21 January 2014, 210114, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,962 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
5 weeks ago 17/12/13 |
This week 21/1/14 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
37% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
7% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
5 weeks ago 17/12/13 |
This week 21/1/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
51% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
49% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
|
|
28 May 12 |
8 Apr 13 |
16 Sep 13 |
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
| Total good |
35% |
45% |
40% |
34% |
35% |
40% |
35% |
26% |
||
| Total poor |
29% |
26% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
24% |
26% |
41% |
||
| Very good |
6% |
8% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
||
| Good |
29% |
37% |
34% |
30% |
30% |
36% |
30% |
23% |
||
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
28% |
32% |
36% |
38% |
35% |
37% |
31% |
||
| Poor |
20% |
17% |
20% |
21% |
19% |
21% |
22% |
31% |
||
| Very poor |
9% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
3% |
4% |
10% |
||
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
34% described the economy as good or very good and 26% poor/very poor – 36% said it was neither. This represents a net decline from +15 to +8 since September.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (41%). Liberal/National voters (40%) were only slightly more likely that Labor voters (35%) to think the economy was good.
Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
|
17 May 10 |
9 May 11 |
18 Jun 12 |
29 Apr 13 |
16 Sep 13 |
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
| The right direction |
51% |
45% |
43% |
36% |
44% |
38% |
23% |
63% |
21% |
33% |
||
| The wrong direction |
25% |
29% |
32% |
39% |
26% |
33% |
49% |
14% |
54% |
38% |
||
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
30% |
29% |
28% |
24% |
25% |
29% |
38% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 33% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in September, “right direction” has decreased 6% and “wrong direction” increased 7%.
23% (down 17%) of Labor voters, 63% (up 11%) of Liberal/National voters and 21% (down 12%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 42% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 35% of women.
21 January 2014, 210114, better or worse off, company profits, economy, education and schools, liberal government, political leadership, trust in government
Q. Under the new Liberal/National Government, do you expect the following will get better or worse?
| – |
Total |
Total worse |
Net |
A |
A little better |
Stay much the same |
A little wor- |
A |
Don’t know |
Better |
Wor |
| Political leadership |
33% |
38% |
-5 |
15% |
18% |
25% |
12% |
26% |
3% |
42% |
31% |
| Trust in Government |
30% |
43% |
-13 |
12% |
18% |
26% |
13% |
30% |
3% |
36% |
36% |
| Unemployment |
22% |
45% |
-23 |
6% |
16% |
30% |
21% |
24% |
3% |
27% |
37% |
| The economy overall |
30% |
38% |
-8 |
10% |
20% |
29% |
21% |
17% |
3% |
38% |
30% |
| The cost of living |
17% |
52% |
-35 |
5% |
12% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
3% |
27% |
40% |
| Interest rates |
16% |
33% |
-17 |
5% |
11% |
47% |
18% |
15% |
4% |
17% |
31% |
| Health services |
18% |
45% |
-27 |
5% |
13% |
35% |
18% |
27% |
3% |
23% |
42% |
| Job security |
17% |
49% |
-32 |
5% |
12% |
32% |
21% |
28% |
3% |
22% |
43% |
| Workers rights and conditions |
14% |
45% |
-31 |
5% |
9% |
36% |
14% |
31% |
4% |
18% |
47% |
| Company profits |
40% |
18% |
+22 |
13% |
27% |
38% |
8% |
10% |
4% |
47% |
14% |
| The environment |
16% |
41% |
-25 |
5% |
11% |
39% |
14% |
27% |
4% |
18% |
39% |
| Education and schools |
20% |
43% |
-23 |
6% |
14% |
33% |
19% |
24% |
3% |
25% |
41% |
| Public services |
17% |
46% |
-29 |
6% |
11% |
35% |
20% |
26% |
3% |
20% |
45% |
| Benefits for people on Government support – such as pensioners and the unemployed |
13% |
49% |
-36 |
4% |
9% |
35% |
21% |
28% |
3% |
19% |
44% |
| Your personal financial situation |
18% |
37% |
-19 |
5% |
13% |
42% |
20% |
17% |
2% |
22% |
35% |
Except for company profits, respondents believed all issues measured would get worse under the new Liberal/National Government. Expectations on each issue have declined since this question was asked immediately after the election. The largest declines have been for cost of living (net score down 22), the economy overall (-16), political leadership (-16), unemployment (-13) and trust in Government (-13).
21 January 2014, 210114, asylum seekers, refugees
Q. As far as you know, are most asylum seekers arriving by in Australia boat genuine refugees or are most of them not genuine refugees?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
| Most of them are genuine refugees |
30% |
41% |
18% |
67% |
24% |
|
| Most of them are not genuine refugees |
47% |
39% |
59% |
18% |
54% |
|
| Don’t know |
23% |
20% |
23% |
15% |
22% |
47% of respondents believe that most asylum seekers arriving by boat are not genuine refugees – 30% believe most are genuine refugees.
Those more likely to think most are not genuine refugees were Liberal/National voters (59%), aged 45+ (55%) and those who had not completed secondary education (58%). Those more likely to think most are genuine refugees were Greens voters (67%), Labor voters (41%) and those with university education (36%).
21 January 2014, 210114, asylum seekers, treatment of asylem seekers
Q. Which of the following comes is closest to your view?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
| All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees |
26% |
20% |
36% |
8% |
27% |
|
| Asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees |
46% |
52% |
35% |
72% |
51% |
|
| Asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees |
15% |
13% |
19% |
4% |
17% |
|
| All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia whether they are genuine refugees or not |
3% |
5% |
1% |
7% |
1% |
|
| Don’t know |
10% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
4% |
46% think that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees and 26% think all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees. Only 15% think asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees.
Those more likely to think they should be sent back to the country they came from were Liberal/National voters (36%), aged 55+ (32%) and those that had not completed secondary education (41%).
Those more likely to think they should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees were Greens voters (72%), Labor voters (52%) and those with university education (55%).
21 January 2014, 210114, asylum seekers
Q. Do you think the Federal Liberal/National Government is too tough or too soft on asylum seekers or is it taking the right approach?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Oct 10 |
Jul 12 |
| Too tough |
22% |
37% |
3% |
68% |
16% |
7% |
12% |
||
| Too soft |
25% |
23% |
23% |
14% |
41% |
63% |
60% |
||
| Taking the right approach |
35% |
19% |
61% |
5% |
25% |
18% |
11% |
||
| Don’t know |
18% |
21% |
13% |
13% |
18% |
12% |
17% |
25% think the Government is too soft on asylum seekers, 22% think they are too tough and 35% think they are taking the right approach.
Since this question was last asked in July 2012, those thinking the Governmemnt are too tough has increased from 12% to 22% – while too soft has declined from 60% to 25% and taking the right approach increased from 11% to 35%.
Those most likely to think they are taking the right approach were Liberal/National voters (61%) and aged 55+ (47%).
21 January 2014, 210114, climate change, extreme temperatures
Q. Do you think the recent extreme temperatures across Australia are likely or unlikely to be related to climate change?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Likely to be related to climate change |
52% |
72% |
33% |
73% |
52% |
|
| Unlikely to be related to climate change |
34% |
18% |
54% |
12% |
38% |
|
| Don’t know |
13% |
10% |
13% |
16% |
10% |
52% think that the recent extreme temperatures across Australia are likely to be related to climate change – 34% think they are unlikely to be related to climate change.
57% of those with university education believe they are related. 48% of those aged 55+ think they are not related.