14 January 2013, 140113, 2PP, Labor, Labor Party, Liberal, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,878 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 17/12/12 |
This week 14/01/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
14 January 2013, 140113, Approval of Julia Gillard, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
37% |
41% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
53% |
49% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
32% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -16 to -8.
87% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 7% disapprove (down 6%).
By gender – men 40% approve/53% disapprove, women 42% approve/45% disapprove. In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -21 to -13 and with women from -10 to -3.
14 January 2013, 140113, Abbott approval, Tony Abbott approval
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 57% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -23 to -24 over the last 5 weeks.
62% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 31% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 29% approve/60% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -18 to -15 and with women from -28 to -31.
14 January 2013, 140113, Better PM, Julia Gillard, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
89% |
5% |
84% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
1% |
73% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
10% |
22% |
14% |
42% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 39%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%.
14 January 2013, 140113, Support for voluntary voting, voluntary voting
Q. Voting in Federal and State elections in Australia is compulsory. Would you support or oppose making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support |
40% |
34% |
43% |
40% |
| Oppose |
49% |
56% |
49% |
53% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
40% support making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections and 49% oppose.
Highest support for voluntary voting was shown by Liberal/National voters (43%), respondents who don’t know which party they would vote for (48%), full-time workers (45%) and respondents aged 25-34 (49%).
Highest opposition to voluntary voting was shown by Labor voters (56%), and respondents aged 55+ (58%).
14 January 2013, 140113, likelihood of voting, voluntary voting
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary, how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Would definitely vote |
58% |
61% |
67% |
67% |
| Would probably vote |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote |
9% |
8% |
5% |
4% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
If voting at elections was voluntary, 83% said they would definitely or probably vote in the next Federal election – 13% said they would probably or definitely not vote.
Those least likely to vote were aged under 45 (17%) and respondents who did not know which party they would vote for (38%).
14 January 2013, 140113, drop from 18 to 16, oppose, support, voting age
Q. Would you support or oppose lowering the voting age from 18 to 16?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support |
13% |
17% |
10% |
24% |
| Oppose |
78% |
71% |
85% |
64% |
| No opinion |
9% |
11% |
4% |
12% |
Only 13% support lowering the voting age from 18 years to 16 years and 78% oppose.
Support was highest among Greens voters (24%) and respondents aged 25-34 (25%).
14 January 2013, 140113, Federal House of Representatives, first past the post, optional preferential, preferential, voting system
Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.
|
11 Jul 11 |
Total 14 Jan 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Preferential |
22% |
23% |
29% |
20% |
32% |
| Optional preferential |
26% |
25% |
26% |
23% |
43% |
| First past the post |
44% |
44% |
40% |
52% |
24% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 25% optional preferential and 23% the current preferential system – almost no change since the question was last asked in July 2011.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (30%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (52% of aged 45+).
“First past the post” was preferred by 52% Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters preferred optional preferential.