The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,905 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    15/10/12

    2 weeks ago

    29/10/12

    Last week

    7/11/12

    This week

    12/11/12

    Liberal

    44%

    44%

    43%

    42%

    National

    3%

    4%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    48%

    46%

    45%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    36%

    37%

    37%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    7%

    8%

    8%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    53%

    54%

    53%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    47%

    46%

    47%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , ,

    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    35%

    41%

    41%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    61%

    56%

    54%

    51%

    49%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    9%

    7%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    24%

    26%

    28%

    32%

    34%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    29%

    22%

    27%

    24%

    25%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    32%

    34%

    27%

    27%

    24%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    7%

    12%

    11%

    8%

    10%

    41% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 2%) disapprove – a 2-point change in net rating from -10 to -8. This is Julia Gillard’s best approval rating since May 2011.

    85% of Labor voters approve (down 2%) and 8% disapprove (down 1%).

    By gender – men 37% approve/53% disapprove, women 44% approve/44% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men from -14 to -16 and an improvement with women from -4 to 0.

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , ,

    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    37%

    33%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    55%

    54%

    58%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    9%

    6%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    29%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    27%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    28%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    29%

    31%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    13%

    9%

    10%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has dropped over the last month. 33% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 58% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -25 over the last 4 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s lowest rating since he became Opposition Leader.

    65% (down 9%) of Coalition voters approve and 29% (up 7%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 36% approve/56% disapprove, women 29% approve/59% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -16 to -20 and with women from -19 to -30.

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , ,

    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar 2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    37%

    40%

    43%

    45%

    86%

    6%

    81%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    37%

    37%

    37%

    36%

    32%

    4%

    71%

    4%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    26%

    24%

    20%

    23%

    10%

    23%

    15%

    45% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (down 4%) prefer Tony Abbott. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since February 2011.

    Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 49%/28%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 4 points in her favour among men (from 40%/40%) and 7 points among women (from 47%/33%).

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , , , , ,

    Most important reform

    Q. The Federal Government are proposing to implement a number of reforms , which will require funding of billions of dollars. Which of the following reforms do you think is most important?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    National disability insurance scheme

    16%

    20%

    16%

    10%

    Extra school funding recommended by the Gonski Review

    31%

    35%

    28%

    41%

    Increased resources for aged care

    29%

    25%

    37%

    20%

    Returning water to the Murray River

    12%

    12%

    9%

    18%

    Don’t know

    12%

    8%

    10%

    9%

    31% think that the Government’s most important proposed reform is extra school funding as recommended by the Gonski Review and 29% favour increased resources for aged care.

    Extra school, funding is supported more by Labor voters, (35%), Greens voters (41%) and those aged under 45 (40%).

    Increased resources for aged care is favoured by Liberal/National voters (37%) and those aged 45+ (42%).

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , , ,

    Preferred option for reducing spending

    Q. If the Government decided to reduce spending in other areas to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Reduce the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminate it for people earning over $75,000

    53%

    52%

    56%

    55%

    Eliminate Family Tax Benefit A for families earning over $75,000

    13%

    15%

    12%

    12%

    Increase taxation of family trusts

    13%

    16%

    12%

    14%

    Remove the private health insurance rebate altogether

    4%

    4%

    4%

    6%

    None of them

    11%

    7%

    14%

    1%

    Don’t know

    6%

    6%

    2%

    11%

    53% favour reducing the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminating it for people earning over $75,000 if the Government decided to reduce spending to pay for reforms. More than half of all voter groups support this measure. It is favoured by 57% of women and 49% of men.

    43% of those aged under 35 support it compared to 62% of those aged 45+.

    Only 4% favour removing the private health insurance rebate altogether.

  • Nov, 2012

    , , , , ,

    Preferred option for raising revenue

    Q. If the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Increase income taxes for those on high incomes

    46%

    53%

    40%

    51%

    Increase the GST rate to 11 or 12%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    14%

    Extend the GST to goods and services like food and health which are currently exempt

    5%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    Increase income taxes overall

    5%

    6%

    5%

    5%

    None of them

    27%

    20%

    32%

    14%

    Don’t know

    7%

    6%

    4%

    7%

    46% favour increasing income taxes for those on high incomes if the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for reforms.

    Increasing the GST rate (10%) has greater support than extending the GST to food and health (5%).

    Increasing income taxes for those on high incomes is favoured by 53% of those earning less than $1,600 pw compared to 35% of those earning over $1,600 pw.

Error: