Trust to handle economy

Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – The Treasurer Wayne Swan or the Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey?

32% trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 35% trust Joe Hockey more. Men favour Joe Hockey 41%/34% while women are evenly split – 31% Wayne Swan and 30% Joe Hockey.

Those on incomes under $1,000pw favour Wayne Swan 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw favour Joe Hockey 37%/32%.

The Australian economy

Q. Thinking about the state of the world economy, how do you think the Australian economy has performed over the last few years compared to other countries?

70% think that Australia’s economy has performed better than other countries over the last few years, 16% say about the same and 12% think it has been worse. This represents a shift from net +51 to net +58 since this question was previously asked in May last year.

There were no substantial differences across demographic groups although those on lower incomes were a little more likely to believe it has performed worse – for those on income under $600pw, 56% think Australia’s economy has performed better and 20% worse.

The economy

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since August.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 7 points to 29%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 8 points to 37%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

Labor voters are optimistic overall – 50% better/22% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 51% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 21% better.

There was little difference across demographic groups except for older respondents – of those aged 55+, 27% think conditions will get better and 48% worse.

Rating of the economy

Q. How would you rate the current state of Australia’s economy?

41% described the economy as good or very good and 23% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither. This is a substantial positive change from a net +6 in May to net +18.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (46%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 65+ (33%) and respondents from Queensland (44%).

Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?

Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.

When Clive Palmer recently announced his replica of the Titanic would be built in China due to the lack of ship building facilities in Australia, the AMWU hit back with a video clip showing the 500-strong workforce at a Newcastle shipyard.

It’s all part of the AMWU’s campaign, Build Them Here, appealing to government to set local content targets on some of the massive construction and transport projects to ensure local manufacturers get contracts ahead of low cost overseas competitors — as is often the case in the mining industry.

Tim Ayres, the NSW secretary for the AMWU, tells 3Q that local manufacturers can build heavy infrastructure – they just need to be given the opportunity. In doing so, new jobs and apprenticeships will be created, valuable intellectual property is developed and the knock on effect strengthens the economy.

The Economy

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since May.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined a point to 22% and those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped a point to 45%. 27% think things will stay much the same (up 2 points).

Labor voters were the most optimistic overall – 34% better/31% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 57% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.

Men (28% better/42% worse) were a little more optimistic than women (16% better/47% worse).

Impact on Australia of European Economic Crisis

Q. How much impact do you think the current economic and financial problems in Europe have on the Australian economy— a major impact, some impact, only a small impact or no impact?

14% think the financial and economic problems in Europe have a major impact on the Australian economy and 60% think they have some impact. Only 19% think they have only a small or no impact.

82% of respondents aged 55+ and 83% of Liberal/National voters think they have major/some impact.

Those most likely to think they have only a small or no impact were aged under 35 (23%) and Greens voters (30%).

Of those who had heard or read a lot about the problems in Europe, 26% think they have a major impact on the Australian economy and 58% think they have some impact.

Statements about European Economic Crisis

Q. Which of the following statements is closer to your own view?

A majority (53%) of respondents agreed with the statement that “The economic and financial crisis in Europe already clearly impact on countries we do business with like the UK and US so it will definitely have a significant impact on the Australian economy”.

Those most likely to agree with this statement were aged 55+ (64%) and Liberal/National voters (65%).

39% of Labor voters agreed with the statement that “The economic and financial crisis in Europe may have some impact on Australia but it will be very limited – because of our great distance from Europe and our trade and investment is no longer dependent on Europe.”

Of those who had heard or read a lot about the problems in Europe, 36% agreed that “The economic and financial crisis in Europe may have some impact on Australia but it will be very limited – because of our great distance from Europe and our trade and investment is no longer dependent on Europe” and 61% agreed that “The economic and financial crisis in Europe already clearly impact on countries we do business with like the UK and US so it will definitely have a significant impact on the Australian economy”.

The Economy – Heading in the Right/Wrong Direction

Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

43% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 32% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was last asked in March, “right direction” has increased 7% and “wrong direction” declined 9%.

71% (up 6%) of Labor voters, 26% (up 7%) of Liberal/National voters and 63% (up 16%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. There were no major differences across demographic groups except for the 18-34 years group where 47% thought the economy was heading in the right direction and 25% in the wrong direction.

TRENDS: Feeling the pain: fair go for Tories

Labor takes pride in being there for those up against hard luck. Targeted financial assistance comes in many forms, whether co-investment to an auto industry being hammered by the two-speed economy, childcare rebates to hard-up families, or the straight cash injection into middle Australian wallets.

It appears there is a new victim of the Australian economy in need of a rescue package: the Coalition voter.

With interest rates, inflation and unemployment all under the 5 per cent threshold, Australia is bucking the global trend in maintaining stability in the face of global unrest. But our polling this week shows only around one third of Australians are prepared to say the economy is performing well.

And while many are unimpressed with Australia’s performance, Coalition voters – and that’s a lot of people these days – are feeling the economic pain more intensely.

Read more on this at the Drum

Economic Reforms

Q. Thinking about the major economic reform in Australia since the 1980s like floating the dollar, removing tariffs and privatisation of Government services like Telstra and utilities, who do you think has benefited most – ordinary Australians through higher incomes and more growth and jobs, or corporations through higher profits and less regulation?

54% thought that corporations have benefited most from Australia’s major economic reforms – only 5% think ordinary Australians have benefited most and 20% thought both had benefited equally.

Those most likely to think corporations had benefited most were Greens voters (62%), aged 55+ (60%) and those on incomes under $600pw (61%).