Party trust to handle issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
Difference 17 Jun 13 |
Difference 11 Feb 13 |
Difference 19 Nov 12 |
Difference 18 Jun 12 |
|
| Management of the economy |
28% |
46% |
2% |
24% |
-18 |
-15 |
-14 |
-18 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
37% |
36% |
4% |
23% |
+1 |
+2 |
+5 |
-2 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
32% |
37% |
6% |
26% |
-5 |
-3 |
-3 |
-6 |
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
24% |
34% |
22% |
+10 |
+18 |
+16 |
+17 |
| A fair industrial relations system |
37% |
34% |
5% |
24% |
+3 |
+6 |
+9 |
+6 |
| Political leadership |
23% |
42% |
5% |
30% |
-19 |
-8 |
-12 |
-16 |
| Addressing climate change |
19% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
- |
+5 |
+9 |
+7 |
| Controlling interest rates |
25% |
42% |
2% |
31% |
-17 |
-14 |
-11 |
-18 |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
30% |
37% |
4% |
29% |
-7 |
-3 |
-2 |
-6 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
19% |
33% |
18% |
31% |
-14 |
-6 |
-7 |
-12 |
| Housing affordability |
24% |
36% |
5% |
35% |
-12 |
-6 |
-5 |
-11 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
28% |
39% |
4% |
29% |
-11 |
-6 |
-9 |
-10 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
23% |
41% |
3% |
34% |
-18 |
-13 |
-15 |
-22 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
17% |
39% |
12% |
32% |
-22 |
-17 |
-18 |
-20 |
| Managing population growth |
18% |
37% |
8% |
38% |
-19 |
-12 |
-15 |
-19 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.
There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. Since February, there have been significant shifts to the Liberals on protecting the environment, political leadership, ensuring a quality water supply and managing population growth.
Expectations of a Liberal/National Government
Q. If the Labor Party lost the next election, do you think the following would be better or worse under a Liberal/National Government led by Tony Abbott?
|
A lot better |
A little better |
Stay much the same |
A little worse |
A lot worse |
Don’t use |
NET (Better-Worse) |
|
| Political leadership |
16% |
19% |
27% |
10% |
24% |
4% |
+1 |
| Trust in Government |
13% |
19% |
29% |
12% |
22% |
4% |
-2 |
| Unemployment |
7% |
18% |
39% |
13% |
19% |
5% |
-7 |
| The economy overall |
16% |
22% |
31% |
12% |
16% |
4% |
+10 |
| The cost of living |
6% |
19% |
36% |
14% |
21% |
4% |
-10 |
| Interest rates |
5% |
13% |
48% |
14% |
16% |
5% |
-12 |
| Health services |
6% |
19% |
36% |
16% |
20% |
4% |
-11 |
| Job security |
7% |
17% |
36% |
14% |
22% |
4% |
-12 |
| Workers rights and conditions |
5% |
13% |
37% |
15% |
25% |
5% |
-22 |
| Company profits |
13% |
28% |
37% |
6% |
10% |
6% |
+25 |
| The environment |
5% |
13% |
47% |
11% |
21% |
4% |
-14 |
| Job creation |
8% |
20% |
39% |
13% |
16% |
4% |
-1 |
| Public services |
6% |
15% |
42% |
13% |
20% |
4% |
-12 |
| Benefits for people on Government support – such as pensioners and the unemployed |
5% |
13% |
39% |
16% |
23% |
5% |
-21 |
| Your personal financial situation |
6% |
16% |
42% |
15% |
16% |
4% |
-9 |
Under a Liberal Government, respondents though that the economy overall (+10) and company profits (+25) would be better.
However they were more likely to think that workers rights and conditions (-22), benefits for people on Government support (-21), the environment (-14), interest rates (-12), job security (-12), public services, health services (-11) and the cost of living (-10) would all be worse. 22% think their own financial situation will be better, 31% think it will be worse and 42% much the same.
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 11 Feb 13 |
19 Nov 12 |
30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
62% |
66% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
29% |
35% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
52% |
57% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
| Protecting the environment |
14% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
| A fair industrial relations system |
12% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
na |
| Political leadership |
14% |
15% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
| Addressing climate change |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
| Controlling interest rates |
9% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
40% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
4% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
| Housing affordability |
11% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
21% |
17% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
6% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
6% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
na |
| Managing population growth |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
na |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 52% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 40% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 29% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Since November, there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+8%) and a decline in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children (-6%) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-5%).
The past year – the economy and industries
Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?
|
Total good (Dec 10 |
Total bad (Dec 10) |
Total good (Dec 11) |
Total bad (Dec 11) |
Total good (Dec 12) |
Total bad (Dec 12) |
Very good |
Good |
Neither good nor |
Bad |
Very bad |
Don’t know |
|
| The banks |
69% |
13% |
71% |
8% |
68% |
11% |
30% |
38% |
17% |
8% |
3% |
5% |
| The mining industry |
57% |
14% |
68% |
11% |
53% |
19% |
17% |
36% |
22% |
15% |
4% |
6% |
| Large companies and corporations |
44% |
15% |
40% |
22% |
32% |
31% |
5% |
27% |
32% |
25% |
6% |
6% |
| The Australian economy |
41% |
20% |
33% |
31% |
29% |
37% |
4% |
25% |
32% |
28% |
9% |
3% |
| You and your family |
na |
na |
na |
na |
29% |
36% |
6% |
23% |
34% |
25% |
11% |
2% |
| The media |
30% |
14% |
25% |
27% |
21% |
40% |
5% |
16% |
33% |
29% |
11% |
6% |
| Farming and agriculture |
14% |
50% |
23% |
40% |
20% |
40% |
2% |
18% |
33% |
28% |
12% |
7% |
| Trade unions |
na |
na |
na |
na |
18% |
30% |
4% |
14% |
37% |
22% |
8% |
15% |
| The environment |
14% |
37% |
20% |
33% |
18% |
37% |
3% |
15% |
40% |
26% |
11% |
6% |
| The average Australian |
na |
na |
na |
na |
17% |
45% |
2% |
15% |
36% |
34% |
11% |
3% |
| Small business |
14% |
45% |
10% |
61% |
10% |
62% |
1% |
9% |
24% |
39% |
23% |
5% |
| Australian politics in general |
na |
na |
na |
na |
9% |
61% |
2% |
7% |
26% |
29% |
32% |
4% |
A majority of respondents think it has been a good year for the banks (68%) and the mining industry (53%). They are split over whether it has been a good year for large companies and corporations (32% good/31% bad). However, they are much more likely to think the year has been bad for small business (62%), Australian politics in general (61%), the average Australian (45%), farming and agriculture (40%) and the media (40%).
Compared to last year’s results, respondents considered 2012 a worse year than 2011 for the mining industry (“good” down 15% to 53%), large companies and corporations (“good” down 8% to 32%) and the media (“bad” up 13% to 40%).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
First |
Second |
Third |
Total 19 Nov 12 |
Total 30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
47% |
11% |
9% |
66% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
7% |
16% |
11% |
35% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
15% |
22% |
20% |
57% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
| Protecting the environment |
3% |
6% |
5% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
| A fair industrial relations system |
2% |
3% |
3% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
na |
| Political leadership |
6% |
5% |
4% |
15% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
| Addressing climate change |
2% |
2% |
5% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
| Controlling interest rates |
2% |
5% |
4% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
8% |
11% |
13% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
1% |
2% |
2% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
| Housing affordability |
3% |
6% |
5% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
2% |
5% |
9% |
17% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
* |
1% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
1% |
1% |
3% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
na |
| Managing population growth |
1% |
2% |
4% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
na |
*Not asked
66% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 57% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 35% ensuring a quality education for all children and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since July, there has been an increase in the importance of ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (+10%) and ensuring a quality education for all children (+9%) and a decline in the importance of political leadership (-10%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-9%).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
First |
Second |
Third |
Total 30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
38% |
16% |
10% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
5% |
10% |
11% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
10% |
19% |
18% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
| Protecting the environment |
3% |
4% |
4% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
| A fair industrial relations system |
4% |
3% |
5% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
* |
| Political leadership |
11% |
7% |
7% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
| Addressing climate change |
3% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
| Controlling interest rates |
2% |
2% |
5% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
13% |
15% |
13% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
* |
1% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
| Housing affordability |
3% |
5% |
5% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
4% |
7% |
7% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
1% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
3% |
4% |
3% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
* |
| Managing population growth |
2% |
3% |
3% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
* |
*Not asked
64% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 47% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 41% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since December, there has been an increase in the importance of political leadership (+7%), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+5%) and ensuring a quality education for all children (+4%).
Approval of Marine Reserves
Q. The Federal Government recently announced plans to protect large areas of Australia’s marine environment in a network of marine reserves. Do you approve or disapprove of these plans?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
70% |
79% |
62% |
89% |
| Total disapprove |
13% |
8% |
22% |
1% |
| Strongly approve |
35% |
45% |
23% |
64% |
| Approve |
35% |
34% |
39% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
9% |
6% |
15% |
1% |
| Strongly disapprove |
4% |
2% |
7% |
- |
| Don’t know |
16% |
13% |
16% |
10% |
70% approved of the Federal Government’s plans to protect large areas of Australia’s marine environment in a network of marine reserves and 13% disapproved.
Approval was similar across all demographic groups – no group recorded approval lower than 65%.
Party trust to handle important election issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
Difference 18 Jun 12 |
Difference 5 Dec 11 |
|
| Management of the economy |
26% |
44% |
3% |
27% |
-18 |
-18 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
33% |
35% |
5% |
26% |
-2 |
-2 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
30% |
36% |
7% |
27% |
-6 |
-3 |
| Protecting the environment |
17% |
21% |
38% |
24% |
+17 |
+14 |
| A fair industrial relations system |
36% |
30% |
6% |
28% |
+6 |
+4 |
| Political leadership |
21% |
37% |
7% |
36% |
-16 |
-17 |
| Addressing climate change |
18% |
24% |
31% |
27% |
+7 |
+6 |
| Controlling interest rates |
22% |
40% |
3% |
35% |
-18 |
-18 |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
29% |
35% |
6% |
31% |
-6 |
-3 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
16% |
28% |
23% |
33% |
-12 |
-12 |
| Housing affordability |
22% |
33% |
5% |
39% |
-11 |
-10 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
26% |
36% |
5% |
32% |
-10 |
-9 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
18% |
40% |
4% |
38% |
-22 |
-19 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
16% |
36% |
13% |
36% |
-20 |
-19 |
| Managing population growth |
17% |
36% |
7% |
40% |
-19 |
-17 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
Labor does not have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party on any item measured. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.
There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health systerm and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Overall, there has been very little change in these results since December.
Creating a Climate for Change on Carbon
It’s only months until a price on carbon takes affect so here are some clues from the polling to help Labor though the difficult times ahead.
The Past Year – The Economy and Industries
Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good
(Dec 10 |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The banks | 69% | 13% | 71% | 8% | 35% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| The mining industry | 57% | 14% | 68% | 11% | 34% | 34% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 6% |
| Large companies and corporations | 44% | 15% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 32% | 32% | 18% | 4% | 6% |
| The Australian economy | 41% | 20% | 33% | 31% | 4% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 7% | 3% |
| The media | 30% | 14% | 25% | 27% | 6% | 19% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 10% |
| Farming and agriculture | 14% | 50% | 23% | 40% | 2% | 21% | 30% | 28% | 12% | 7% |
| The environment | 14% | 37% | 20% | 33% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 24% | 9% | 6% |
| Small business | 14% | 45% | 10% | 61% | 1% | 9% | 24% | 42% | 19% | 6% |
A majority of respondents think it has been a good year for the banks (71%) and the mining industry (68%). They are also more likely to think it has been a good year for large companies and corporations (40% good/22% bad) and the economy (33%/31%). However, they are more likely to think the year has been bad for small business (61%), farming and agriculture (40%) and the environment (33%).
In terms of the economy, Labor voters (50% good/18% bad) and Greens voters (47%/15%) were more likely to think it has been a good year – while 45% of Liberal/National voters considered it poor and 23% good.
Compared to last years’ results, respondents considered 2011 a better year than 2010 for the mining industry (up 11% to 68% good), farming and agriculture (up 9% to 23%) and the environment (up 6% to 20%). Perceptions of the economy dropped from a net +21% to +2%.
Carbon Tax
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 18 April | 23 May | 14 June | 18 July | 1 Aug | 19 Sep | 17 Oct | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 66% | 13% | 86% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 44% | 49% | 49% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 26% | 80% | 11% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 28% | 1% | 48% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 38% | 12% | 38% |
| Oppose | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 11% | 22% | 5% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 34% | 29% | 30% | 33% | 32% | 35% | 36% | 36% | 15% | 58% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 2% |
Views on the carbon pricing scheme have changed very little since June and there has been no significant change since the legislation was passed. 38% support the scheme (down 1% since October) and 53% oppose (no change).
The only demographic group to support the scheme were aged under 35’s – 45% support/40% oppose. Among those aged 55+, 37% support and 59% oppose.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 17 June 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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