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  • Nov, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Julia Gillard 53% 44% 41% 36% 38% 41% 83% 7% 80%
    Tony Abbott 26% 33% 36% 40% 39% 36% 5% 73% 4%
    Don’t know 21% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 12% 20% 17%

    41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from -1% to +5%). This is the best result for Julia Gillard since June.

    Men are evenly split 39%/39% and women favour Julia Gillard 42%/33%.

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  • Oct, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,888  respondents

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
    Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 32%
    Greens 11.8% 12% 10% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 8% 8%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Oct, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,905  respondents

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
    Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 33%
    Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 9% 9% 8%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Oct, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1909  respondents

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 48%
    Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 33% 33%
    Greens 11.8% 10% 12% 11% 10%
    Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 8% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Oct, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1909  respondents

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 46% 46% 46% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 48%
    Labor 38.0% 30% 32% 32% 33%
    Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 12% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 9% 8% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 56% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 44% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Sep, 2011

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    Performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

    Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?

    7 Mar 2011 6 Jun 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable 41% 42% 38% 6% 77% 10%
    Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government 43% 44% 45% 82% 11% 77%
    Don’t know 16% 15% 17% 12% 11% 13%

    The proportion of respondents that believe that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition Leader well is 38%, down four points from when the question was last asked on 6 June 2011.  Coalition voters are far more likely to regard Abbott as performing the role well (77%).

    Forty five per cent (45%) of respondents believe that Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of Government (45%), a result that is fairly consistent with the previous occasions on which the question has been polled.   Labor voters are the most likely to agree with this position (82%), as are Greens voters (77%).

    Respondents aged 65+ are much more likely to regard Abbott as performing well (56%).

    Respondents from Queensland were also somewhat more likely to regard Abbott as doing well (44%).

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  • Sep, 2011

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    Composition of Parliament

    Q. Thinking about the Federal Government, which of the following scenarios would you prefer –

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Green
    One of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate 36% 36% 49% 7%
    One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate 21% 16% 27% 10%
    One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate 16% 22% 4% 63%
    Don’t know 28% 26% 21% 19%

    Most respondents think that ‘one of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate’ is preferable (36%).  Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to prefer this scenario (49%) and Greens voters the least likely to do so (7%).  Male respondents were also more likely to prefer this scenario (40%) than female respondents (32%).

    Respondents then selected ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate’ as their next preferred scenario (21%).  Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard this scenario as preferable (27%).

    The least favoured option amongst respondents is ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate’, with 16% selecting this option.  Greens voters are the most likely to regard this option as the most preferable (63%).

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  • Sep, 2011

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    Lib/Nat majority in the Senate

    Q. If the Liberal and National Parties win the next election, do you think it would be good or bad if they also won a majority in the Senate?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total Good 38% 10% 73% 6%
    Total Bad 31% 63% 3% 72%
    Very good 17% 3% 35% 0%
    Good 21% 7% 38% 6%
    Neither good nor bad 18% 18% 16% 15%
    Bad 12% 23% 3% 18%
    Very bad 19% 40% 0% 54%
    Don’t know 13% 8% 8% 7%

    Most respondents think that having the Liberal and National Parties holding a majority in the Senate is a good outcome (38%), than those that think it is a bad outcome (31%).

    Greens voters are the most likely to regard the outcome as bad (72%), followed by Labor voters (63%).

    Male respondents are more likely to regard this outcome as good (45% total good) compared to female respondents (33% total good).

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