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  • Oct, 2013

    , ,

    Carbon pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the previous Labor Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    14 June

    19 Sep

    21 Nov

    25 Jun 2012

    2 Oct

    29 Jan 2013

    27 May

     

    Total

    1 Oct

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    37%

    43%

    39%

    65%

    14%

    86%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    50%

    43%

    47%

    21%

    76%

    9%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    11%

    15%

    15%

    28%

    2%

    47%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    24%

    37%

    12%

    39%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    22%

    20%

    23%

    14%

    35%

    7%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    28%

    23%

    24%

    7%

    41%

    2%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    15%

    15%

    10%

    4%

    Support for carbon pricing has dropped since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down four points to 39% and opposition up four points to 47%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (65%) and Greens voters (86%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 76% of Coalition voters oppose it.

    Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 47% support and 34% oppose while 64% of those aged 55+ oppose and 29% support.

  • Jul, 2013

    , , ,

    Carbon pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7
    Mar 11

    14 June

    19 Sep

    21 Nov

    25 Jun 12

    2
    Oct

    29 Jan 13

    27 May

     

    Total 23 Jul

     

    Vote
    ALP

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    37%

    43%

    37%

    55%

    17%

    75%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    50%

    43%

    48%

    30%

    73%

    9%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    11%

    15%

    13%

    21%

    3%

    35%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    24%

    34%

    14%

    40%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    22%

    20%

    22%

    20%

    26%

    8%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    28%

    23%

    26%

    10%

    47%

    1%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    15%

    15%

    10%

    16%

    Support for carbon pricing has declined significantly since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down six points to 37% and opposition up five points to 48%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (55%) and Greens voters (75%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 73% of Coalition voters oppose it.

  • Jan, 2013

    , , ,

    Carbon pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    14 June 2011

    19 Sep 2011

    21 Nov 2011

    25 Jun 2012

    2 Oct 12

    Total

    29 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    37%

    60%

    19%

    61%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    50%

    24%

    75%

    30%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    11%

    21%

    3%

    23%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    26%

    39%

    16%

    38%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    22%

    16%

    27%

    19%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    28%

    8%

    48%

    11%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    16%

    7%

    9%

    Support for carbon pricing has not changed significantly since the last time the question was polled in October 2012. Support is down a point to 37% and opposition up 2 points to 50%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (60%) and Greens voters (61%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 75% of Coalition voters oppose it.

    Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 44% support and 39% oppose while 60% of those aged 55+ oppose and 35% support.

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , , ,

    Repealing major Government decisions

    Q. If the Liberal and National parties win the next election, should they repeal any of these Government decisions?

     

    Yes, should repeal

    No, should not repeal

    Don’t know

    The carbon pricing scheme

    45%

    37%

    18%

    NBN (National Broadband Network)

    18%

    63%

    20%

    The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT)

    24%

    50%

    28%

    A greater portion of respondents believe that a Coalition government should repeal the carbon pricing scheme (45%) that those that believe they should not (37%).

    A majority of respondents otherwise believe that a Coalition government should not repeal the NBN (63%), and a greater portion believe it should not repeal the MRRT (50%) compared to those that believe it should (24%).

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Lib/Nat voters are also more likely to believe a Coalition government should repeal the carbon pricing scheme (72%), the NBN (30%) and the MRRT (44%).

    Broken down by gender, male respondents (50%) are more likely than female respondents (39%) to believe that a Coalition government should repeal the carbon tax.  Conversely, male respondents were more likely to believe that a Coalition government should not repeal the NBN (66%) compared to female respondents (60%) and also more likely to believe that they should not repeal the MRRT (54%) compared with female respondents (47%).

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , ,

    Likelihood of repealing major Government decisions

    Q. If the Liberal and National parties win the next election, do you think they will repeal any of these Government decisions?

     

    Yes, probably will repeal

    No, probably won’t repeal

    Don’t know

    The carbon pricing scheme

    44%

    32%

    24%

    NBN (National Broadband Network)

    18%

    54%

    28%

    The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT)

    33%

    35%

    32%

    A greater portion of respondents believe that a Coalition government will repeal the carbon tax (44%) than those that believe they will not repeal it (32%).

    The majority of respondents believe that a Coalition government probably won’t repeal the NBN (54%).

    Respondents are evenly split on whether a Coalition government will repeal the MRRT, with 33% believing they will repeal it and 35% believing they probably won’t.

  • Jun, 2012

    , , , , , , , , ,

    Tries Lies: More Carbon Porkies to Come

    First published on The Drum 26 June 2012

    The ‘lie’ at the heart of Labor’s carbon tax has assumed legendary status. Never mind that the realities of the supposed falsehood are highly contestable – Labor’s carbon pricing scheme is arguably not a tax at all – “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead” has become the iconic political lie of our times.

    Its ruthlessly successful exploitation by the Abbott Opposition has spawned a political craze in exposing opponents’ lies, in the hope of replicating this highly successful case study in trust-related brand damage.

    But what about the Opposition’s penchant for stretching the truth on impacts of the carbon tax?

    George Brandis’s assertion the carbon tax was responsible for 1900 job cuts at Fairfax was a cracker, but only a natural extension of years of dubious claims the carbon tax would wipe towns off the map, spark mass shut-downs of industry and send families to the wall under crippling power prices.

    With not much else to look forward to, Labor hopes the sun rising on July 1 – towns and families intact – will expose the Opposition’s spurious rhetoric about the carbon tax. Who is calling us liars now, you liars?

    The collapse in trust in politics as we’ve reported on before, is a defining feature of our current political culture, driven largely by the kind of negative politics that have characterised the carbon debate.

    In this environment, Labor has been unable to win back support for its carbon pricing scheme, with support levels on the eve of its introduction at the same low level they were towards the start of last year.

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    23 May

    1 Aug

    21 Nov

    Total

    25 Jun 2012

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    41%

    39%

    38%

    35%

    67%

    13%

    74%

    Total oppose

    48%

    44%

    51%

    53%

    54%

    21%

    81%

    21%

    Strongly support

    9%

    14%

    15%

    14%

    14%

    28%

    4%

    38%

    Support

    26%

    27%

    24%

    24%

    21%

    39%

    9%

    36%

    Oppose

    19%

    15%

    19%

    17%

    19%

    12%

    24%

    13%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    29%

    32%

    36%

    35%

    9%

    57%

    8%

    Don’t know

    18%

    15%

    10%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    7%

    6%

     

    If there’s a positive for Labor there, it’s that it has been able to win the support of its base on this issue, with two-thirds of Labor voters (admittedly a small pool – link to table) supporting the policy.

    But despite Labor’s focus on selling the compensation elements of the carbon pricing reform, the public has bought the cost-of-living scare, with 71% believing their cost of living will increase moderately or a lot. A further 20% thought there would be a small increase and just 2% thought there would be no impact. Power, petrol, groceries and fruit and veg – people are expecting the introduction of the carbon tax to be a disaster for their hip pockets.

    Q. And what impact do you expect the carbon tax to have on each of the following?

     

     

    Increase a lot

    Increase a little

    Stay much the same

    Decrease a little

    Decrease a lot

    Don’t know

    Energy prices

    67%

    26%

    4%

    *

    3%

    Fuel prices

    53%

    31%

    11%

    1%

    *

    4%

    Grocery prices

    41%

    41%

    14%

    1%

    4%

    Fresh fruit and vegetable prices

    39%

    39%

    18%

    *

    *

    4%

    Unemployment

    31%

    27%

    32%

    2%

    1%

    8%

    Interest rates

    22%

    18%

    38%

    8%

    1%

    13%

    And herein lies the risk for Tony Abbott.

    With the happy bonus that most of us aren’t really too sure what the carbon tax actually is, we can expect plenty more Brandis-style water-muddying as the carbon tax is blamed for job losses, power price rises, divorces and bad haircuts caused by completely unrelated factors.

    But what if the Opposition can’t deliver carbon tax Armageddon? What if people accept that any moderate increases in prices have been offset by the one-off ‘cashforyou’ payments and associated support packages? Or, and this may be stretching it, what if the media starts questioning come of the tenuous links between price rises and carbon that the Opposition attempts to exploit?

    If the world doesn’t end on Sunday, will people shift their opinion of the Carbon Tax or, worse still for Abbott, start to wonder whether they have been played for fools? Already the rhetoric is shifting from ‘death strike’ to ‘python’s grip’ but is this sustainable as a basis for the daily high-vis vest photo opp that has become the Oppostion’s modus operandi.

    Another potential porky lies in the Opposition Leader’s promise to repeal the carbon tax.Abbott has pledged ‘in blood’ there would be no carbon tax under the government he leads.

    Currently, we’re fairly evenly split on whether a pledge in blood is actually a core promise, with a slight majority believing he’ll go through with it.

    Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total likely

    44%

    28%

    64%

    42%

    Total unlikely

    40%

    62%

    22%

    41%

    Don’t know

    17%

    11%

    14%

    17%

     

    But what if he can’t get the numbers through the Senate? What if he is forced to negotiate and, God forbid compromise, with those holding the balance of power? Will this be a case of a politician dealing with the hand they are dealt or just another example that all politicians lie?

    While it’s easy to dismiss the dealing in truth and lies as business as usual politics, but in turning it into a Weapon of Mass Destruction it will be interesting to see if the Opposition leader has not set set his own future government onto a path of Mutually Assured Destruction.

     

     

  • Jun, 2012

    , , , , ,

    Carbon Tax

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    18 Apr

    23 May

    14 Jun

    18 Jul

    1 Aug

    19 Sep

    17 Oct

    21 Nov

    Total

    25 Jun 12

    Vote ALP

    Vote Lib

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    39%

    41%

    38%

    39%

    39%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    35%

    67%

    13%

    74%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    44%

    49%

    49%

    51%

    52%

    53%

    53%

    54%

    21%

    81%

    21%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    13%

    15%

    15%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    28%

    4%

    38%

    Support

    26%

    26%

    27%

    25%

    24%

    24%

    23%

    25%

    24%

    21%

    39%

    9%

    36%

    Oppose

    19%

    15%

    15%

    19%

    16%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    12%

    24%

    13%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    34%

    29%

    30%

    33%

    32%

    35%

    36%

    36%

    35%

    9%

    57%

    8%

    Don’t know

    18%

    12%

    15%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    12%

    9%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    7%

    6%

    Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).

    All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.

  • Oct, 2011

    , , , , , , , ,

    Carbon Tax

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

    7 March 18 April 23 May 14 June 18 July 1 Aug 19 Sep 17 Oct Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 35% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 37% 39% 66% 15% 80%
    Total oppose 48% 49% 44% 49% 49% 51% 52% 53% 24% 81% 16%
    Strongly support 9% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 14% 25% 2% 45%
    Support 26% 26% 27% 25% 24% 24% 23% 25% 41% 13% 35%
    Oppose 19% 15% 15% 19% 16% 19% 17% 17% 14% 19% 10%
    Strongly oppose 29% 34% 29% 30% 33% 32% 35% 36% 10% 62% 6%
    Don’t know 18% 12% 15% 13% 12% 10% 12% 9% 10% 4% 3%

    Views on the carbon pricing scheme have changed very little since June. 39% support the scheme (up 2% since September) and 53% oppose (up 1%).

    The only demographic group to support the scheme were aged under 35’s – 46% support/43% oppose. Among those aged 55+, 33% support and 63% oppose.

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