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  • Dec, 2012

    , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,888 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    12/11/12

    2 weeks ago

    26/11/12

    Last week

    3/12/12

    This week

    10/12/12

    Liberal

    42%

    44%

    44%

    45%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    45%

    47%

    47%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    37%

    36%

    37%

    36%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    10%

    9%

    8%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    8%

    7%

    8%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    52%

    53%

    53%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    48%

    47%

    47%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19
    Jul
    10

    20 Dec

    14 Mar
    11

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 12

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    10 Dec

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    35%

    41%

    41%

    37%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    61%

    56%

    54%

    51%

    49%

    53%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    9%

    7%

    10%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    24%

    26%

    28%

    32%

    34%

    27%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    29%

    22%

    27%

    24%

    25%

    25%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    32%

    34%

    27%

    27%

    24%

    28%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    7%

    12%

    11%

    8%

    10%

    11%

    37% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -8 to -16.

    82% of Labor voters approve (down 3%) and 13% disapprove (up 5%).

    By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/48% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from -16 to -21 and with women from 0 to -10.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan
    10

    5
    Jul

    20 Dec

    14 Mar
    11

    14 Jun

    12 Sep

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 12

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    10 Dec

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    37%

    33%

    33%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    55%

    54%

    58%

    56%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    9%

    6%

    8%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    29%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    27%

    25%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    28%

    25%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    29%

    31%

    30%

    31%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    13%

    9%

    10%

    12%

    33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 56% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -25 to -23 over the last 4 weeks.

    63% (down 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 30% (up 1%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 37% approve/55% disapprove, women 28% approve/56% disapprove. In net terms this represents a small improvement with men from -20 to -18 and with women from -30 to -28.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5
    Jul 10

    14 Mar 11

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 12

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    15 Oct

    12 Nov

    10 Dec

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    37%

    40%

    43%

    45%

    43%

    92%

    6%

    80%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    37%

    37%

    37%

    36%

    32%

    34%

    4%

    71%

    1%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    26%

    24%

    20%

    23%

    23%

    5%

    23%

    19%

    43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).

  • Dec, 2012

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    Change in gas/electricity costs

    Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

    Total increased

    86%

    Total decreased

    2%

    Increased a lot

    45%

    Increased a moderate amount

    26%

    Increased a little

    15%

    Stayed about the same

    8%

    Decreased a little

    1%

    Decreased a moderate amount

    *

    Decreased a lot

    1%

    Don’t know

    5%

    86% say their power costs have increased over the last few years including 45% who say their costs have increased a lot.

    Those most likely to say their power costs have increased a lot were aged 45-54 (59%) and Liberal/National voters (50%).

    There were no substantial differences across income groups.

    88% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 47% who said they have increased a lot.

    In comparison, 79% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 40% who said they have increased a lot.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Change in gas/electricity usage

    Q. And as far as you know, over the last few years, has your gas and/or electricity usage increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

    Total increased

    54%

    Total decreased

    16%

    Increased a lot

    24%

    Increased a moderate amount

    15%

    Increased a little

    15%

    Stayed about the same

    26%

    Decreased a little

    11%

    Decreased a moderate amount

    3%

    Decreased a lot

    2%

    Don’t know

    4%

    54% say their power usage has increased over the last few years, 16% say it has decreased and 26% think it has stayed much the same.

    Change in usage was similar across all ages except the 65+ group where 39% thought their usage had increased, 22% decreased and 38% stayed much the same.

    Among Greens voters, 42% said their usage had increased, 24% decreased and 30% stayed much the same. There were no substantial differences across income groups.

    56% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power usage had increased compared with 45% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Responsibility for gas/electricity prices

    Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The Federal Government

    27%

    17%

    40%

    15%

    The State Government

    16%

    18%

    14%

    18%

    The power companies

    45%

    54%

    37%

    56%

    Don’t know

    13%

    11%

    9%

    11%

    45% believe that power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 27% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 16% State Governments.

    40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible. Answers were similar across the major states – NSW, Victoria, Queensland.

  • Dec, 2012

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    Operation of power generation and distribution

    Q. Which is closer to your view? 

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Power generation and distribution should be operated by private companies, because they are more efficient and competition will keep prices down

    24%

    20%

    31%

    9%

    Power generation and distribution should be operated by government, because it is not motivated by profit and will keep our energy supply secure

    56%

    66%

    52%

    68%

    Don’t know

    19%

    13%

    17%

    23%

    56% agree that power generation and distribution should be operated by government and 24% think they should be operated by private companies.

    Liberal/National voters (31%) were most likely to support operation by private companies while highest support for Government operation came from Labor voters (66%), Greens voters (68%) and respondents aged 45+ (63%).

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