Flood Response – Parties
Q. Who do you think has the best approach to funding the damage from the recent floods across Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 36% | 79% | 4% | 55% |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 28% | 3% | 60% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 36% | 19% | 36% | 37% |
Q. Who would you trust most to manage the program of rebuilding infrastructure after the recent floods across Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 36% | 78% | 3% | 63% |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 35% | 5% | 75% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 17% | 22% | 31% |
Overall, respondents tend to favour the approach of Julia Gillard in funding the flood damage – 36% prefer the Labor Party approach, 28% the Liberal party and 36% don’t know.
However, in terms of managing the rebuilding of infrastructure, 36% favour Julia Gillard and the Labor Party and 35% favour Tony Abbott and the Liberal party.
Floods – Leadership
Q. Thinking about the recent floods across Australia, how would you rate each of the following for providing leadership in dealing with the floods?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Average | Poor | Very poor | Don’t know | |
| Prime Minister Julia Gillard | 42% | 23% | 15% | 27% | 28% | 10% | 13% | 7% |
| Opposition leader Tony Abbott | 19% | 32% | 4% | 15% | 36% | 19% | 13% | 13% |
| Queensland Premier Anna Bligh | 77% | 6% | 52% | 25% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| Queensland Premier Anna Bligh (Qld) | 71% | 9% | 48% | 23% | 17% | 2% | 7% | 3% |
| Brisbane Mayor Campbell Newman | 61% | 4% | 28% | 33% | 16% | 2% | 2% | 19% |
| Brisbane Mayor Campbell Newman (Qld) | 75% | 7% | 46% | 29% | 14% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
| Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu | 34% | 8% | 8% | 26% | 26% | 4% | 4% | 32% |
| Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu (Victoria) | 47% | 12% | 10% | 37% | 27% | 6% | 6% | 14% |
| NSW Premier Kristina Keneally | 21% | 23% | 4% | 17% | 28% | 11% | 12% | 29% |
| NSW Premier Kristina Keneally (NSW) | 13% | 40% | 4% | 9% | 30% | 18% | 22% | 18% |
Nationally, 42% think the Prime Minister Julia Gillard provided good leadership and 23% poor – while the Opposition leader Tony Abbott was rated good by 19% and poor by 32%. In Queensland Julia Gillard rated 42% good/26% poor.
Nationally the Queensland Premier Anna Bligh was rated 77% good/6% poor and in Queensland 71% good/9% poor. The Mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman was rated a little lower nationally (61%/4%) but slightly higher in Queensland (75%/7%).
In Victoria, the Premier Ted Bailieu was rated 47% good/12% poor and in NSW, Premier Kristina Keneally was rated 13% good/40% poor
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% |
51% (up 8%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 36% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +3 to +15 over the last 4 weeks.
89% of Labor voters approve and 6% disapprove.
By gender – men 51% approve/37% disapprove, women 50% approve/35% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 45% | 47% | 89% | 10% | 78% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 2% | 70% | 3% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 20% | 19% | 23% |
47% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 32% prefer Tony Abbott – a net increase for Julia Gillard of 4% on last month’s figures (from +11% to +15%).
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 48%/33% and women 47%/31%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% |
43% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 40% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +5 to +3.
85% of Labor voters approve and 7% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/42% disapprove, women 41% approve/37% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 45% | 88% | 8% | 72% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 34% | 3% | 74% | 7% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 18% | 21% | 23% |
45% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% prefer Tony Abbott – no change last month’s figures.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 45%/39% and women 45%/29%.
2011 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).
Wikileaks – Australian Government Response
Q. The Australian Government has condemned the release of the Wikileaks material and the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has called it “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal”. Do you approve or disapprove of the response of the Prime Minister and the Australian Government to the publication of the Wikileaks material?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 32% | 45% | 28% | 17% |
| Total disapprove | 46% | 38% | 54% | 66% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 18% | 8% | 1% |
| Approve | 21% | 27% | 20% | 16% |
| Disapprove | 27% | 24% | 31% | 32% |
| Strongly disapprove | 19% | 14% | 23% | 34% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
46% disapprove of the Australian Government’s response to the publication of the Wikileaks material and 32% approve – 21% have no opinion. A majority of Coalition (54%) and Greens voters (66%) disapproved while Labor voters were more likely to approve (45%/38%).
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 14% | 35% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 9% | 29% | 28% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 4% | 26% | 32% | 25% | 8% | 6% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 1% | 9% | 35% | 30% | 13% | 11% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 36% | 34% | 5% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 69% | 8% | 36% | 43% | 57% | 17% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 35% | 31% | 68% | 6% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 19% | 45% | 44% | 21% | 17% | 54% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 6% | 50% | 15% | 42% | 6% | 50% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 14% | 64% | 8% | 81% | 11% | 73% |
Overall, Julia Gillard (49% good/25% bad) and Bob Brown (38%/21%) are thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Tony Abbott has had a good year (30%/33%).
A majority of their own voters thought Julia Gillard (69%) and Bob Brown (68%) have had a good year but only 44% of Liberal/National voters think Tony Abbott has had a good year. There is a substantial gender difference on the assessment of Tony Abbott – men split 37% good/30% bad and women 23% good/36% bad. Comments »
Party Best at Dealing with Climate Change Issue
Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to understand and deal with the climate change issue?
| Dec 10 | Dec 09 * | |
| Julia Gillard and Labor | 23% | 24% |
| Tony Abbott and the Coalition | 29% | 27% |
| Bob Brown and Greens | 19% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 32% |
* Note : Similar but not identical question asked in 2009.
29% trust Tony Abbott and the Coalition most to understand and deal with the climate change issue, 23% trust Julia Gillard and Labor and 19% trust Bob Brown and the Greens.
These figures are little changed since this question was previously asked in December 2009.
58% of Labor voters trust Labor most, 65% of Coalition voters trust the Liberals and 83% of Greens voters trust the Greens.
Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 31% trust the Greens, 27% Labor and 15% the Liberals.
Of those who believe that climate change is a very important issue, 38% trust the Greens, 31% Labor and 10% the Liberals.
Julia, Blokes and the Bradley Effect
First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010
As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.
Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.
In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.
The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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