Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,904 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 5/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 19/3/12 |
Last week 26/3/12 |
This week 2/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
32% |
34% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
54% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
46% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Opinion of Superannuation Increase
Q. Do you support or oppose the Federal Government’s plan to increase superannuation payments from nine per cent to 12 per cent by 2019-20?
|
23 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
69% |
69% |
80% |
66% |
72% |
| Total oppose |
13% |
13% |
7% |
19% |
7% |
| Strongly support |
21% |
29% |
43% |
25% |
25% |
| Support |
48% |
40% |
37% |
41% |
47% |
| Oppose |
10% |
8% |
4% |
12% |
3% |
| Strongly oppose |
3% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
18% |
13% |
16% |
22% |
69% support the Federal Government’s plan to increase superannuation payments from nine per cent to 12 per cent by 2019-20 and 13% oppose – no change since this question was asked in May last year. However, the strength of support has increased with 29% strongly supporting the measure (up 8%).
Support is higher for those aged 35-54 (76%), full-time workers (76%) and those earning over $1,600pw (77%).
Cost of Superannuation for Employers
Q. In the next two years employer superannuation payments will increase by 0.25% per year, and then by 0.5% each year up to 2019 when it reaches 12%. Do you agree or disagree that these increases are reasonable and affordable for employers or should employees bear the cost by accepting lower pay rises?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| This is a reasonable and affordable cost for employers |
58% |
68% |
50% |
62% |
| Employees should bear the cost by accepting lower pay rises |
19% |
12% |
26% |
14% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
20% |
23% |
24% |
58% think that the yearly superannuation increases are a reasonable and affordable cost for employers and 19% think employees should bear the cost by accepting lower pay rises.
Those most likely to think the increases are a reasonable and affordable cost for employers were aged 25-44 (67%), full-time workers (66%) and those earning over $1,0000pw (64%).
Attributes to describe the Prime Minister
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
|
5 Jul 10 |
4 Oct 10 |
7 Feb 11 |
27 Jun 11 |
2 Apr 12 |
Difference |
|
| Intelligent |
87% |
81% |
75% |
73% |
61% |
-12% |
| Hard-working |
89% |
82% |
76% |
75% |
65% |
-10% |
| A capable leader |
72% |
59% |
52% |
42% |
38% |
-4% |
| Arrogant |
37% |
39% |
44% |
48% |
53% |
+5% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
35% |
44% |
50% |
60% |
65% |
+5% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
68% |
55% |
52% |
44% |
41% |
-3% |
| Visionary |
48% |
38% |
30% |
26% |
25% |
-1% |
| Superficial |
51% |
52% |
54% |
+2% |
||
| Good in a crisis |
61% |
46% |
46% |
41% |
36% |
-5% |
| Narrow-minded |
28% |
35% |
43% |
46% |
53% |
+7% |
| More honest than most politicians |
45% |
37% |
37% |
29% |
26% |
-3% |
| Trustworthy |
49% |
42% |
40% |
30% |
25% |
-5% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (65%), out of touch with ordinary people (65%) and intelligent (61%).
Major changes since this question was asked in June last year were decreases for intelligent (-12%), hard-working (-10%) and an increase of 7% for narrow-minded.
Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 10 |
4 Oct 10 |
7 Feb 11 |
27 Jun 11 |
2 Apr 12 |
Change |
|
| Intelligent |
70% |
71% |
64% |
61% |
56% |
-5% |
| Hard-working |
76% |
78% |
72% |
75% |
68% |
-7% |
| A capable leader |
47% |
52% |
48% |
45% |
41% |
-4% |
| Arrogant |
59% |
60% |
58% |
60% |
61% |
+1% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
57% |
53% |
54% |
57% |
54% |
-3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
53% |
50% |
48% |
49% |
+1% |
| Visionary |
32% |
31% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
-1% |
| Superficial |
|
|
45% |
49% |
49% |
- |
| Good in a crisis |
40% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
36% |
-4% |
| Narrow-minded |
56% |
53% |
51% |
54% |
54% |
- |
| More honest than most politicians |
33% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
-2% |
| Trustworthy |
33% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
- |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (68%), arrogant (61%) and intelligent (56%).
Major changes since this question was asked in June last year were decreases for hard-working (-7%) and intelligent (-5%).
Comparison of Leader Attributes
|
Julia Gillard |
Tony Abbott |
Difference |
|
| Intelligent |
61% |
56% |
+5% |
| Hard-working |
65% |
68% |
-3% |
| A capable leader |
38% |
41% |
-3% |
| Arrogant |
53% |
61% |
-8% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
65% |
54% |
+11% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
41% |
49% |
-8% |
| Visionary |
25% |
26% |
-1% |
| Superficial |
54% |
49% |
+5% |
| Good in a crisis |
36% |
36% |
- |
| Narrow-minded |
53% |
54% |
-1% |
| More honest than most politicians |
26% |
30% |
-4% |
| Trustworthy |
25% |
32% |
-7% |
Julia Gillard rates higher than Tony Abbott on out of touch with ordinary people (+11%), intelligent (+5%) and superficial (+5%).
She rates lower than Tony Abbott on arrogant (-8%), understands the problems facing Australia (-8%) and trustworthy (-7%).
Size of Government
Q. Overall, do you think Government in Australia is too large and tries to do too much?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Government is too large |
44% |
32% |
55% |
32% |
| Government is not too large |
28% |
44% |
20% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
28% |
24% |
25% |
37% |
44% think that Government in Australia is too large and tries to do too much and 28% think it is not too large.
Those most likely to think Government is too large were men (55%), aged 55+ (58%), and Liberal/National voters (55%).
Those most likely to think Government is not too large were aged under 35 (36%) and Labor voters (44%).
Type of Government
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| An active Government is necessary to provide important public services, and to protect ordinary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups. |
67% |
82% |
59% |
82% |
| We don’t need big government and extensive regulation of business and finance to take care of these matters: the market itself can deal with many of these issues on their own. |
20% |
10% |
28% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
8% |
13% |
8% |
67% agree more that an active Government is necessary and 20% agree more with the view that the market can deal with many issues.
Strongest support for an active Government came from Labor and Greens voters (82%), women (70%) and aged under 25 (77%).
Role of Government
Q. For each of the following issues, do you think the Government does too much, too little or just about the right amount:
|
Too much |
Too little |
About right |
Don’t know |
|
| Providing quality health care services |
2% |
74% |
19% |
5% |
| Protecting citizens from industrial and other kinds of pollution. |
10% |
43% |
36% |
11% |
| Making sure the banks and other large financial institutions operate honestly and treat their clients fairly |
3% |
62% |
28% |
6% |
| Making sure that the roads, bridges and other public transportation facilities are in good repair and safe. |
1% |
63% |
30% |
5% |
| Ensuring that there is adequate, affordable and accessible public transport. |
2% |
67% |
25% |
6% |
| Ensuring that our population is protected from crime, terrorism and other threats. |
5% |
47% |
41% |
7% |
| Providing a quality education system |
2% |
54% |
37% |
7% |
Respondents were more likely to think the Government does too little on each of the issues measured.
In particular, they think the Government does too little in terms of health care services (74%), adequate, affordable and accessible public transport (67%), roads, bridges and other public transportation (63%) and making sure the banks and other large financial institutions operate honestly and treat their clients fairly (62%).
Issues over which they were more divided were protecting citizens from industrial and other kinds of pollution (46% about right/too much) and ensuring that our population is protected from crime, terrorism and other threats (46% about right/too much).
Appropriate Police Responses
Q. There is a debate in many parts of Australia on the appropriate response of police to a range of situations.
In your opinion which of the following are appropriate responses for police in the following situations? (Version A – asked of half the sample)
|
Appropriate police responses |
|||||||
|
Situation |
Firearm |
Taser |
Capsicum spray |
Baton |
Physical restraint |
Verbal response |
Don’t know |
| Police confronted with an armed individual |
67% |
42% |
30% |
20% |
26% |
23% |
6% |
| Police confronted with a drug (eg ice amphetamines) or alcohol affected individual |
10% |
44% |
47% |
22% |
43% |
26% |
5% |
| Police confronted with a mentally ill individual (eg schizophrenic episode) |
6% |
31% |
39% |
15% |
48% |
34% |
7% |
| Police confronted with a gang or mob |
47% |
44% |
43% |
33% |
32% |
26% |
9% |
A substantial proportion of respondents think that firearms are an appropriate police response when confronted with an armed individual (67%) or confronted with a gang or mob (47%).
Tasers are more likely to be considered appropriate when confronted with a drug or alcohol affected individual (44%), a gang or mob (44%) or an armed individual (42%).
Capsicum spray is more likely to be considered appropriate when confronted with a drug or alcohol affected individual (47%) or a gang or mob (43%).
Physical restraint is thought to be more appropriate to situations where police are confronted with a mentally ill individual (48%) or a drug or alcohol affected individual (43%).
Most Appropriate Police Response
Q. There is a debate in many parts of Australia on the appropriate response of police to a range of situations.
In your opinion which of the following is the most appropriate response for police in the following situations? (Version B – asked of half the sample).
|
Most appropriate police response |
|||||||
|
Situation |
Firearm |
Taser |
Capsicum spray |
Baton |
Physical restraint |
Verbal response |
Don’t know |
| Police confronted with an armed individual |
55% |
25% |
7% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
8% |
| Police confronted with a drug (eg ice amphetamines) or alcohol affected individual |
5% |
37% |
28% |
3% |
18% |
2% |
7% |
| Police confronted with a mentally ill individual (eg schizophrenic episode) |
2% |
24% |
24% |
1% |
31% |
10% |
7% |
| Police confronted with a gang or mob |
39% |
19% |
19% |
8% |
3% |
2% |
9% |
A firearm was considered to be the most appropriate police response when confronted with an armed individual (55%) or a gang or mob (39%).
When confronted with a drug or alcohol affected individual the most appropriate responses were thought to be taser (37%) and capsicum spray (28%).
When confronted with a mentally ill individual the most appropriate responses were thought to be physical restraint (31%), taser (24%) and capsicum spray (24%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
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