TRENDS: Seeing through the feel-good mining ads
Peter Lewis says the public no longer believes that mining has personal benefits – despite an expensive ad campaign from the industry.
The long-running ‘This is our story’ campaign is the soft side of the anti-mining tax’s shock-and-awe bombardment of 2010 that delivered the head of a prime minister and a windfall approaching $20 billion for its sponsors.
But in the intervening 18 months, the national tone has changed from one where the mining industry’s success was seen as central to the national interest to one where the question appears to be: is this ‘our’ story or just theirs?
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,910 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 2/4/12 |
Last week 16/4/12 |
This week 23/4/12 |
This week 30/4/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These figures have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
5 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
87% |
21% |
74% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
7% |
75% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
48% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 42% think an election should be held now.
10% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in March 2012.
Government Regulation
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Governments making laws to regulate the following?
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
Don’t know |
|
| Wearing seatbelts in cars |
97% |
2% |
74% |
23% |
2% |
* |
1% |
| Wearing bike helmets |
94% |
6% |
65% |
29% |
5% |
1% |
1% |
| Personal use of recreational drugs |
59% |
34% |
32% |
27% |
19% |
15% |
7% |
| Smoking in public places |
67% |
30% |
40% |
27% |
16% |
14% |
3% |
| Buying and consuming alcohol |
69% |
26% |
26% |
43% |
19% |
7% |
5% |
| Shopping hours |
56% |
38% |
16% |
40% |
28% |
10% |
6% |
| Cigarette packaging |
64% |
29% |
35% |
29% |
16% |
13% |
6% |
| Junk food advertising |
66% |
28% |
29% |
37% |
19% |
9% |
6% |
| Films (i.e. censorship) |
62% |
31% |
20% |
42% |
20% |
11% |
7% |
| The internet |
49% |
43% |
19% |
30% |
23% |
20% |
8% |
For each of the areas listed above (except for ‘the internet’) more than half of respondents approve of Governments making laws to regulate the area.
The highest levels of approval were for ‘wearing seatbelts in cars’ (97% approve) and ‘wearing bike helmets’ (94% approve).
The highest levels of disapproval were for ‘the internet’ (43% disapprove) and ‘shopping hours’ (38% disapprove).
Most Important Factor in Government Regulation
Q. What should be the most important factor Governments consider in relation to regulating each of these issues – protecting rights and freedom, protecting people’s health and safety or managing the cost to taxpayers (e.g. health costs of drug/alcohol/tobacco use)?
|
Protecting rights and freedom |
Protecting people’s health and safety |
Managing the cost to taxpayers |
Don’t know |
|
| Wearing seatbelts in cars |
5% |
91% |
3% |
2% |
| Wearing bike helmets |
6% |
89% |
3% |
2% |
| Personal use of recreational drugs |
18% |
61% |
12% |
9% |
| Smoking in public places |
19% |
67% |
9% |
5% |
| Buying and consuming alcohol |
25% |
58% |
11% |
6% |
| Shopping hours |
55% |
11% |
16% |
19% |
| Cigarette packaging |
16% |
61% |
14% |
8% |
| Junk food advertising |
16% |
66% |
11% |
8% |
| Films (i.e. censorship) |
59% |
19% |
7% |
15% |
| The internet |
62% |
18% |
6% |
15% |
For most of the areas listed above, the majority of respondents thought the most important factor for Governments to consider was ‘protecting people’s health and safety’.
The three areas where respondents thought that is was more important to consider ‘protecting rights and freedoms’ were ‘the internet’ (62%), ‘films’ (59%) and ‘shopping hours’ (55%).
‘Managing the cost to tax payers’ was not considered to be an important factor by most respondents.
Awareness of Aged Care Reforms
Q. The Federal Government recently announced changes to aged care which included extra funding, better access to aged care services, capping costs of aged care accommodation and in-home care and means testing aged care accommodation costs. How much have you read or heard about those aged care changes?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| A lot |
7% |
11% |
7% |
4% |
| Some |
26% |
31% |
26% |
26% |
| A little |
32% |
28% |
35% |
32% |
| Nothing |
30% |
25% |
28% |
37% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
4% |
5% |
1% |
Just 7% of respondents claim to have read or heard ‘a lot’ about the recent Federal Government changes to aged care. A further 26% have read or heard ‘some’.
32% of respondents have read or heard ‘a little’ while 30% have read or heard ‘nothing’.
Labor voters were more likely to have read or heard ‘a lot’ (11%) or ‘some’ (31%).
There were no significant differences based on gender.
Older respondents were more likely to state that they had read or heard ‘some’ about the aged care changes (33% of those aged 55-64 and 39% of those aged 65+).
Opinion of Aged Care Reforms
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s changes to aged care?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
61% |
71% |
56% |
68% |
| Total disapprove |
7% |
4% |
10% |
5% |
| Strongly approve |
16% |
24% |
11% |
20% |
| Approve |
45% |
47% |
45% |
48% |
| Disapprove |
6% |
3% |
9% |
3% |
| Strongly disapprove |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
25% |
34% |
28% |
61% of respondents approve of the Government’s changes to aged care. Just 7% disapprove.
Labor voters were more likely to approve (71%); however approval rates were still high for Lib/Nat voters (54%).
Females (65%) were more likely than males (56%) to approve of the changes.
Older respondents were also more likely to approve of the changes (78% of those aged 55-64 and 71% of those aged 65+).
Party Trust Most on Aged Care
Q. Which party would you trust most to provide aged care services?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labor Party |
31% |
77% |
6% |
46% |
| Liberal Party |
27% |
- |
58% |
7% |
| No difference |
30% |
17% |
26% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
6% |
10% |
4% |
There was very little difference between the parties as to who respondents would trust more to provide aged care services – 31% selected Labor, 27% selected the Liberal Party and 30% said there was no difference.
Respondents tended to follow party lines in terms of which party they would trust most to deliver aged care services. However a large proportion of Labor (17%), Liberal (26%) and Green (43%) voters said there was no difference between the parties.
Males (32%) were more likely than females (22%) to most trust the Liberal party.
Joe Hockey Statement
Q. The Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey recently said people in Western countries have an attitude of “entitlement” and expect the Government to provide assistance and subsidies for things like education, health, income support, retirement benefits, unemployment benefits. Do you agree or disagree that people in Australia receive too much Government assistance?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total agree |
39% |
27% |
54% |
19% |
| Total disagree |
33% |
55% |
20% |
58% |
| Strongly agree |
14% |
10% |
21% |
3% |
| Agree |
25% |
17% |
33% |
16% |
| Neither agree nor disagree |
23% |
21% |
23% |
23% |
| Disagree |
18% |
22% |
13% |
31% |
| Strongly disagree |
15% |
23% |
7% |
27% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
7% |
3% |
- |
Respondents were somewhat evenly split on their response to this question – 39% agree that people in Australia receive too much Government assistance while 33% disagree.
23% neither agree nor disagree and 5% don’t know.
Lib/Nat voters were significantly more likely to agree that people in Australia receive too much Government assistance (54%). Labor (55%) and Green (58%) voters were more likely to disagree.
Males (44%) were far more likely than females (32%) to agree that people in Australia receive too much Government assistance.
Those aged 65+ were also more likely to agree with this statement (48%), however those aged 55-64 were less likely (34%).
Australian Spend on Aid
Q. In 2000 John Howard signed the Millennium Declaration committing Australia to spend 0.7% of Gross National Income on aid (the equivalent of 70 cents in every $100 earned in the economy). How much do you think Australia spent on aid in 2011?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| 0.35 |
13% |
15% |
12% |
16% |
| 0.5 |
12% |
10% |
16% |
14% |
| 0.7 |
7% |
10% |
7% |
8% |
| More than 0.7 |
24% |
28% |
25% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
44% |
37% |
40% |
42% |
When asked home much of Australia’s Gross National Income is spent on aid, the largest proportion of respondents stated ‘don’t know’ (44%).
The next largest proportion (24%) said that it was more than the 0.7 committed in the Millennium Declaration.
13% said that Australia spent 0.35 on aid, and 12% said 0.5. Just 7% said 0.7.
There was little difference across voting intention.
Females (48%) were more likely than males (39%) to select ‘don’t know’.
Australian Commitment to Aid
Q. The bipartisan commitment on aid says Australia will allocate 0.5% of Gross National Income (50 cents of every $100 earned in Australia) by 2015. Considering Australia gave 0.35% in 2011, do you think Australia should meet this commitment?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should commit 0.5% |
37% |
46% |
29% |
62% |
| Should not commit 0.5% |
35% |
25% |
46% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
29% |
28% |
25% |
23% |
The respondents were quite evenly split in their response to this question – 37% think Australia should commit 0.5% by 2015, 35% think that Australia should not commit to 0.5% by 2015 and 29% don’t know.
Lib/Nat voters were more likely to state that Australia should not commit to 0.5% (46%). Green voters were more likely to state that Australia should commit to 0.5% (62%).
Males (40%) were more likely than females (29%) to think that Australia should not commit to 0.5%. Females (33%) were more likely than males (24%) to select ‘don’t know’.
Those aged 18-24 were more likely to think that Australia should commit to 0.5% (48%).
Those in QLD were more likely to think Australia should not commit to 0.5% (43%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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