Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 10, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? 

Sample size = 1,780 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

2 weeks ago 27/1/15

Last week

3/2/15

This week 10/2/15

Liberal

 

36%

35%

36%

National

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

38%

39%

Labor

33.4%

41%

41%

41%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

2%

3%

3%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

2 weeks ago 27/1/15

Last week

3/2/15

This week 10/2/15

Liberal National

53.5%

46%

46%

46%

Labor

46.5%

54%

54%

54%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Sep 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Dec 2014

Jan 2015

Total approve

29%

7%

65%

9%

20%

 

41%

40%

35%

35%

32%

37%

Total disapprove

62%

89%

29%

86%

71%

 

36%

47%

58%

52%

55%

53%

Strongly approve

7%

1%

16%

6%

2%

14%

11%

10%

9%

8%

9%

Approve

22%

6%

49%

3%

18%

27%

29%

25%

26%

24%

28%

Disapprove

26%

24%

25%

23%

37%

13%

20%

18%

22%

22%

23%

Strongly disapprove

36%

65%

4%

63%

34%

23%

27%

40%

30%

33%

30%

Don’t know

9%

4%

6%

5%

9%

23%

12%

7%

13%

12%

10%

62% of respondents disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – up 9% since the last time this question was asked in January – and 29% approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing (down 8%). This represents a change in net rating from -16 to -33 – his worst since becoming leader of the Liberal Party.

65% (down 18%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 29% (up 19%) disapproving. 89% of Labor voters and 86% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 34% approve/61% disapprove and women 24% approve/64% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/
Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Nov 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Dec 2014

Jan 2015

Total approve

33%

64%

15%

36%

15%

31%

32%

38%

35%

35%

39%

Total disapprove

38%

12%

66%

24%

58%

27%

39%

40%

36%

39%

33%

Strongly approve

8%

19%

1%

4%

3%

5%

4%

7%

5%

7%

7%

Approve

25%

45%

14%

32%

12%

26%

28%

31%

30%

28%

32%

Disapprove

21%

10%

30%

19%

36%

17%

24%

22%

22%

23%

19%

Strongly disapprove

17%

2%

36%

5%

22%

10%

15%

18%

14%

16%

14%

Don’t know

29%

24%

19%

41%

27%

43%

29%

22%

29%

26%

28%

33% (down 6% since January) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 38% (up 5%) disapprove – for a net rating of -5 (down 11%).

64% (down 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 12% (no change) disapprove.

38% of men and 29% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 43% of men and 34% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Oct 2013

Mar 2014

June 2014

Sep 2014

Dec 2104

Jan 2015

Tony Abbott

31%

5%

75%

4%

22%

41%

39%

36%

35%

31%

35%

Bill Shorten

39%

78%

6%

59%

24%

22%

33%

40%

36%

36%

37%

Don’t know

30%

18%

18%

36%

55%

37%

28%

24%

30%

33%

28%

31% (down 4% since January) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

34% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 41% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Bill Shorten 38% to 28%.

Paid parental leave

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Tony Abbott recently announced that the Government will not proceed with their proposed paid parental leave scheme. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government dropping their paid parental leave scheme? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total approve

59%

55%

73%

46%

69%

Total disapprove

25%

29%

16%

29%

20%

Strongly approve

31%

33%

35%

22%

43%

Approve

28%

22%

38%

24%

26%

Disapprove

14%

15%

10%

10%

12%

Strongly disapprove

11%

14%

6%

19%

8%

Don’t know

17%

16%

10%

24%

10%

59% approve of the Government dropping their paid parental leave scheme and 25% disapprove.

A majority of both Labor voters (55%) and Liberal/National voters (73%) approve.

83% of those aged 55+ approve while younger respondents were divided – for those aged 18-34, 38% approve and 40% disapprove.

Same sex marriage

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2010

Jul 2011

Sep 2012

Oct 2013

Jun 2014

Dec 2014

Should be allowed to marry

59%

69%

48%

90%

48%

53%

54%

55%

57%

60%

55%

Should not be allowed to marry

28%

21%

40%

7%

41%

36%

35%

36%

31%

28%

32%

Don’t know

13%

10%

12%

3%

11%

11%

11%

9%

12%

12%

14%

59% agreed that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 28% think they should not. This is an increase in support since this question was previously asked in December.

Support for same sex marriage is 50% among men but 68% among women. 67% of under 35’s support same sex marriage – compared to 43% of those aged 65+.

Voting for same sex marriage

Feb 10, 2015

Q. If a political party or candidate supported same-sex marriage would you be more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them or does it make no difference to your vote?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

More likely to vote for them

26%

32%

13%

67%

25%

Less likely to vote for them

19%

13%

28%

1%

38%

Makes no difference

48%

50%

54%

31%

35%

Don’t know

6%

5%

5%

1%

2%

26% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate/party that supported same sex marriage, 19% say they would be less likely and 48% say it would make no difference to their vote.

Those more likely include women (32%), aged 18-34 (42%) and university educated (34%).

Those less likely include men (26%) and aged 65+ (31%).

Same sex marriage laws

Feb 10, 2015

Q. Regardless of your opinion about same-sex marriage, do you think it is likely or unlikely that the laws will be changed in the next few years to allow same-sex marriage? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total likely

56%

59%

52%

70%

47%

Total unlikely

28%

28%

33%

22%

37%

Very likely

15%

19%

13%

21%

11%

Likely

41%

40%

39%

49%

36%

Unlikely

22%

22%

26%

19%

27%

Very unlikely

6%

6%

7%

3%

10%

Don’t know

16%

13%

14%

8%

16%

56% think it is likely that the laws will be changed in the next few years to allow same-sex marriage and 28% think it is unlikely.

There was little difference between across groups on this question.

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