Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,904 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 16/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 30/4/12 |
Last week 7/5/12 |
This week 14/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,909 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 10/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
Last week 30/4/12 |
This week 7/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
29% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,910 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 2/4/12 |
Last week 16/4/12 |
This week 23/4/12 |
This week 30/4/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These figures have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,892 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 26/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/4/12 |
Last week 16/4/12 |
This week 22/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
50% |
48% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 26/3/12 |
Last week 2/4/12 |
This week 10/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
34% |
33% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
54% |
55% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
46% |
45% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,904 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 5/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 19/3/12 |
Last week 26/3/12 |
This week 2/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
32% |
34% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
54% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
46% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,923 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/2/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/3/12 |
Last week 19/3/12 |
This week 26/3/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,918 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
45% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
44% |
46% |
47% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,891 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,908 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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