The economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec |
15 Jun 09 |
5 |
28 Jun |
18 Oct |
4 Apr |
4 |
3 Oct |
26 Mar 12 |
7 May |
27 Aug 12 |
Tot |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Gre |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
23% |
22% |
29% |
50% |
21% |
18% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
37% |
22% |
51% |
33% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
8% |
2% |
5% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
25% |
42% |
19% |
13% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
31% |
30% |
28% |
18% |
37% |
25% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
9% |
4% |
14% |
8% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
27% |
27% |
24% |
25% |
42% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
7% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since August. The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 7 points to 29%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 8 points to 37%. This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.
Labor voters are optimistic overall – 50% better/22% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 51% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 21% better.
There was little difference across demographic groups except for older respondents – of those aged 55+, 27% think conditions will get better and 48% worse.
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 Apr 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
7 May 12 |
Total 27 Aug 12 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
23% |
22% |
34% |
18% |
23% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
31% |
57% |
40% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
7% |
2% |
2% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
31% |
30% |
22% |
35% |
32% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
9% |
22% |
8% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
27% |
30% |
23% |
29% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
5% |
2% |
7% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since May. The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined a point to 22% and those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped a point to 45%. 27% think things will stay much the same (up 2 points).
Labor voters were the most optimistic overall – 34% better/31% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 57% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.
Men (28% better/42% worse) were a little more optimistic than women (16% better/47% worse).
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
23% |
39% |
18% |
22% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
46% |
31% |
59% |
30% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
7% |
1% |
1% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
21% |
32% |
17% |
21% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
31% |
27% |
37% |
22% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
4% |
22% |
8% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
28% |
19% |
41% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
8% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since March. The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined 2 points to 23%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months remained at 46%.
Labor voters are optimistic overall – 39% better/31% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 59% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.
There was little difference across demographic groups.
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
42% |
17% |
26% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
29% |
60% |
37% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
37% |
15% |
25% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
25% |
36% |
34% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
4% |
24% |
3% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
24% |
19% |
26% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
4% |
12% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has strengthened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better increasing 9 points to 25%, from 16% in October last year. Those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months has fallen 12 points from 58% to 46%.
Labor voters are optimistic overall – 42% better/29% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 60% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 17% better.
There was little difference across income groups.
The Economy – Heading in the Right/Wrong Direction
Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
| 17 May 10
(Post 2010 budget) |
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Liberal/ National | Vote Greens | |
| The right direction | 51% | 45% | 75% | 27% | 51% |
| The wrong direction | 25% | 29% | 7% | 51% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 25% | 17% | 22% | 33% |
45% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 29% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked just after the 2010 budget, “right direction” has dropped 6% and “wrong direction” increased 4%.
75% of Labor voters, 27% of Liberal/National voters and 51% of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction.
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec 08 | 15 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | |
| Total better | 21% | 43% | 66% | 53% | 54% | 33% | 40% |
| Total worse | 61% | 37% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 30% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 6% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 38% | 58% | 44% | 45% | 28% | 34% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 28% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 20% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 17% | 15% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 24% |
| No opinion | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
40% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 30% think they will get worse – a net improvement of 8% since this question was last asked in June.
Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 50% think conditions will get better and 20% worse.
54% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 15% worse while 32% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 42% worse. Comments »
Personal financial situation
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | |
| Total better | 40% | 29% | 33% |
| Total worse | 23% | 31% | 29% |
| Get a lot better | 8% | 5% | 6% |
| Get a little better | 32% | 24% | 27% |
| Get a little worse | 17% | 21% | 21% |
| Get a lot worse | 6% | 10% | 8% |
| Stay much the same | 33% | 37% | 32% |
| No opinion | 4% | 4% | 5% |
33% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 29% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.
This is a little more optimistic than the June result – an increase from net -2% to +4%.
Among full-time workers 41% think their situation will get better and 27% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 27% better/32% worse/36% much the same. Comments »
Job security
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 16 Feb 09 | 27 Apr 09 | 8 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | |
| Total concerned | 62% | 67% | 52% | 49% | 45% | 39% | 43% | 40% |
| Very concerned | 22% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 11% |
| Somewhat concerned | 40% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 29% |
| Not at all concerned | 29% | 23% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 42% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 10% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% |
40% were concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so and 42% were not at all concerned – a net positive movement of 7% since the last survey in June.
Full-time workers (40% concerned/48% not concerned) were more optimistic than part-time workers (53% concerened/37% not concerned). Comments »
Economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec 08 | 23 Feb 09 | 18 May 09 | 15 Jun 09 | 6 Jul 09 | 21 Aug 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | |
| Total better | 21% | 19% | 25% | 43% | 50% | 55% | 66% | 53% |
| Total worse | 61% | 65% | 56% | 37% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 19% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 17% | 23% | 38% | 43% | 46% | 58% | 44% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 42% | 37% | 28% | 23% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 5% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 12% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 24% |
| No opinion | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
Just over half (53%) of those surveyed think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get better, 19% think they will get worse, and 24% think conditions will get much the same.
The most significant differences since we last asked this question in October 2009 are in terms of a decrease in the number of people that think conditions will get better (-13%), and an increase in the number that think economic conditions will stay the same (+9%).
Males were more likely than females to think economic conditions will get better over the next 12 months (59% v 47%).
Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think conditions will get better (65% v 47%). Coalition voters were more likely to think conditions will get worse (28%).
People aged 18 – 24 were more likely than those aged 55 years and over to think that economic conditions will improve over the next 12 months (61% v 52%). Comments »
Job security
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 16 Feb 09 | 27 Apr 09 | 8 Jun 09 | 6 Jul 09 | 31 Aug 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | |
| Total concerned | 62% | 67% | 52% | 56% | 53% | 49% | 45% |
| Very concerned | 22% | 24% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| Somewhat concerned | 40% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 35% | 35% | 33% |
| Not at all concerned | 29% | 23% | 35% | 32% | 37% | 40% | 40% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 8% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 5% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 8% |
45% of people are very/somewhat concerned that they or a member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so, 40% are not concerned at all. This is the lowest level of concern regarding job loss that has been recorded in the Essential Report since we began tracking this question in February 2009.
Females were more likely than males to be very/somewhat concerned over job loss (47% v 41%).
People in part-time work were more likely than those in full-time work to be concerned over job loss (55% v 45%).
Coalition voters were more likely than Labor voters to be very/somewhat concerned (52% v 43%). Comments »
Interest Rate Rises and the Economy
Q. Do you think the recent increase in official interest rates indicates that Australia’s economy is getting better or getting worse?
| % | |
| Economy is getting better | 53% |
| Economy is getting worse | 12% |
| Neither | 28% |
| Don’t know | 7% |
Just over half (53%) think the recent increase in official interest rates indicates that Australia’s economy is getting better, 12% think it is an indication that the economy is getting worse and 28% think it is not a sign that the economy is getting better or worse.
Labor voters were more likely to think the interest rate rise is a sign that the economy is getting better (61%), while Coalition voters were a little more likely than the average to think that it is a sign that the economy is getting worse (18%). 48% of Coalition voters think that the recent interest rate increase is a sign that the economy is getting better.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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