Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 14, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,805 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 16/9/14

2 weeks ago

30/9/14

Last week

7/10/14

This week

14/10/14

Liberal

 

35%

37%

38%

38%

National

3%

2%

2%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

40%

40%

41%

Labor

33.4%

38%

39%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

4%

3%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

8%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 16/9/14

2 weeks ago

30/9/14

Last week

7/10/14

This week

14/10/14

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

53%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Oct 14, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Green

Vote Other

 

Tony Abbott as Opp Leader

Sep 2013

Tony Abbott as PM

Sep 2013

 Mar 14

June 14

July
14

Aug 14

Sep 14

Total
approve

40%

12%

87%

14%

23%

 

40%

41%

40%

35%

34%

37%

35%

Total dis-approve

48%

82%

8%

73%

61%

 

49%

36%

47%

58%

58%

54%

52%

Strongly approve

10%

2%

26%

-

2%

13%

14%

11%

10%

8%

13%

9%

Approve

30%

10%

61%

14%

21%

27%

27%

29%

25%

26%

24%

26%

Dis-
approve

22%

35%

7%

26%

33%

19%

13%

20%

18%

22%

19%

22%

Strongly dis-approve

26%

47%

1%

47%

28%

30%

23%

27%

40%

36%

35%

30%

Don’t
know

11%

6%

6%

13%

16%

10%

23%

12%

7%

7%

9%

13%

48% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – down 4% since the last time this question was asked in September – and 40% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (up 5%). This represents a change in net rating from -17 to -8, Tony Abbott’s best rating since April.

87% (up 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 8% (down 1%) disapproving. 82% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 44% approve/48% disapprove and women 38% approve/49% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Oct 14, 2014

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Nov 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Aug 2014

Sep 2014

Total approve

35%

61%

24%

36%

17%

31%

32%

38%

36%

34%

35%

Total disapprove

36%

17%

53%

36%

54%

27%

39%

40%

39%

40%

36%

Strongly approve

5%

11%

2%

-

3%

5%

4%

7%

6%

7%

5%

Approve

30%

50%

22%

36%

14%

26%

28%

31%

30%

27%

30%

Disapprove

24%

14%

29%

31%

45%

17%

24%

22%

22%

21%

22%

Strongly disapprove

12%

3%

24%

5%

9%

10%

15%

18%

17%

19%

14%

Don’t know

29%

23%

22%

28%

30%

43%

29%

22%

25%

25%

29%

35% (no change since August) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 36% (no change) disapprove.

61% (no change) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 17% (up 1%) disapprove.

40% of men and 31% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 39% of men and 33% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Oct 14, 2014

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Oct 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Aug 2014

Sep 2014

Tony Abbott

38%

7%

85%

12%

29%

41%

39%

36%

34%

37%

35%

Bill Shorten

32%

63%

2%

56%

30%

22%

33%

40%

37%

36%

36%

Don’t know

30%

29%

13%

32%

41%

37%

28%

24%

29%

27%

30%

38% (up 3% since September) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (down 4%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister. This is Tony Abbott’s best figure since April.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 41% to 33% and women prefer Tony Abbott 36% to 30%.

Gap between rich and poor

Oct 14, 2014

Q. In the past 10 years, do you think the gap between rich people and everyone else in Australia has increased, decreased or stayed about the same?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Income less than $600 pw

Income $600-$1,000 pw

Income $1,000-$1,600 pw

Income over $1,600 pw

Total increased

72%

86%

58%

81%

79%

81%

73%

76%

67%

Total decreased

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

3%

4%

2%

1%

Increased a lot

38%

50%

26%

34%

54%

50%

39%

36%

33%

Increased a little

34%

36%

32%

47%

25%

31%

34%

40%

34%

Stayed much the same

20%

11%

33%

10%

12%

10%

17%

16%

28%

Decreased a little

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

Decreased a lot

*

-

*

1%

1%

1%

2%

-

*

Don’t know

7%

2%

5%

6%

8%

7%

6%

7%

4%

72% think that the gap between rich people and everyone else in Australia has increased over the past ten years. Only 22% think it has decreased or stayed the same.

Those most likely to think it had increased were Labor voters (86%) Greens voters (81%), aged 55+ (77%) and those earning less than $600 pw (81%).

Government action to reduce gap between rich and poor

Oct 14, 2014

Q. How much, if anything, should the Government do to reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Income less than $600 pw

Income $600-$1,000 pw

Income $1,000-$1,600 pw

Income over $1,600 pw

Total a lot/some

64%

78%

51%

69%

80%

67%

70%

65%

61%

A lot

30%

47%

13%

31%

40%

39%

37%

29%

24%

Some

34%

31%

38%

38%

40%

28%

33%

36%

37%

Not much

16%

10%

25%

18%

7%

13%

12%

17%

19%

Nothing at all

7%

6%

12%

3%

3%

4%

9%

8%

10%

Don’t know

12%

7%

12%

10%

10%

17%

10%

10%

10%

64% think that the Government should do a lot or some to reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else.

Those most likely to think the Government should act were Labor voters (78%), other voters (80%), aged under 35 (68%) and those earning $600-$1,000 pw (70%).

Why a person is rich

Oct 14, 2014

Q. Which has more to do with why a person is rich?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Income less than $600 pw

Income $600-$1,000 pw

Income $1,000-$1,600 pw

Income over $1,600 pw

Because he or she worked harder than others

28%

16%

45%

14%

23%

18%

24%

29%

34%

Because he or she had more advantages

56%

72%

41%

69%

54%

59%

63%

58%

52%

Don’t know

16%

12%

14%

17%

23%

23%

13%

14%

14%

56% think that a person is more likely to be rich because he or she had more advantages and 28% think it is more likely to be because he or she worked harder than others.

Those most likely to think it is because he or she worked harder than others were Liberal/National voters (45%), aged 65+ (37%) and those on incomes over $1,600 pw (34%).

Reducing the gap between rich and poor

Oct 14, 2014

Q. Which of the following would do more to reduce the gap between the rich and poor in Australia?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Income less than $600 pw

Income $600-$1,000 pw

Income $1,000-$1,600 pw

Income over $1,600 pw

Raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations to increase support for those on low incomes

57%

71%

41%

74%

67%

71%

60%

62%

52%

Lowering taxes on the wealthy and corporations to encourage investment and economic growth

18%

12%

30%

12%

13%

12%

14%

19%

25%

Don’t know

25%

17%

29%

13%

20%

17%

27%

19%

22%

57% support raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations to increase support for those on low incomes and 18% support lowering taxes on the wealthy and corporations to encourage investment and economic growth.

Those most likely to support increasing taxes on the wealthy and corporations were Greens voters (74%), Labor voters 71%) and those earning less than $600 pw (71%).

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