Budget surplus
Q. In order to keep to their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Increase taxes for big corporations |
59% |
70% |
51% |
65% |
|
| Reduce tax breaks for high income earners |
46% |
51% |
41% |
62% |
|
| Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments |
43% |
42% |
48% |
52% |
|
| Reduce defence spending |
38% |
40% |
33% |
70% |
|
| Postpone building the NBN |
27% |
18% |
42% |
14% |
|
| Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits |
26% |
20% |
36% |
17% |
|
| Postpone other infrastructure projects like new roads and highways |
12% |
12% |
13% |
12% |
Measures most supported by respondents in order to keep the commitment to the 2012-13 budget surplus are increasing taxes for big corporations (59%), reducing tax breaks for high income earners (46%) and cutting ‘middle class welfare’ (43%).
Looking at the results by voting intention, the majority of Lib/Nat voters support increasing taxes for big corporations (51%). Labor voters are most in favour of increasing taxes for big corporations (70%) and reducing tax breaks for high income earners (51%). Greens voters are most inclined to support reducing defence spending (70%) and increasing taxes for big corporations (65%).
Will the Budget solve our two speed economy?
Paul Bastian welcomes the tax on mining profits and the Government’s continued commitment to manufacturing.
It’s no secret that the mining boom has pushed the dollar sky high and caused problems for manufacturers. But Paul Bastian believes the Government is right to be investing in the future and promoting maths and science.
He tells 3Q that innovation in manufacturing is the key to the future and it must be protected at all costs.
Interest in Federal Budget
Q. Thinking about the Federal Budget – how much attention did you pay to this week’s Federal Budget?
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Total a lot/some |
66% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
| Total a little/none |
31% |
44% |
45% |
43% |
| A lot |
29% |
18% |
19% |
20% |
| Some |
37% |
35% |
33% |
34% |
| A little |
25% |
29% |
31% |
31% |
| None |
6% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
| Can’t say |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
Just over half (54%) of respondents said they paid a lot or some attention to the Federal Budget. This is much the same as the corresponding figure of 52% for last year’s budget.
Those most interested were Liberal/National voters (61%), Labor voters (59%) and people aged 55+ (64%). Only 42% of respondents aged 18-34 paid a lot or some attention to the budget.
Impact of Budget
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for you personally?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for average working people?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for Australian businesses?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for the Australian economy overall?
|
You personally |
Working people |
Australian businesses |
Economy overall |
|||||||
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2012 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Total good |
22% |
11% |
17% |
31% |
27% |
20% |
10% |
36% |
27% |
26% |
| Total bad |
26% |
29% |
26% |
24% |
32% |
25% |
43% |
28% |
29% |
32% |
| Very good |
3% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
| Good |
19% |
9% |
15% |
27% |
24% |
17% |
9% |
30% |
23% |
22% |
| Neither good nor bad |
33% |
44% |
44% |
33% |
9% |
31% |
29% |
10% |
25% |
25% |
| Bad |
18% |
21% |
17% |
19% |
22% |
19% |
28% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
| Very bad |
8% |
8% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
6% |
15% |
10% |
8% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
12% |
12% |
31% |
23% |
18% |
26% |
20% |
17% |
In terms of the economy overall there was a similar response to the 2012 budget compared to last year’s. 26% (down 1%) thought the economy was good for the economy and 32% (up 3%) thought it was bad.
44% of respondents thought the Federal budget was neither good nor bad for them personally – 17% (up 6%) said it was good and 26% (down 3%) bad. 28% of respondents aged 35-44 thought it was good for them while 38% of those aged 55+ thought it was bad.
31% thought it was good for working people and 24% thought it was bad. 35% of part-time workers thought it was good for working people.
43% (up 18%) thought the budget was bad for business, 10% (down 10%) good and 29% said it was neither.
Approval of Budget Items
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following parts of the Federal budget?
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
Don’t know |
|
| Reduced spending on defence |
48% |
43% |
14% |
34% |
28% |
15% |
10% |
| Increased spending on dental health |
87% |
8% |
30% |
57% |
7% |
1% |
6% |
| Bonus payments to low-income families with children at school |
60% |
33% |
16% |
44% |
20% |
13% |
7% |
| Returning the budget to surplus |
61% |
26% |
15% |
46% |
19% |
7% |
14% |
| Tightening eligibility for parenting payments for single mothers |
65% |
25% |
26% |
39% |
17% |
8% |
10% |
| Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes |
60% |
31% |
28% |
32% |
20% |
11% |
9% |
Respondents were divided on reduced defence spending – 48% approved and 43% disapproved. Support for reduced defence spending was highest among those aged 18-34 (57%).
On all other items measured there was quite strong approval – in particular on increased spending on dental health (87%). Other items received at least 60% support – including 61% approval of returning the budget to surplus. 71% of Labor voters and 58% of Liberal/National voters approved the return to surplus.
Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes was approved by 52% of those on incomes of $1,600+ pw and disapproved by 40%.
Trust Most to Handle Economy
Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – the Treasurer Wayne Swan or the Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Wayne Swan |
34% |
77% |
6% |
51% |
| Joe Hockey |
33% |
5% |
65% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
18% |
29% |
43% |
34% would trust Wayne Swan most to handle the economy and 33% would trust Joe Hockey most. 33% could not give an opinion.
Those aged under 35 trust Wayne Swan more (32%/21%) and those aged 55+ trust Joe Hockey more (47%/31%).
Reason for Budget Deficit
Q. The Federal Government is currently running a budget deficit, but intends to return to surplus with the budget for 2012-13 to be announced next month. Which of the following do you think has been most responsible for the deficit over the last few years?
|
Total 11/4/11 |
Total 10/4/12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Poor economic management by the Government |
23% |
28% |
7% |
48% |
7% |
| Big companies not paying their fair share of taxes |
17% |
16% |
28% |
5% |
28% |
| Lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis |
13% |
16% |
27% |
10% |
22% |
| Spending on big projects like the National Broadband Network |
14% |
15% |
14% |
17% |
10% |
| The cost of the Government’s GFC stimulus packages |
19% |
12% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
14% |
13% |
8% |
18% |
Overall, respondents believe the main reasons for the budget deficit are poor economic management by the Government (28%), big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (16%) and lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis (16%).
Since this question was asked 12 months ago, those blaming the Government for poor economic management has increased from 23% to 28% and those blaming the cost of the Government’s GFC stimulus packages has declined from 19% to 12%.
Labor voters were most likely to blame big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (28%) and lower tax revenues because of the GFC (27%) while Liberal/National voters blame poor economic management by the Government (48%). Greens voters tended to blame big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (28%).
Return to Surplus
Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?
|
Total 4/4/11
|
Total 28/11/11 |
Total 10/4/12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Return to surplus by 2012/13, cut services, raise taxes |
14% |
13% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
7% |
| Delay return to surplus, maintain services, invest in infrastructure |
69% |
71% |
73% |
73% |
76% |
81% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
15% |
15% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
12% support the return to surplus by 2012/13 if it means cutting services and raising taxes and 73% think the Government should delay the return to surplus and maintain services and investment. Support for a return to surplus has not significantly changed since this question was asked in November last year.
Measures to Return to Surplus
Q. In order to meet their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?
|
Total 11/4/11 |
Total 10/4/12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Increase taxes for big corporations |
63% |
67% |
81% |
55% |
80% |
| Reduce tax breaks for high income earners |
51% |
57% |
65% |
52% |
71% |
| Postpone major infrastructure projects like the NBN |
na |
41% |
29% |
58% |
19% |
| Reduce defence spending |
32% |
38% |
42% |
30% |
64% |
| Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments |
36% |
36% |
37% |
38% |
36% |
| Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits |
21% |
23% |
18% |
32% |
12% |
| It does not need to return to surplus so quickly |
38% |
63% |
67% |
66% |
58% |
Overall, the most favoured means of returning the budget to surplus were increasing taxes for big corporations (67%) and reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (57%). Both these measures were strongly favoured by Labor and Greens voters.
Although support was less strong, these two measures were also two of the three the most preferred among Liberal/National voters – 58% think the Government should postpone major infrastructure projects like the NBN.
The main changes since this question was asked 12 months ago are increases in support for reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (up 6%) and reducing defence spending (up 6%).
Note, although 63% thought that the budget does not need to return to surplus so quickly, some of these respondents also agreed with some of the measures listed.
Education Funding or Budget Surplus
Q. The Gonski report also recommends a $5 billion increase in education funding with $1.5 billion of this additional funding coming from the Federal Government and the rest from the State Governments. If the Federal Government provides this additional funding it may mean they will not be able to return the budget to surplus next year.
Do you think it is more important to provide this additional funding for schools or more important to return a budget surplus?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| More important to provide additional funding to schools |
61% |
63% |
58% |
83% |
| More important to return a budget surplus |
24% |
25% |
29% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
12% |
12% |
6% |
61% think it is more important to provide additional funding to schools and 24% say it is more important to return a budget surplus.
Those who think it is more important to provide additional funding were women (65%), aged 45+ (67%), and Greens voters (83%).
Return to Surplus
Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?
| April 4 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Return to surplus by 2012/13, cut services, raise taxes | 14% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 7% |
| Delay return to surplus, maintain services, invest in infrastructure | 69% | 71% | 76% | 68% | 82% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 11% |
13% support the return to surplus by 2012/13 if it means cutting services and raising taxes and 69% think the Government should delay the return to surplus and maintain services and investment. Opinions are unchanged since this question was asked in April.
No more than 19% of any demographic or voter group supported the return to surplus by 2012/13.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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