TRENDS: Who loves a nanny state?
Peter Lewis talks us through our love for a nanny state — as long as it doesn’t overstep the mark
The metaphorical nannies are out to control us; to mollycoddle and corrupt us; to intervene and suppress the free spirit in those of us who just want to puff on a ciggie or punt on a pokie or jump off a cliff because the other kids are doing it.
But while collectively we denounce a controlling nanny state, EMC polling shows that most of us actually like a designated grown up. Peter Lewis talks us through the details on 3Q.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,909 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 10/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
Last week 30/4/12 |
This week 7/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
29% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
The Australian Economy
Q. Thinking about the state of the world economy, how do you think the Australian economy has performed over the last few years compared to other countries?
|
15 Aug 11 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
70% |
66% |
80% |
60% |
73% |
| Total worse |
10% |
15% |
8% |
19% |
10% |
| A lot better |
31% |
29% |
49% |
19% |
38% |
| A little better |
39% |
37% |
31% |
41% |
35% |
| About the same |
16% |
16% |
12% |
20% |
17% |
| A little worse |
7% |
9% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
| A lot worse |
3% |
6% |
2% |
9% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
66% think that Australia’s economy has performed better than other countries over the last few years, 16% say about the same and 15% think it has been worse. This represents a shift from net +60 to net +51 since this question was previous asked in August last year.
There were no substantial differences across demographic groups although those on higher incomes are a little more likely to believe it has performed better – 71% of those on incomes over $1,600pw compared to 61% of those earning under $1,000pw.
Trust to deal with GFC
Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?
|
15 Aug 11 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Labor Party |
31% |
25% |
68% |
2% |
42% |
| The Liberal Party |
40% |
42% |
5% |
83% |
5% |
| No difference |
20% |
23% |
19% |
11% |
39% |
| Don’t know |
9% |
10% |
8% |
4% |
14% |
If there was another GFC, 42% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 25% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a shift to the Liberal Party from net +9% to net +17%
The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were men (47%), aged 55+ (48%), full-time workers (50%) and income over $1,600 pw (50%).
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
23% |
39% |
18% |
22% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
46% |
31% |
59% |
30% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
7% |
1% |
1% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
21% |
32% |
17% |
21% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
31% |
27% |
37% |
22% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
4% |
22% |
8% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
28% |
19% |
41% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
8% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since March. The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined 2 points to 23%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months remained at 46%.
Labor voters are optimistic overall – 39% better/31% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 59% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.
There was little difference across demographic groups.
Politicians Accused of an Offence
Q. In general, if a politician is accused of an offence, do you think they should stand down from the positions they hold or should they be allowed to continue in their positions until a decision is made about their guilt or innocence?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should stand down from their positions |
62% |
50% |
73% |
46% |
| Should be allowed to continue in their positions |
27% |
41% |
20% |
39% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
9% |
8% |
15% |
62% think that if a politician is accused of an offence, they should stand down from the positions they hold and 27% think should they be allowed to continue in their positions until a decision is made about their guilt or innocence.
All demographic and voter groups were more likely to think they should stand down – although Labor (41%) and Greens (39%) voters recorded the highest support for allowing them to continue. Older respondents were more likely to think they should stand down – those aged 55+ split 72% stand down/23% continue and those aged 18-34 split 51% stand down/36% continue.
Bank Regulation
Q. Thinking about banks in Australia, would you support or oppose the Government taking the following actions on banking?
|
Total support |
Total oppose |
Strongly support |
Support |
Oppose |
Strongly oppose |
Don’t know |
|
| Establishing a Government-owned bank |
55% |
23% |
21% |
34% |
15% |
8% |
22% |
| Only permitting banks to change interest rates in line with Reserve Bank rates. |
74% |
16% |
37% |
37% |
11% |
5% |
10% |
| Capping bank CEO’s salaries. |
81% |
12% |
55% |
26% |
9% |
3% |
7% |
| Ensuring bank fees are not higher than the actual cost of the service |
90% |
5% |
64% |
26% |
4% |
1% |
5% |
| Imposing a super profits tax on banks (like the mining tax) |
59% |
21% |
34% |
25% |
16% |
5% |
20% |
A majority of respondents supported all listed actions on banking. In particular, 90% supported regulating bank fees, 81% supported capping CEO salaries and 74% supported making banks pass on Reserve Bank interest rate changes.
There was majority support for all actions from both Labor and Liberal/National voters – although support tended to be stronger from Labor voters.
Downloading from the Internet
Q. Do you or does anyone in your household download films, music or television shows via the internet for free?
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
Income <$600pw |
Income $600 - 1,000pw |
Income $1,000 - 1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ pw |
|
| Yes |
32% |
34% |
31% |
48% |
28% |
19% |
26% |
30% |
33% |
40% |
| No |
61% |
60% |
62% |
42% |
66% |
76% |
72% |
63% |
61% |
54% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
7% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
32% of respondents said they download films, music or television shows via the internet for free.
Those most likely to download were aged under 35 (48%) and those on higher incomes (40% of respondents on $1,600+ pw).
Main Reason for Free Downloading
Q. What is the main reason you download films, music or television shows via the internet for free?
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
Income < $600 pw |
Income $600- 1,000 pw |
Income $1,000- 1,600 pw |
Income $1,600+ pw |
|
| Wish to access TV shows or movies not yet available in Australia |
37% |
35% |
39% |
48% |
31% |
19% |
20% |
34% |
43% |
42% |
| Just because it’s free |
18% |
17% |
20% |
18% |
20% |
13% |
9% |
19% |
25% |
18% |
| Accessing content that way is convenient |
21% |
23% |
18% |
20% |
21% |
23% |
33% |
19% |
18% |
18% |
| Films and movies are too expensive |
9% |
12% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
6% |
14% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
| Video formats from providers like iTunes are too restrictive |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
- |
- |
2% |
1% |
1% |
| Other reason |
12% |
11% |
12% |
4% |
13% |
31% |
23% |
14% |
3% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
- |
3% |
- |
2% |
6% |
- |
15 |
1% |
1% |
Based on 330 respondents who said they download films, music or television shows via the internet for free
37% said they download for free because they wish to access TV shows or movies not yet available in Australia, 21% because it is convenient and 18% just because it’s free. Only 9% download for free because films and videos are too expensive.
48% of under 35’s (the age group most likely to download) do it because they wish to access TV shows or movies not yet available in Australia.
Whether Pay for Downloading
Q. If television shows, movies and music were all made available at the same time around the world and for a low price, would you purchase and download them, pay for a subscription that enabled you to download them or continue to download them for free?
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
Income <$600 pw |
Income $600- 1,000 pw |
Income $1,000- 1,600 pw |
Income $1,600+ pw |
|
| Purchase and download them |
22% |
18% |
25% |
26% |
20% |
10% |
24% |
18% |
18% |
25% |
| Pay a subscription |
20% |
26% |
13% |
23% |
19% |
16% |
29% |
12% |
21% |
23% |
| Continue to download free versions |
41% |
44% |
39% |
39% |
43% |
48% |
25% |
57% |
44% |
38% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
11% |
23% |
12% |
18% |
26% |
22% |
13% |
17% |
14% |
Based on 330 respondents who said they download films, music or television shows via the internet for free
42% said they would be prepared to pay for downloads If television shows, movies and music were all made available at the same time around the world and for a low price – 22% via individual purchase and 20% via subscription. 41% said they would continue to download for free.
49% of under 35’s and 48% of those on higher incomes ($1,600+ pw) said they would be prepared to pay for downloads.
Support for Levy on Financial Transactions
Q. A number of governments around the world and international organisations have argued for a financial transactions tax – which is a small levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares which could raise 480 billion euros (about $600 billion) globally. The idea behind this levy is that this would be a good way for the banking sector to contribute back to society for their part in the financial crisis.
Would you support or oppose such a levy?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
59% |
66% |
57% |
63% |
| Total oppose |
16% |
12% |
22% |
10% |
| Strongly support |
20% |
26% |
15% |
21% |
| Support |
39% |
40% |
42% |
42% |
| Oppose |
10% |
7% |
13% |
7% |
| Strongly oppose |
6% |
5% |
9% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
22% |
21% |
27% |
59% supported the idea of a levy on large financial transactions and 16% opposed.
A majority of all demographic and voter groups supported the concept. Highest support came from Labor voters (66%) and men (65%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 17 June 2013
In this week's report:
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Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
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Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
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