Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 1, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,867 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 4/3/14

2 weeks ago

18/3/14

Last week

25/3/14

This week

1/4/14

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

43%

44%

42%

Labor

33.4%

38%

36%

37%

39%

Greens

8.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

3%

4%

4%

3%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

8%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 4/3/14

2 weeks ago

18/3/14

Last week

25/3/14

This week

1/4/14

Liberal National

53.5%

51%

51%

51%

49%

Labor

46.5%

49%

49%

49%

51%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.


 

Involvement in politics

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Thinking about Federal politics and the election, which of the following have you personally done in the last week?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Seen any TV advertising by political parties

43%

46%

44%

38%

Received printed material from candidates.

27%

26%

27%

35%

Read about Federal politics in a newspaper

41%

43%

43%

39%

Watched Federal politicians on TV

56%

63%

54%

57%

Listened to Federal politicians on the radio

22%

21%

22%

32%

Listened to commentators talking about Federal politics on the radio

30%

32%

29%

34%

Watched commentators talking about Federal politics on the TV

48%

54%

47%

47%

Read anything about Federal politics on the internet

39%

47%

33%

49%

Discussed Federal politics and the election with friends or family

50%

56%

46%

60%

TV was the most common way for respondents to engage with politics over the past week. 56% said they had watched Federal politicians on TV and 48% had watched commentators talking about Federal politics on TV.

Labor voters were more likely to watch politicians (63%) or commentators (54%) on TV and also more likely to use the internet to read about politics (47%).

There were some substantial differences by age group – 30% of respondents aged under 35 read about politics in a newspaper compared to 57% of those aged 55+ and 42% of aged under 35 watched politicians on TV compared to 71% of aged 55+.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 8, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,778 respondent

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

11/6/13

2 weeks ago

24/6/13

Last week

1/7/13

This week

8/7/13

Liberal

 

44%

44%

43%

42%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

46%

46%

Labor

38.0%

36%

34%

36%

38%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

11%

9%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

11/6/13

2 weeks ago

24/6/13

Last week

1/7/13

This week

8/7/13

Liberal National

49.9%

54%

55%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

46%

45%

47%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 29, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,792 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

1/10/12

2 weeks ago

15/10/12

Last week

22/10/12

This week

29/10/12

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

7%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

53%

54%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

47%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,854 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/6/12

2 weeks ago

9/7/12

Last week

16/7/12

This week

23/7/12

Liberal

46%

46%

46%

45%

National

3%

4%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

31%

31%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

43%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 18, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,842 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

21/5/12

2 weeks ago

4/6/12

Last week

12/6/12

This week

18/6/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 28, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,884 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

30/4/12

2 weeks ago

14/5/12

Last week

21/5/12

This week

28/5/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

49%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

30%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

7

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

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Better Prime Minister

Nov 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 53% 44% 41% 36% 38% 41% 83% 7% 80%
Tony Abbott 26% 33% 36% 40% 39% 36% 5% 73% 4%
Don’t know 21% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 12% 20% 17%

41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from -1% to +5%). This is the best result for Julia Gillard since June.

Men are evenly split 39%/39% and women favour Julia Gillard 42%/33%.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 24, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 32%
Greens 11.8% 12% 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 9% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 17, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,905  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 45% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 33% 33% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 9% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 55% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 45% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 10, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1909  respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 33% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 12% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »