities
- Jonathan Tasini on We Can’t Eat Austerity
- Clarkejeremy3 on We Can’t Eat Austerity
