Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 26, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size =  1,832 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

29/10/12

2 weeks ago

12/11/12

Last week

19/11/12

This week

Liberal

44%

42%

43%

44%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

45%

46%

47%

Labor

38.0%

36%

37%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

52%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

46%

48%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Support for major Government decisions

Nov 26, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government decisions?

 

Total Support

Total Oppose

 

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Don’t know

NBN (National Broadband Network) – high speed broadband access across Australia

69%

20%

30%

39%

11%

9%

11%

The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) – a tax on large profits of mining companies

63%

22%

25%

38%

12%

10%

15%

The carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit

46%

44%

17%

29%

19%

25%

10%

The decision which has the most support amongst respondents is the NBN, with 69% in favour and only 20% opposed.

There is also a similar level of support from respondents for the MRRT, with 63% in favour of the tax and about a third of that amount of respondents (22%) opposed.

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has increased since the last time the question was polled on 2 October 2012.  On that occasion, 38% of respondents supported the carbon tax, whilst 48% were opposed.  The question this week, asked slightly differently in so far as being asked in the context of three Government decisions, nonetheless shows an increase in support for the carbon pricing scheme from 38% to 46% and a drop in opposition from 48% to 44%.

Respondents aged 65+ were the most likely to oppose the carbon tax (57%), the NBN (41%) and the MRRT (36%).

Respondents aged 18-24 were more likely to support the NBN (77%), as were those aged between 25-34 (79%).

Repealing major Government decisions

Nov 26, 2012

Q. If the Liberal and National parties win the next election, should they repeal any of these Government decisions?

 

Yes, should repeal

No, should not repeal

Don’t know

The carbon pricing scheme

45%

37%

18%

NBN (National Broadband Network)

18%

63%

20%

The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT)

24%

50%

28%

A greater portion of respondents believe that a Coalition government should repeal the carbon pricing scheme (45%) that those that believe they should not (37%).

A majority of respondents otherwise believe that a Coalition government should not repeal the NBN (63%), and a greater portion believe it should not repeal the MRRT (50%) compared to those that believe it should (24%).

Looking at the results by voting intention, Lib/Nat voters are also more likely to believe a Coalition government should repeal the carbon pricing scheme (72%), the NBN (30%) and the MRRT (44%).

Broken down by gender, male respondents (50%) are more likely than female respondents (39%) to believe that a Coalition government should repeal the carbon tax.  Conversely, male respondents were more likely to believe that a Coalition government should not repeal the NBN (66%) compared to female respondents (60%) and also more likely to believe that they should not repeal the MRRT (54%) compared with female respondents (47%).

Likelihood of repealing major Government decisions

Nov 26, 2012

Q. If the Liberal and National parties win the next election, do you think they will repeal any of these Government decisions?

 

Yes, probably will repeal

No, probably won’t repeal

Don’t know

The carbon pricing scheme

44%

32%

24%

NBN (National Broadband Network)

18%

54%

28%

The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT)

33%

35%

32%

A greater portion of respondents believe that a Coalition government will repeal the carbon tax (44%) than those that believe they will not repeal it (32%).

The majority of respondents believe that a Coalition government probably won’t repeal the NBN (54%).

Respondents are evenly split on whether a Coalition government will repeal the MRRT, with 33% believing they will repeal it and 35% believing they probably won’t.

Impact of carbon pricing scheme

Nov 26, 2012

Q. Since the carbon pricing scheme was introduced on the 1st July this year, has the impact on your household been worse than expected, not as bad as expected or about the same as you expected?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Worse than expected

26%

12%

39%

14%

Not as bad as expected

26%

35%

20%

36%

About the same as expected

36%

47%

30%

37%

Don’t know

12%

6%

11%

13%

An equal portion of respondents believe the impact on their household of the carbon pricing scheme has been worse than expected (26%) and not as bad as expected (26%).  Thirty six percent (36%) believe it to be about the same as they expected, whilst 12% don’t know.

Looking at results by voting intention, Lib/Nat voters are far more likely to claim the impact on their household of the carbon pricing scheme is worse than expected (39%), compared with Labor voters (12%) and Greens voters (14%).

Budget surplus

Nov 26, 2012

Q. In order to keep to their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increase taxes for big corporations

59%

70%

51%

65%

Reduce tax breaks for high income earners

46%

51%

41%

62%

Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments

43%

42%

48%

52%

Reduce defence spending

38%

40%

33%

70%

Postpone building the NBN

27%

18%

42%

14%

Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits

26%

20%

36%

17%

Postpone other infrastructure projects like new roads and highways

12%

12%

13%

12%

Measures most supported by respondents in order to keep the commitment to the 2012-13 budget surplus are increasing taxes for big corporations (59%), reducing tax breaks for high income earners (46%) and cutting ‘middle class welfare’ (43%).

Looking at the results by voting intention, the majority of Lib/Nat voters support increasing taxes for big corporations (51%).  Labor voters are most in favour of increasing taxes for big corporations (70%) and reducing tax breaks for high income earners (51%).  Greens voters are most inclined to support reducing defence spending (70%) and increasing taxes for big corporations (65%).

Voting behaviour in a federal election

Nov 26, 2012

Q. Thinking about Federal elections, which of the following best describes you how you vote?

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

I usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally

36%

41%

40%

34%

I always vote for the same party

30%

36%

34%

25%

I don’t have any usual party preference and just decide who to vote for each election on its own

13%

8%

9%

19%

I often switch my vote between Labor and Liberals or Nationals.

9%

5%

15%

3%

I often switch my vote between a major party (Labor or Liberal) and a minor party (e.g. Greens) or an independent

5%

7%

1%

11%

Don’t know

8%

4%

1%

7%

The greatest portion of respondents claim to usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally (36%).  A slightly smaller portion of respondents claim to always vote for the same party (30%).

Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents don’t have any usual party preference.  Nine percent (9%) claim to switch their vote between Labor and Liberals/Nationals (9%) and 5% claim to switch their vote between a major party and a minor party.

Looking at the results by voting intention, 41% of Labor voters and 40% of Lib/Nat voters usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally.  Again, a fairly equal portion of Labor voters (36%) and Lib/Nat voters (34%) claim to always vote for the same party.

Greens voters are the most likely to claim that don’t have a usual party preference (19%) and that they often switch their vote between a major party and a minor party (11%).