Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,905 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 25/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/4/13 |
Last week 15/4/13 |
This week 22/4/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,894 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 5/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
Last week 25/2/13 |
This week 4/3/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,895 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago 14/1/13 |
Last week 21/01/13 |
This week 29/01/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
4% |
4% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,861 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
Last week ago 14/1/13 |
This week 21/01/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
4% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 26/11/12 |
Last week 3/12/12 |
This week 10/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,832 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 29/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
Last week 19/11/12 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
42% |
43% |
44% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,925 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 22/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 7/11/12 |
Last week 12/11/12 |
This week 19/11/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
43% |
42% |
43% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
46% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
52% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Party trust to handle important election issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
ALP |
Libs |
Greens |
Don’t know |
Difference |
Difference |
|
| Management of the economy |
31% |
45% |
2% |
22% |
-14 |
-18 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
38% |
33% |
4% |
24% |
+5 |
-2 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
32% |
35% |
7% |
25% |
-3 |
-6 |
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
22% |
38% |
21% |
+16 |
+17 |
| A fair industrial relations system |
41% |
32% |
4% |
23% |
+9 |
+6 |
| Political leadership |
26% |
38% |
6% |
30% |
-12 |
-16 |
| Addressing climate change |
22% |
23% |
32% |
24% |
+9 |
+7 |
| Controlling interest rates |
28% |
39% |
3% |
30% |
-11 |
-18 |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
34% |
36% |
4% |
27% |
-2 |
-6 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
21% |
28% |
23% |
27% |
-7 |
-12 |
| Housing affordability |
28% |
33% |
5% |
33% |
-5 |
-11 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
30% |
39% |
4% |
27% |
-9 |
-10 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
25% |
40% |
4% |
31% |
-15 |
-22 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
20% |
38% |
13% |
29% |
-18 |
-20 |
| Managing population growth |
22% |
37% |
6% |
35% |
-15 |
-19 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
Labor leads the Liberal Party on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.
There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since June, there has been a shift in Labor’s favour on most issues – especially, ensuring a quality education for all children, controlling interest rates, housing affordability and security and the war on terrorism.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,863 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 8/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 22/10/12 |
Last week 29/10/12 |
This week 7/11/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
Last week 22/10/12 |
This week 29/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 24/9/12 |
2 weeks ago 8/10/12 |
Last week 15/10/12 |
This week 22/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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