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  • Mar, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,797 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    25/2/13

    2 weeks ago

    11/2/13

    Last week

    18/3/13

    This week

    25/3/13

    Liberal

    46%

    45%

    45%

    45%

    National

    3%

    3%

    2%

    2%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    49%

    48%

    47%

    47%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    34%

    35%

    33%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    9%

    8%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    56%

    55%

    54%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    45%

    46%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Mar, 2013

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    Firmness of vote

    Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held in September this year?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    I will definitely not change my mind

    43%

    40%

    57%

    18%

    It is very unlikely I will change my mind

    31%

    34%

    29%

    31%

    It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

    19%

    16%

    11%

    41%

    Don’t know

    7%

    9%

    4%

    10%

    74% of Labor voters will definitely not or are very unlikely to change their vote compared to 86% of Liberal/National voters but only 49% of Greens voters.

    25% of aged 18-34, 20% of aged 35-54 and 11% of aged 55+ say they may change their mind.

  • Mar, 2013

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    Main reason for voting Labor

    Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Labor Party if there was an election today?

    I always vote for the Labor Party

    28%

    The Labor Party has been a good Government

    11%

    The Liberal Party would not be a good Government

    4%

    I don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister

    35%

    The Labor Party have better policies than the Liberal Party

    10%

    I would be personally better off under a Labor Government

    8%

    Other reason

    2%

    Don’t know

    2%

    More than one third said the main reason they would be voting Labor was they don’t want Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

    28% said they always vote Labor and 11% said the Labor Party had been a good Government.

  • Mar, 2013

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    Main reason for voting Liberal/National

    Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Liberal or National Party if there was an election today?

    I always vote for the Liberal or National Party

    21%

    The Labor Party has been a poor Government

    34%

    The Liberal and National Parties would be a good Government

    12%

    I don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

    17%

    The Liberal/National Parties have better policies than the Labor Party

    9%

    I would be personally better off under a Liberal/National Government

    6%

    Other reason

    1%

    Don’t know

    *

    One third say they would vote Liberal/National because the Labor Party has been a poor Government. 21% say they always vote Liberal/National and 17% don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister.

    40% of men and 27% of women say the Labor Party has been a poor Government.

  • Mar, 2013

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    Media regulation

    Q. Thinking about the media in Australia, do you think there needs to be more or less regulation of the media or is the present level of regulation about right?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Needs to be more regulation

    29%

    38%

    22%

    40%

    Needs to be less regulation

    10%

    9%

    11%

    9%

    Present regulation about right

    43%

    36%

    55%

    35%

    Don’t know

    17%

    18%

    12%

    16%

    29% think the media in Australia needs more regulation, 10% think it needs less regulation and 43% think the present regulation is about right.

    38% of Labor voters and 40% of Greens voters think it needs more regulation.

  • Mar, 2013

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    Read or heard about media regulation proposal

    Q. The Federal Government has proposed new legislation to regulate the media – including  appointing an advocate to oversee the current self-regulatory bodies such as the Press Council and with the power to prevent media mergers not considered to be in the public interest. How much have you read or heard about the Government’s plans to introduce new regulation of the media?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    A lot

    12%

    12%

    14%

    8%

    Some

    22%

    22%

    26%

    22%

    A little

    31%

    29%

    31%

    42%

    Nothing

    29%

    30%

    24%

    28%

    Don’t know

    6%

    7%

    5%

    1%

    60% said they had heard little or nothing about the Federal Government’s proposed legislation to regulate the media. Only 12% said they had read or heard a lot and 22% said they had read/heard some.

    Those most likely to have read/heard a lot/some were men (45%), Liberal/National voters (40%) and aged 55+ (50%).

  • Mar, 2013

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    Media reporting of proposed media regulation

    Q. Do you think the media reporting and commentary on this issue has been good or poor?

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    31%

    23%

    39%

    24%

    Total poor

    25%

    34%

    19%

    33%

    Very good

    8%

    9%

    10%

    1%

    Good

    23%

    14%

    29%

    23%

    Neither good nor poor

    39%

    42%

    37%

    38%

    Poor

    17%

    19%

    17%

    18%

    Very poor

    8%

    15%

    2%

    15%

    Don’t know

    4%

    2%

    4%

    5%

    31% of those who had read/heard about the proposed legislation think the media reporting and commentary has been good and 25% think it has been poor.

    Those most likely to think it has been poor were Labor voters (34%) and Greens voters (33%).

  • Mar, 2013

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    Support for proposed media regulation

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s plans to reform regulation of the media?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    29%

    49%

    18%

    29%

    Total oppose

    34%

    18%

    50%

    30%

    Strongly support

    7%

    13%

    2%

    11%

    Support

    22%

    36%

    16%

    18%

    Oppose

    23%

    16%

    31%

    25%

    Strongly oppose

    11%

    2%

    19%

    5%

    Don’t know

    36%

    33%

    32%

    40%

    29% support the Government’s proposed media regulation and 34% oppose. 36% have no opinion. Labor voters tend to support the legislation (49% to 18%) and Liberal/National voters tend to oppose by a similar margin (18% to 50%). 51% of those aged 55+ oppose the legislation.

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