Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 9, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,778 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 11/11/14

2 weeks ago

25/11/14

Last week

2/12/14

This week

9/12/14

Liberal

 

36%

38%

37%

35%

National

4%

3%

3%

4%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

40%

40%

39%

Labor

33.4%

38%

39%

40%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

8%

8%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 11/11/14

2 weeks ago

25/11/14

Last week

2/12/14

This week

9/12/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

53%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Sep 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Oct 2014

Nov 2014

Total
approve

32%

6%

75%

9%

23%

 

41%

40%

35%

35%

40%

39%

Total dis-
approve

55%

89%

15%

84%

65%

 

36%

47%

58%

52%

48%

50%

Strongly approve

8%

1%

22%

1%

1%

14%

11%

10%

9%

10%

11%

Approve

24%

5%

53%

8%

22%

27%

29%

25%

26%

30%

28%

Disapprove

22%

27%

13%

23%

35%

13%

20%

18%

22%

22%

24%

Strongly disapprove

33%

62%

2%

61%

30%

23%

27%

40%

30%

26%

26%

Don’t know

12%

4%

10%

7%

12%

23%

12%

7%

13%

11%

10%

55% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – up 5% since the last time this question was asked in November – and 32% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (down 7%). This represents a change in net rating from -11 to -23.

75% (down 10%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 15% (up 7%) disapproving. 89% of Labor voters and 84% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 36% approve/51% disapprove and women 27% approve/61% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Nov 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Oct 2014

Nov 2014

Total approve

35%

64%

19%

43%

22%

31%

32%

38%

35%

35%

37%

Total disapprove

39%

15%

62%

30%

52%

27%

39%

40%

36%

36%

38%

Strongly approve

7%

16%

1%

12%

3%

5%

4%

7%

5%

5%

6%

Approve

28%

48%

18%

31%

19%

26%

28%

31%

30%

30%

31%

Disapprove

23%

12%

28%

25%

32%

17%

24%

22%

22%

24%

25%

Strongly disapprove

16%

3%

34%

5%

20%

10%

15%

18%

14%

12%

13%

Don’t know

26%

21%

18%

28%

26%

43%

29%

22%

29%

29%

25%

35% (down 2% since November) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 39% (up 1%) disapprove – for a net rating of -4 (down 3%).

64% (up 1%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 15% (down 2%) disapprove.

39% of men and 32% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 42% of men and 35% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Oct 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Oct 2014

Nov 2014

Tony Abbott

31%

4%

74%

3%

22%

41%

39%

36%

35%

38%

36%

Bill Shorten

36%

73%

6%

62%

24%

22%

33%

40%

36%

32%

34%

Don’t know

33%

23%

20%

34%

54%

37%

28%

24%

30%

30%

29%

31% (down 5% since November) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

35% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 35% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Bill Shorten 37% to 27%.

Performance of politicians

Dec 9, 2014

 Q. How would you rate the performance of the following people over the last 12 months?

 

Total good

Total poor

Net rating

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor poor

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

Tony Abbott – Prime Minister

27%

49%

-22

8%

19%

17%

16%

33%

7%

Bill Shorten – Opposition leader

26%

31%

-5

7%

19%

30%

17%

14%

13%

Joe Hockey – Treasurer

22%

46%

-24

5%

17%

23%

16%

30%

10%

Clive Palmer – leader of PUP

9%

59%

-50

2%

7%

22%

21%

38%

11%

Christine Milne – leader of the Greens

16%

39%

-23

4%

12%

27%

14%

25%

19%

Julie Bishop – Foreign Minister

47%

19%

+28

23%

24%

22%

9%

10%

12%

The Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop was the only politician measured with a positive rating – 47% rated her performance as good and 19% poor. Bill Shorten was the best of the others with a net rating of -5. Clive Palmer’s performance was rated very poorly (-50) while Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Christine Milne received similar net ratings.

Tony Abbott received a net rating of +50 from Liberal/National voters, Bill Shorten scored +42 with Labor voters and Christine Milne scored +36 with Greens voters.

Among Liberal/National voters Julie Bishop’s net rating was +61 and Joe Hockey’s +35.

Important issues

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Which of the following issues are the most important for the Federal Government to address over the next 12 months?

 

Total

 

Most import-ant

2nd most import-ant

3rd most import-ant

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Improving our health system

47%

14%

18%

15%

53%

46%

34%

44%

Reducing unemployment

37%

12%

13%

12%

38%

33%

30%

43%

Reducing the budget deficit

32%

16%

8%

8%

15%

60%

14%

20%

Tax avoidance by big companies

27%

9%

9%

9%

29%

27%

30%

31%

Protecting workers wages and conditions

24%

8%

7%

9%

34%

16%

10%

30%

National security and terrorism

23%

8%

7%

8%

16%

35%

6%

32%

More funds for education

23%

6%

8%

9%

26%

14%

30%

26%

Housing affordability

22%

7%

8%

7%

27%

15%

15%

27%

Addressing climate change

20%

9%

7%

4%

25%

8%

60%

11%

Investing in public transport

14%

3%

5%

6%

14%

11%

17%

12%

Protecting the environment

13%

3%

5%

5%

15%

5%

45%

11%

Investing in roads

10%

3%

2%

5%

6%

15%

4%

12%

Free trade agreements

6%

1%

3%

2%

2%

12%

5%

3%

The most important issues for the Federal Government to address over the next 12 months were improving our health system (47%), reducing unemployment (37%), reducing the budget deficit (32%) and tax avoidance by big companies (27%).

For Labor voters the most important issues were improving our health system (53%), reducing unemployment (38%) and protecting workers wages and conditions (34%). For Liberal/National voters the most important issues were reducing the budget deficit (60%), improving our health system (46%) and national security and terrorism (35%).

Last 12 months

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

 

Total good

Total poor

Net score

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor poor

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

 

Net score Dec 2013

The Australian economy

20%

33%

-13

1%

19%

39%

26%

7%

7%

-13

Australian politics in general

12%

65%

-53

1%

11%

25%

32%

23%

7%

-62

Large companies and corporations

30%

16%

+14

6%

24%

38%

12%

4%

16%

-9

Small business

13%

41%

-28

1%

12%

32%

33%

8%

14%

-45

Trade unions

11%

29%

-18

2%

9%

38%

20%

9%

23%

-25

The average Australian

17%

40%

-23

1%

16%

36%

28%

12%

7%

-22

Your personal financial situation

23%

34%

-11

2%

21%

39%

22%

12%

4%

-8

Your workplace (employees only)

26%

31%

-5

2%

24%

38%

24%

7%

4%

+8

You and your family overall

29%

26%

+3

3%

26%

41%

19%

7%

5%

+18

Respondents believed that this year has been a poor for all groups except large companies and corporations (+14) and you and your family overall (+3). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-53), small business (-28) and the average Australian (-23).

Relative to 2013 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered better for politics in general (up 9), large corporations and businesses (up 23) and small businesses (up 17) but worse for their workplace (down 13) and you and your family overall (down 15).

Expectations for 2015

Dec 9, 2014

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2015 will be a good or bad year for each of the following? 

 

Total good

Total poor

Net score

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor poor

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

 

Net score Dec 2013

The Australian economy

23%

33%

-10

2%

21%

29%

23%

10%

16%

-10

Australian politics in general

15%

44%

-29

1%

14%

25%

27%

17%

15%

-24

Large companies and corporations

30%

17%

+13

5%

25%

33%

13%

4%

19%

-

Small business

15%

32%

-17

1%

14%

34%

24%

8%

18%

-24

Trade unions

11%

27%

-16

1%

10%

37%

19%

8%

25%

-26

The average Australian

18%

35%

-17

1%

17%

33%

25%

10%

14%

-9

Your personal financial situation

26%

26%

-

3%

23%

36%

17%

9%

12%

+6

Your workplace

20%

20%

-

3%

17%

35%

13%

7%

26%

+15

You and your family overall

30%

20%

+10

4%

26%

37%

13%

7%

12%

+25

Overall, there was a positive outlook for large companies and corporations (net +13) and you and your family overall (+10). Expectations were negative for politics in general (-29), small businesses (-17), the average Australian (-17) and trade unions (-16).

Compared to last year, respondents were more optimistic about large businesses and corporations (up 13), small businesses (up 7) and trade unions (up 10) but feeling less optimistic about their workplace (down 15), you and your family overall (down 15%) and the average Australian (down 8).

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