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  • Jul, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,879 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    17/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    1/7/13

    Last week

    8/7/13

    This week

    15/7/13

    Liberal

     

    44%

    43%

    42%

    42%

    National

    3%

    3%

    4%

    4%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    46%

    46%

    46%

    Labor

    38.0%

    35%

    36%

    38%

    39%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    9%

    8%

    7%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    7%

    8%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    17/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    1/7/13

    Last week

    8/7/13

    This week

    15/7/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    54%

    53%

    52%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    47%

    48%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Approval of Kevin Rudd

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    Kevin Rudd

    31 May 10

    Julia Gillard

    5 Jul 10

     

    Julia Gillard

    11 Jun 13

    Kevin Rudd

    15 Jul 13

    Total approve

    41%

    48%

    37%

    50%

    Total disapprove

    47%

    27%

    54%

    35%

    Strongly approve

    7%

    14%

    10%

    18%

    Approve

    34%

    34%

    27%

    32%

    Disapprove

    25%

    13%

    21%

    15%

    Strongly disapprove

    22%

    14%

    33%

    20%

    Don’t know

    12%

    26%

    9%

    16%

    Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are substantially higher than Julia Gillard’s as last measured 5 weeks ago. 50% (up 13%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 35% (down 19%) disapprove – a net rating of +15 compared to Julia Gillard’s -17.

    85% of Labor voters approve (up 6%) and 4% disapprove (down 10%).

    By gender – men 54% approve/35% disapprove, women 44% approve/34% disapprove.

  • Jul, 2013

    , , ,

    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18
    Jan
    10

    5 Jul

    20 Dec

    14 June  11

    12 Dec

    12
    Jun
    12

    10 Dec

    14
    Jan
    13

    11
    Feb

    11 Mar

    11 Jun

     

    15 Jul

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    33%

    36%

    37%

    40%

    39%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    48%

    53%

    54%

    56%

    57%

    53%

    51%

    49%

    51%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    8%

    7%

    7%

    10%

    11%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    32%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    29%

    30%

    30%

    28%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    25%

    25%

    24%

    25%

    27%

    22%

    22%

    17%

    21%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    28%

    30%

    31%

    30%

    31%

    29%

    32%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    15%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have dropped slightly over the past month. 39% (down 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -9 to -12 over the last 5 weeks.

    75% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 14% (up 3%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 43% approve/50% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -3 to -7 and with women from -17 to -16.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?

     

    Rudd/
    Abbott 21 Jun 10

    Gillard/ Abbott
    5
    Jul 10

    Gillard/ Abbott
    11
    Jun 13

     

    Rudd/ Abbott
    15
    Jul 13
    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd

    47%

    53%

    39%

    50%

    94%

    10%

    84%

    Tony Abbott

    30%

    26%

    40%

    35%

    2%

    72%

    6%

    Don’t know

    23%

    21%

    21%

    15%

    3%

    18%

    10%

    50% believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Kevin Rudd 51%/36% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 49%/33%.

  • Jul, 2013

    , , , ,

    Election of Labor Party leader

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for the leader of the Labor Party to be elected by both the Members of Parliament and the party members?

     

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    56%

    73%

    45%

    64%

    Total disapprove

    19%

    9%

    30%

    11%

    Strongly approve

    18%

    33%

    7%

    29%

    Approve

    38%

    40%

    38%

    35%

    Disapprove

    11%

    8%

    14%

    7%

    Strongly disapprove

    8%

    1%

    16%

    4%

    Don’t know

    25%

    18%

    25%

    25%

    56% approve of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for election of the party leader and 19% disapprove. 73% of Labor voters approve.

  • Jul, 2013

    , , ,

    State of the economy

    Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

     

     

    28 May 12

    8 Apr 13

     

    Total

    15 Jul 13

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    35%

    45%

    36%

    59%

    18%

    54%

    Total poor

    29%

    26%

    30%

    14%

    45%

    12%

    Very good

    6%

    8%

    6%

    10%

    1%

    10%

    Good

    29%

    37%

    30%

    49%

    17%

    44%

    Neither good nor poor

    33%

    28%

    30%

    25%

    34%

    33%

    Poor

    20%

    17%

    22%

    12%

    32%

    11%

    Very poor

    9%

    9%

    8%

    2%

    13%

    1%

    Don’t know

    2%

    2%

    3%

    3%

    2%

    2%

    36% described the economy as good or very good and 30% poor/very poor – 30% said it was neither. This represents a net decline from +19 to +6 since April.

    Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (41%).

    Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (35%) and people with incomes under $600pw (36%).

  • Jul, 2013

    , ,

    Australian economy heading in right or wrong direction

    Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

    17 May 10

    9
    May 11

    4
    Jul
    11

    26 Mar 12

    18
    Jun
    12

    29
    Apr
    13

     

    Total
    15
    Jul 13

     

     

    Vote ALP

    Vote
    Lib

    Vote Greens

    The right direction

    51%

    45%

    37%

    36%

    43%

    36%

    38%

    66%

    18%

    46%

    The wrong direction

    25%

    29%

    43%

    41%

    32%

    39%

    42%

    15%

    66%

    30%

    Don’t know

    24%

    25%

    20%

    22%

    25%

    25%

    20%

    18%

    16%

    24%

    38% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 42% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in April, “right direction” has increased 2% and “wrong direction” increased 3%.

    66% (down 2%) of Labor voters, 18% (down 3%) of Liberal/National voters and 46% (up 1%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 43% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 34% of women.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Involvement in politics

    Q. Thinking about Federal politics and the election, which of the following have you personally done in the last week?

     

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Seen any TV advertising by political parties

    43%

    46%

    44%

    38%

    Received printed material from candidates.

    27%

    26%

    27%

    35%

    Read about Federal politics in a newspaper

    41%

    43%

    43%

    39%

    Watched Federal politicians on TV

    56%

    63%

    54%

    57%

    Listened to Federal politicians on the radio

    22%

    21%

    22%

    32%

    Listened to commentators talking about Federal politics on the radio

    30%

    32%

    29%

    34%

    Watched commentators talking about Federal politics on the TV

    48%

    54%

    47%

    47%

    Read anything about Federal politics on the internet

    39%

    47%

    33%

    49%

    Discussed Federal politics and the election with friends or family

    50%

    56%

    46%

    60%

    TV was the most common way for respondents to engage with politics over the past week. 56% said they had watched Federal politicians on TV and 48% had watched commentators talking about Federal politics on TV.

    Labor voters were more likely to watch politicians (63%) or commentators (54%) on TV and also more likely to use the internet to read about politics (47%).

    There were some substantial differences by age group – 30% of respondents aged under 35 read about politics in a newspaper compared to 57% of those aged 55+ and 42% of aged under 35 watched politicians on TV compared to 71% of aged 55+.

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