Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,868 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 16/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 30/7/12 |
Last week 6/8/12 |
This week 13/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
13 Aug |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
58% |
57% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
7% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
27% |
24% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
26% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
10% |
13% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 31% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 57% (down 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating of -26.
73% of Labor voters approve (no change) and 17% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 31% approve/60% disapprove, women 31% approve/52% disapprove.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
13 Aug |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
35% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
53% |
51% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
28% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
23% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
12% |
13% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has improved marginally over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -15 over the last 4 weeks.
70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (down 5%) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/51% disapprove, women 32% approve/52% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
Total 13 Aug |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
78% |
4% |
78% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
8% |
77% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
26% |
13% |
18% |
18% |
36% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/33% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.
Same Sex Marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
|
15 Nov 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
4 Jul 11 |
13 Aug 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should be allowed to marry |
53% |
49% |
54% |
54% |
65% |
42% |
83% |
| Should not be allowed to marry |
36% |
40% |
35% |
33% |
27% |
44% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
10% |
11% |
13% |
8% |
14% |
6% |
54% think that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 33% think they should not – a very similar result to last year when this question was last asked.
Strongest support came from women (61%), people aged 35-54 (59%), aged under 35 (56%) and those on incomes over $1,600pw (59%).
Checking Emails
Q. With regard to work emails, how often do you check them in each of the following circumstances?
|
Regularly |
Sometimes |
Occasion-ally |
Never |
|
| Out of work hours |
46% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
| On weekends |
44% |
16% |
18% |
22% |
| On holidays |
31% |
19% |
22% |
27% |
* Based on the 68% of respondents who receive work emails.
46% say they regularly check their work emails out of hours, 44% on weekends and 31% on holidays.
Those most likely to check their emails regularly out of hours were women (52%) and aged 45-54 (57%). Those earning under $1,000pw (54%) were more likely to check emails out of work hours than those earning over $1,000pw (44%).
However, there were no major differences across demographics on checking work emails on weekends or holidays.
Frequency of Checking Emails and Social Media
Q. How often do you check any of the following technologies?
|
At least once every 15 minutes |
At least once an hour |
Every few hours |
At least once a day |
Less often |
Don’t know |
Don’t use |
|
| Text messages |
7% |
16% |
28% |
27% |
13% |
2% |
7% |
| Mobile phone calls |
7% |
16% |
28% |
28% |
14% |
2% |
5% |
| Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) |
3% |
10% |
16% |
27% |
21% |
* |
23% |
| Personal e-mail |
6% |
13% |
29% |
45% |
6% |
* |
1% |
| Work email |
12% |
14% |
15% |
14% |
5% |
* |
39% |
| Voice mail |
3% |
5% |
9% |
15% |
29% |
2% |
38% |
|
Total at least once every 15 minutes |
Aged 18-24 |
Aged 25-34 |
|
| Text messages |
7% |
19% |
11% |
| Mobile phone calls |
7% |
13% |
10% |
| Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) |
3% |
9% |
7% |
| Personal e-mail |
6% |
10% |
12% |
| Work email |
12% |
11% |
22% |
| Voice mail |
3% |
1% |
7% |
|
Total at least once an hour |
Aged 18-24 |
Aged 25-34 |
|
| Text messages |
23% |
59% |
33% |
| Mobile phone calls |
23% |
46% |
34% |
| Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) |
13% |
42% |
24% |
| Personal e-mail |
19% |
33% |
29% |
| Work email |
26% |
30% |
42% |
| Voice mail |
8% |
10% |
13% |
12% say they check work emails ever 15 minutes and 26% check them at least once an hour. 23% check text messages and mobile phone calls at least once an hour.
Respondents aged under 35 were by far the most frequent users of mobile phones and social media.
19% of those aged 18-24 check their text messages and 13% check their mobile phone calls at least once every 15 minutes.
22% of those aged 25-34 check their work emails at least every 15 minutes.
At least every hour, 59% of those aged 18-24 check their text messages, 46% check their mobile phone calls and 42% check social media.
Anxiety about Checking Emails and Social Media
Q. If you can’t check the following every 15 minutes do you get anxious?
|
Total |
Aged 18-24 |
Aged 25-34 |
|
| Text messages |
9% |
18% |
15% |
| Mobile phone calls |
8% |
11% |
16% |
| Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) |
6% |
8% |
13% |
| Personal e-mail |
7% |
6% |
15% |
| Work email |
8% |
6% |
14% |
| Voice mail |
4% |
- |
11% |
9% say they get anxious if they can’t check their text messages every 15 minutes and 8% get anxious about mobile phone calls and work emails.
18% of those aged 18-24 get anxious about checking text messages every 15 minutes but are less concerned about social media and emails.
More than one in ten people aged 25-34 get anxious about checking each media every 15 minutes – especially mobile phone calls (16%), text messages (15%) and personal emails (15%).
Situations Check Smartphone
Q. Do you check your iphone/smartphone/blackberry in any of the following situations?
|
Often |
Sometimes |
Rarely |
Never |
|
| While driving |
4% |
14% |
24% |
58% |
| During meals |
7% |
26% |
27% |
40% |
| During conversations |
5% |
26% |
30% |
40% |
| Before getting out of bed |
18% |
22% |
15% |
45% |
|
Total Often |
Aged 18-24 |
Aged 25-34 |
|
| While driving |
4% |
6% |
9% |
| During meals |
7% |
26% |
11% |
| During conversations |
5% |
12% |
8% |
| Before getting out of bed |
18% |
48% |
29% |
* based on the 82% of respondents who say they use an iphone/smartphone/blackberry
Of those who have an iphone/smartphone/blackberry, 18% check them regularly before getting out of bed and 7% during meals.
Those aged 18-24 were the most frequent users in these situations – 48% check before getting out of bed and 26% check during meals. 29% of those aged 25-34 check before getting out of bed.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 13 May 2013
In this week's report:
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Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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