Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
Last week 22/10/12 |
This week 29/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
Total 13 Aug |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
78% |
4% |
78% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
8% |
77% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
26% |
13% |
18% |
18% |
36% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/33% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,884 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 30/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 14/5/12 |
Last week 21/5/12 |
This week 28/5/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
47% |
46% |
47% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
7 |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
57% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
5 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
87% |
21% |
74% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
7% |
75% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
48% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 42% think an election should be held now.
10% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in March 2012.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
90% |
17% |
80% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
7% |
77% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.
Election of Party Leaders
Q. Do you think party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour or who the members of Parliament believe is the best person to lead their party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The person the voters favour |
56% |
52% |
62% |
40% |
| The person members of Parliament believe best to lead the party |
30% |
35% |
28% |
49% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
A majority of 56% think that party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour and 30% think that the leadership should go to the person the members of Parliament believe is to lead their party.
Liberal/National voters are more likely to think the leader should be the person the voters favour (62%) while Greens voters tended to favour the person members of Parliament believe best (49%).
Older voters (aged 55+) were a little more likely to leave the judgment to the Parliamentarians although still prefer the person the voters favour 53% to 39%.
Preferred System for Electing Party Leaders
Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best way to elect national party leaders?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Australian system where the leader is elected by the Members of Parliament |
36% |
45% |
36% |
45% |
| The US system where registered voters in primaries elect the party’s candidate for President |
31% |
25% |
36% |
23% |
| The UK system where MPs, party members (and in Labour’s case, union members from affiliated unions) all get to vote for the party leader |
11% |
10% |
8% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
19% |
19% |
17% |
36% prefer the Australian system of electing the party leader – 31% prefer the US system and 11% the UK system.
Labor and Greens voters were more likely to prefer the Australian system (45%) and Liberal/National voters the US system (36%).
45% of people aged 55+ and 45% of those on income of $1,600+ pw favoured the Australian system.
Leaders at the Next Election
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | 5 Dec 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 48% | 80% | 19% | 82% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 41% | 12% | 73% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
48% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term through to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is very similar to the results of this question when last asked in early December. Views closely follow voting voting intentions.
Federal Election
Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 32% | 24% | 42% | 26% |
| No | 42% | 55% | 37% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 21% | 21% | 23% |
Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 89% | 20% | 73% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 7% | 74% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 11% |
47% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term trough to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is almost exactly the reverse of the results when this question was previously asked in September when 48% thought an election should be held now and 40% thought the Government should run its full term.
Support for the Government to run its full term has increased among Labor voters (from 82% to 89%) and Liberal/National voters (11% to 20%) but dropped from 80% to 73% for Greens voters.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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