Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
58% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
28% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has dropped over the last month. 33% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 58% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -25 over the last 4 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s lowest rating since he became Opposition Leader.
65% (down 9%) of Coalition voters approve and 29% (up 7%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/56% disapprove, women 29% approve/59% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -16 to -20 and with women from -19 to -30.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
Last week 22/10/12 |
This week 29/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 10 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 Jun |
12 Sep |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
13 Aug |
10 Sep |
15 Oct |
Vote |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
40% |
43% |
89% |
5% |
77% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
36% |
2% |
81% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
9% |
14% |
21% |
43% (up 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men are evenly split (at 40% each) and women prefer Julia Gillard 47%/33%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 8 points in her favour among men (from 36%/44%) but is unchanged among women (from 44%/30%).
Performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?
| 7 Mar 2011 | 6 Jun 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable | 41% | 42% | 38% | 6% | 77% | 10% | |
| Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government | 43% | 44% | 45% | 82% | 11% | 77% | |
| Don’t know | 16% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 13% |
The proportion of respondents that believe that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition Leader well is 38%, down four points from when the question was last asked on 6 June 2011. Coalition voters are far more likely to regard Abbott as performing the role well (77%).
Forty five per cent (45%) of respondents believe that Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of Government (45%), a result that is fairly consistent with the previous occasions on which the question has been polled. Labor voters are the most likely to agree with this position (82%), as are Greens voters (77%).
Respondents aged 65+ are much more likely to regard Abbott as performing well (56%).
Respondents from Queensland were also somewhat more likely to regard Abbott as doing well (44%).
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
29 Mar | 5 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 37% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 50% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 13% |
37% (down 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -10 to -13 over the last 4 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s worst approval rating this year.
72% of Coalition voters approve and 20% disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/49% disapprove, women 33% approve/51% disapprove.
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 14% | 35% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 9% | 29% | 28% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 4% | 26% | 32% | 25% | 8% | 6% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 1% | 9% | 35% | 30% | 13% | 11% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 36% | 34% | 5% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 69% | 8% | 36% | 43% | 57% | 17% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 35% | 31% | 68% | 6% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 19% | 45% | 44% | 21% | 17% | 54% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 6% | 50% | 15% | 42% | 6% | 50% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 14% | 64% | 8% | 81% | 11% | 73% |
Overall, Julia Gillard (49% good/25% bad) and Bob Brown (38%/21%) are thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Tony Abbott has had a good year (30%/33%).
A majority of their own voters thought Julia Gillard (69%) and Bob Brown (68%) have had a good year but only 44% of Liberal/National voters think Tony Abbott has had a good year. There is a substantial gender difference on the assessment of Tony Abbott – men split 37% good/30% bad and women 23% good/36% bad. Comments »
Liberal Party Leadership
Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best person to lead the Liberal Party at the next election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott | 23% | 5% | 50% | 5% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 22% | 27% | 19% | 39% |
| Joe Hockey | 14% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| Julie Bishop | 6% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
| Andrew Robb | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Someone else | 15% | 22% | 3% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 7% | 19% |
23% think Tony Abbott would be the best person to lead the Liberal Party at the next election, 22% prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 14% Joe Hockey.
Among Coalition voters, 50% prefer Tony Abbott, 19% Malcolm Turnbull and 15% Joe Hockey.
Tony Abbott is preferred over Malcolm Turnbull by those aged under 45 22% to 19% but the over 45’s prefer Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott 27% to 25%.
A similar question (although not exactly the same) asked in September showed Tony Abbott with a 26% to 20% lead over Malcolm Turnbull overall and 53% to 15% among Coalition voters. Joe Hockey’s support was 15% in total and 17% among Liberal voters. Comments »
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% | 45% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% |
39% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 45% (up 8%) disapprove – a shift from a net rating of +6% to -6%.
74% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (up 6%) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/47% disapprove, women 37% approve/41% disapprove. Comments »
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | 18 Oct 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10 | ||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 92% | 9% | 81% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 2% | 75% | 4% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 16% | 15% | 23% |
49% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a widening of the gap from 12% to 16% since last month’s figures. This is the largest gap since the 2 August survey.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 50%/34% and women 49%/33%. Comments »
Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 70% | 71% | 1% |
| Hard-working | 76% | 78% | 2% |
| A capable leader | 47% | 52% | 5% |
| Demanding | 53% | 61% | 8% |
| Arrogant | 59% | 60% | 1% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 57% | 53% | -4% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 50% | 53% | 3% |
| Visionary | 32% | 31% | -1% |
| Good in a crisis | 40% | 42% | 2% |
| Narrow-minded | 56% | 53% | -3% |
| Down to earth | 47% | 47% | 0% |
| Too inflexible | 45% | 43% | -2% |
| Complacent | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| More honest than most politicians | 33% | 32% | -1% |
| Trustworthy | 33% | 35% | 2% |
Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader – Gender differences
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| Total | Male | Female | |
| Intelligent | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Hard-working | 78% | 79% | 77% |
| A capable leader | 52% | 54% | 50% |
| Demanding | 61% | 66% | 56% |
| Arrogant | 60% | 63% | 56% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 53% | 57% | 49% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 53% | 52% | 54% |
| Visionary | 31% | 32% | 30% |
| Good in a crisis | 42% | 44% | 40% |
| Narrow-minded | 53% | 56% | 51% |
| Down to earth | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| Too inflexible | 43% | 47% | 40% |
| Complacent | 32% | 34% | 29% |
| More honest than most politicians | 32% | 32% | 31% |
| Trustworthy | 35% | 36% | 34% |
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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