Creating a Climate for Change on Carbon
It’s only months until a price on carbon takes affect so here are some clues from the polling to help Labor though the difficult times ahead.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
44% |
46% |
47% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
59% |
55% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
27% |
29% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped substantially since last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 61% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -29 over the last 4 weeks. This is her lowest rating since September.
75% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).
By gender – men 32% approve/62% disapprove, women 32% approve/60% disapprove.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
36% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
9% |
12% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has changed little over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.
70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.
By gender – men 37% approve/54% disapprove, women 36% approve/49% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
38% |
41% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
84% |
6% |
74% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
4% |
76% |
5% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
12% |
18% |
21% |
40% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 3%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +7% to +3% for Julia Gillard.
Both men and women prefer Julia Gillard 40%/37%.
Approval of Bob Carr
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total approve |
37% |
60% |
23% |
39% |
| Total disapprove |
36% |
15% |
54% |
17% |
| Strongly approve |
7% |
17% |
2% |
7% |
| Approve |
30% |
43% |
21% |
32% |
| Disapprove |
19% |
10% |
27% |
11% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
5% |
27% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
27% |
25% |
22% |
45% |
Opinions of the former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister were split – 37% approved and 36% disapproved.
60% of Labor voters approved and 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.
Respondents from New South Wales were a little more positive – 43% approve and 37% disapprove.
Using Wealth to Influence Opinion and Policy
QA. The Treasurer Wayne Swan has said some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. Do you agree or disagree with the Treasurer’s statement? *
QB. Do you agree or disagree that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. *
|
A. Wayne Swan statement |
B. Unattributed statement |
|||||||
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total agree |
58% |
78% |
36% |
89% |
60% |
67% |
55% |
75% |
| Total disagree |
26% |
6% |
51% |
2% |
24% |
18% |
30% |
14% |
| Strongly agree |
24% |
38% |
9% |
54% |
27% |
36% |
15% |
50% |
| Agree |
34% |
40% |
27% |
35% |
33% |
31% |
40% |
25% |
| Disagree |
15% |
4% |
29% |
2% |
12% |
5% |
15% |
3% |
| Strongly disagree |
11% |
2% |
22% |
- |
12% |
13% |
15% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
16% |
14% |
9% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
11% |
* each question was asked of half the total sample.
There was similar majority agreement with this statement – that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests – whether or not it was attributed to Wayne Swan. When attributed to Wayne Swan 58% agreed and 26% disagreed. When unattributed, 60% agreed and 24% disagreed.
When attributed to Wayne Swan, 78% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters agreed but 51% of Liberal/National voters disagreed.
When unattributed, a majority of voters of all parties agreed – although Labor and Greens voters not as strongly.
Opinion of Mining Tax
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?
|
12 Jul 2010 |
5 Sep 2011 |
21 Nov |
20 Feb 2012 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
50% |
46% |
51% |
55% |
52% |
76% |
33% |
79% |
| Total disapprove |
28% |
34% |
33% |
28% |
34% |
12% |
55% |
12% |
| Strongly approve |
13% |
18% |
18% |
23% |
20% |
36% |
7% |
51% |
| Approve |
37% |
28% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
40% |
26% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
18% |
18% |
20% |
17% |
22% |
9% |
34% |
10% |
| Strongly disapprove |
10% |
16% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
3% |
21% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
22% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
8% |
52% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 34% disapprove. This represents a weakening in support over the last 3 weeks (from net +27% to net +18%) but a similar result to that of November 2011.
Labor voters (76%) and Greens voters (79%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 33%.
Income Level to be Middle Income
Q. What annual income level would you say was “middle income” for a single person?
What annual income level would you say was “middle income” for a family of 2 parents and 2 children?
|
Single Person |
Family |
|||||||
|
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
|
| Less than $40,000 |
6% |
13% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
- |
- |
| $40,000-$59,000 |
31% |
35% |
34% |
28% |
7% |
14% |
5% |
2% |
| $60,000-$79,000 |
38% |
32% |
41% |
47% |
21% |
27% |
25% |
15% |
| $80,000-$99,000 |
15% |
12% |
14% |
17% |
28% |
26% |
33% |
29% |
| $100,000-$119,000 |
3% |
2% |
4% |
3% |
20% |
14% |
21% |
26% |
| $120,000-$149,000 |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
17% |
| $150,000-$199,000 |
* |
- |
- |
1% |
5% |
2% |
4% |
10% |
| $200,000 or more |
* |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
- |
- |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
| median |
$66,000 |
$60,000 |
$65,000 |
$69,000 |
$94,000 |
$83,000 |
$92,000 |
$103,000 |
69% of respondents think that “middle income” for a single person is between $40,00 and $79,000 a year. 38% think it is $60,000-$79,000.
80% of those earning under $1,000 pw think “middle income” for a single person is less than $80,000, while those on more than $1,600 pw are most likely to think it is $60,000-$79,000 (47%). The median (average) income for “middle income” for a single person is $66,000.
Estimates are more broadly spread when it comes to “middle income” families – 69% think it would be between $60,000 and $119,000. 65% think it would be at least $80,000. The median (average) income for “middle income” for a family is $94,000.
Income Level to be Well Off
Q. What annual income level would you say was the minimum to be “well off” for a single person?
What annual income level would you say was the minimum to be “well off” for a family of 2 parents and 2 children?
|
Single Person |
Family |
|||||||
|
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
|
| $40,000 |
9% |
15% |
7% |
5% |
1% |
2% |
* |
1% |
| $60,000 |
26% |
28% |
31% |
23% |
6% |
13% |
5% |
2% |
| $80,000 |
28% |
25% |
27% |
33% |
15% |
21% |
17% |
10% |
| $100,000 |
19% |
15% |
20% |
24% |
17% |
19% |
19% |
15% |
| $120,000 |
7% |
5% |
6% |
9% |
16% |
12% |
19% |
17% |
| $150,000 |
3% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
21% |
16% |
18% |
29% |
| $200,000 |
1% |
* |
1% |
1% |
12% |
5% |
14% |
18% |
| $300,000 |
1% |
2% |
* |
1% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
5% |
| $500,000 |
* |
* |
1% |
- |
2% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
| $1 million |
1% |
1% |
- |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
6% |
4% |
1% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
1% |
| median |
$69,000 |
$63,000 |
$67,000 |
$73,000 |
$111,000 |
$93,000 |
$107,000 |
$123,000 |
63% think that a single person earning $80,000 would be considered “well off”. The average (median) minimum income for a single person to be considered “well off” was $69,000.
55% think that a family earning $120,000 would be considered “well off”. The average (median) minimum income for a family to be considered “well off” was $111,000.
Income Level to be Wealthy
Q. What annual income level would you say was the minimum to be “wealthy” for a single person?
What annual income level would you say was the minimum to be “wealthy” for a family of 2 parents and 2 children?
|
Single Person |
Family |
|||||||
|
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
Total |
Income under $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
|
| $40,000 |
2% |
3% |
1% |
- |
1% |
1% |
- |
- |
| $60,000 |
6% |
10% |
4% |
6% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
* |
| $80,000 |
15% |
17% |
20% |
10% |
4% |
7% |
3% |
2% |
| $100,000 |
21% |
19% |
25% |
23% |
9% |
13% |
10% |
5% |
| $120,000 |
14% |
11% |
15% |
17% |
9% |
10% |
13% |
6% |
| $150,000 |
17% |
18% |
13% |
22% |
19% |
17% |
22% |
20% |
| $200,000 |
10% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
22% |
20% |
16% |
32% |
| $300,000 |
4% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
15% |
10% |
15% |
19% |
| $500,000 |
4% |
3% |
6% |
3% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
7% |
| $1 million |
3% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
| median |
$106,000 |
$102,000 |
$98,000 |
$113,000 |
$159,000 |
$146,000 |
$147,000 |
$182,000 |
58% think that a single person earning $120,000 would be considered “wealthy”. The average (median) minimum income for a single person to be considered “wealthy” was $106,000.
66% think that a family earning $200,000 would be considered “wealthy”. The average (median) minimum income for a family to be considered “wealthy” was $159,000.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 17 June 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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